RogueWaves

Crazy - there's like no wind here last I looked

GRR Obs

Arriving at work to my first light pillars since 2014 was cool

DTX almost sounds stoked for the arctic fropa potential Active winter pattern then sets up for the midweek period as adeepening mid-level shortwave drops out of northern Canada into theupper Great Lakes. Lead ascent arrives over the central Great LakesWednesday morning tied to lobe(s) of vorticity preceding the mainparent trough. Forecast soundings struggle to reach saturation upthrough the DGZ, instead advertising a shallow saturated layer below800mb that resides between 0 to -8C... which could result in pocketsof light freezing drizzle during the morning-early afternoon period.A transition to all snow becomes likely by late afternoon-eveningwith the arrival of the lead cold front that brings the DGZ downinto the still shallow saturated layer. Better accumulating snowchances arrive late evening-overnight Wednesday as the clippermatures into a closed low somewhere near the northern Lake Huronshoreline. The mid-level trough drives directly over SE MI duringthis timeframe further supported by the level exit region of curvedjet streak at the base of the upper trough. Together these provide asignificant boost to ascent along the arctic cold front that will besimultaneously crossing southern lower MI with forecast soundingsfinally show a notable increase in saturation up to 700-650mb.Expectation at this time is for a quick burst of accumulating snowalong the front with local probabilistic guidance showing ratesbetween 0.1-0.25"/hr being most favored. Fast frontal progressionlimits resident time which should keep accumulations to 0.5-1.5".That said, there is convective instability (50-100 J/kg) thatcrosses the DGZ in some forecast soundings which could boost providea boost into higher snowfall rates.Besides the snow potential with this clipper, wind will also be acause of concern. There has been a gradual shift south with the lowtrack within the ECWMF ENS/GEPS (trend not observed within the GEFS)placing it over either the Georgian Bay or towards Sudbury whichleads to a tighter gradient over SE MI. Surge of arctic air resultsin mixing depths increasing to >6kft tapping into these strongerwinds aloft (35-45kts) offering a chance to see wind gusts at thesurface in excess of 40mph. If trends persist with the low trackingcloser to our area, will have to monitor potential for gusts toreach or exceed 45mph (advisory criteria).

With the amt of snow OTG and not melting beforehand, this clipper brings legit shot at bliz conditions for NWMI Wed night into Thurs. I like the GEM's over all depiction

1/2 inch at home. 10-15" at work. Snowy day!

Buffalo stole that headline.

Gaylord had 24.8" (62.99 cm) in 24 hrs for all-time record day of snow fall Must've been fun, even by their standards If your house were in town. Roof drifts - always a sign of good things winter!

Lived in S. Bend for winters of 98/99/00/01/02. Five yrs when NW LES events were non-memorable if we even had one? Ofc, super Nino '98 was the first yr with like 72F in Feb. Got Jan of '99 and it's awesome bliz and a roughly 3 wk winter. I think Nov/Dec 2000 was the best period but again, not due to any historic LES events.

So, Feb 2021 with 14" at DTW pretty sure that qualified, just not sure how it was up where you are? I was in Marshall for that one, and it was an intense 10" storm complete with some nice winds.

There's no arguing that. Most frustrating thing of my 3 winters in Wayne Cnty.

Begs the question "just what's worth flying home for?" I mean, 12+ not too common in Detroit region.

I think S. Bend's moment looms..

Weren't you in FL during that Feb 2021 storm?

Certainly, early in the season climo does NOT favor SEMI. Feb and March do. Still, MSP had their record season couple years back. I don't think they will own the magnet this winter. I think SEMI will do much better than recent winters and certainly better than last year.

Yep. DTW south to KTOL were in the jack zone. Typical when such an overwhelmingly cold pattern's in place. That's TOL's best and only real chance so I'm not upset if they score in such a pattern. Iirc, GHD-2 also treated them well.

First time seeing a metric snowfall map for MI. Congrats on the LES pounding. But, did you not get buried during the Dec 2022 storm as well??

Feels like a waste here so far. But clipper looms keeping hopes alive.

He's both right and wrong. On this event you want to get inland (due to early season lake warmth) and the better elevations offer the best lift. Harbor Springs/Petoskey does well on a SW flow event, more so if the lake warmth isn't so strong that it forces the streamers to dump further inland. See Dec 2001 as the bench mark when Petoskey scored 84" in that early season historic LES storm. I may check out the Gaylord area tomorrow if I find time. Oh, and getting missed by 5 or less miles. LOL - welcome to LES Edit - and now I see APX's AFD: Lake effect snow lovers around Gaylord and Sault Ste. Marie, take note -- it is hard to draw up as perfect a set up as this, and it does not come around often. Many synoptic similarities described above can be actually be drawn back to the infamous 2001 Petoskey lake effect snow event -- where totals of 80" and unofficial amounts near 100" over a several day span were recorded.

Had my 1st legit winter day and saw my first drifts - in Novi

Let the mood setting event commence..

Thx! Interesting colors

It was cold and very snowy even in S Europe not too long ago. They're riding the same temp's regime coaster we are.

I'm heading the opposite direction Friday, but the lake looks to finally produce just north of here per APX: Significant snowfall accumulations are expected in the usual snow belts of northwest lower and eastern upper, particularly during the Friday into Saturday time frame. Moisture appears to be very robust during that time and forecast model soundings look phenomenal with inversion heights through the roof (or in this case 20,000 feet+). The dendritic growth zone (dgz) which is between -12 and -18 C would be entirely in the sounding promoting large snowflakes which would stack up nicely. Actually, I can`t remember seeing soundings reaching this magnitude for this long of a time period (60-72 hours+). The mean steering flow looks to lock in out of the west northwest but embedded short waves could cause the flow to waver a bit from time to time. Either way, would not be surprised if one to one and a half feet or more of snow falls in some areas during that time. In addition, gusty winds later in the week could lead to considerable blowing and drifting snow. Post Thanksgiving Day travel could become risky at best with near zero visibility likely at times in the snow belts.

Yep. Been a lot of late Nov's that looked much worse for our winter ahead.