RogueWaves

The last time I suffered thru a winter month of CAD was Jan of 2010 but at least we had some snow cover. The threat of CAD is over-hyped

GFS flashing more rainers for most of the Sub..can't wait for my 30 hrs of rain ending in flurries

A 9-day snowfall map from six yrs ago. Was that sh*t even real, or did we just imagine all that??

Now now. Let's not down-play. Multi-year suckage is suckage multiplied! We knew we had it coming after a string of many great ones through this region. Doesn't make it any less pathetic tho.

I haven't found this lack of sampling to be such a game-changer lately. For instance, the OHV slider that the GFS (and others) had as more of a panhandle hook. The slider look was pretty much dominant by other guidance prior to the wave getting ashore, and once it did there wasn't some massive last-minute shift. More or less just nailed the coffin on any last glimmer of cutter/hooker outcome. These last few winters have been underwhelming. Stretching avg snow totals out over a 6 month period with little staying power of any accumulations is no way to run a season. Give me the avg snow total condensed to 2 or even a solid 3 month period. Better yet, an above average amount compressed into same time frame. This is not only yawn-worthy, it's tiring, and almost a waste of time chasing ghost storms on guidance trying to guess which 1 out of 20 threats isn't just another mirage. Has to be better ways to spend one's time; like numbering the shingles on my roof perhaps..

..and 6z Euro more a NWIN hitter. Hey guidance, let's just meet in the middle at my place, eh?

^^^ Man, what did Chicago do to earn such a long shafting by the snowstorm gods??

Nah. Ain't happening. Looks too much like THIS

Not sure it's just the lake shadow in this case since the entire event verbatim is a rain-to-snow scenario, so it's just trying to guess when that transition occurs. Need this colder for all concerned, not just you beach dwellers

31/0z ICON reading you loud-n-clear

Yes

EC has a nice look for that looming d7 threat

effing Nino BS. How bout our La Nada starts acting like one!

I'm sure the GFS/NAM will begin to show it cutting up our way just like the last OHV slider. We know how that worked out..

Me too. 0z was actually friendlier for WMI. Didn't take the secondary so far west. These imbedded troughs rotating thru will have a big impact for my chances and they'll be a last-minute thing to figure out as usual.

Big improvement for MSP from 27/0z

So much for our eastern trough winter. Can we at least do as well in Jan as last winter, and maybe improve a bit on Feb. After that, I'm all spring all the time

Most models have it now. 12z GEM was almost identical to 12z Euro fwiw on the far west end of guidance at 12z Monday morning. ICON furthest east clear over in W NY. Long ways til consensus on track, spin, moisture, etc. Will have a major impact on my chances to score via Lk Mich help. Staying tuned tho. Better than nada to track

Dropped into the 20s overnight again. Hope everyone has a good Christmas and the New Year brings the return of winter. EC showing a system 2nd/3rd for us but too far away to move the needle. Let's see if it can hold onto the idea?

I remember early season Euro "monthly" snow departure maps. Dec was a dud (check), but Jan and especially Feb were AN to much AN. So there's that fwiw.

Which is the opposite of what "low solar" should be bringing us. This 3rd rock from the sun is really screwed up!

This one's actually been decent by this decade's stds (which isn't saying much tbh) December futility rankings this past decade (based on 1"+ snow cover days): 1. 2014 2. 2018 3. 2015 4. 2011 5. 2019? 6. 2012

Didn't Chi-town get lucky with that Christmas '14 system? Razor thin marginal cold but still worked out for y'all. I could see something like that I suppose. Deepest snow around here that month was "T"

It may come a bit south of that in the end, but ultimately for those of us not in the far N or NW of this sub, this is a continuation of last winter's "haves" and "have nots"

Those maps look good on the surface. They say nothing wrt timing of cold/moisture and just how much snow is produced where. Other than that caveat, I have zero issues with 'em.