RogueWaves

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkQTUP7ZEWU&list=UUc9YCB6iO5jmBtQ6yALZMiQ&index=3&t=0s

Ukie qpf thru Wed early morning, so prior to follow-on clipper..

You're gonna get owned this winter..

Actually, Kuchera's got me at 7", vs 6" via 10:1 so as I expected, early season events not likely to be a dry snow. Which is fine, I'm a SEMI native and prefer my concrete mixers over fluff any day!

A thing of beauty for SCMI and now in lock-step with Euro Kuchera maps. OHweather's call looking MONEY

Hey, read their pm AFD, they called "storm cancel" so I guess they got what they called for

0z 12k NAM going bonkers now with qpf over SEMI

Arctic plunge impressive for any month

In the meantime, RGEM thru h54 is hot over my way (and still snowing at cutoff hour)

particularly 11/12z Euro and/or 11/18z Euro Kuchera snowfall (as long as we're asking, lol)

Showed 8-10" north and south of KTOL but 5" there

Novembuary??

Don't look at the Euro's Kuchera snow map

Sheesh, GRR's AFD reads like it's middle of winter.. .DISCUSSION...(Today through next Friday) Issued at 305 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2019 We have three significant weather events to watch in the next week. First is the jet lift event Sunday night into midday Monday. All the models have some version of this event but given how often we get a significant precipitation event when we are in the entrance region of a 140 to 150 knot jet core as a surface wave develops on the front to our south, I would say we may well see enough snow Sunday into into midday morning to cause significant travel issues near and south of I-96. The latest run of the ECMWF has between .25 and .40 inches of water falling as snow south of a line from Lansing to Kalamazoo. We need to watch this to see how this plays out since the jet causing this is part of the reason we get all that cold air Tuesday into Wednesday. The polar jet that causes that surface wave Monday finally gets east of here Monday evening. It is at that time we get into the really deep cold air and inversion heights rise above 10,000 ft. Since we have an east coast storm at that point, winds through 700 mb will mostly be from the north or north northwest Monday night into early Wednesday. So, this will create a narrow but intense dominant lake snow band that for the most part will stay near and west of US-131 Monday night into early Wednesday. AT locations like South Haven there is strong lift centered in the DGZ, which is in the 2000 ft to 5000 ft layer (where the clouds will be). This could be a warning class event (over a very narrow area) during this time. Winds will be 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph with heavy snow falling for many hours in locations like South Haven and Covert. Meanwhile inland of that due to the north winds and the dominant snow band not much will happen, it will just be cold! Maybe a few flurries or light snow showers but not much accumulation. Record low highs are in the mid to upper 20s (27 at Grand Rapids and Muskegon, 29 Lansing and Baldwin, 26 Jackson) so record low highs are more than possible. Even if the sun comes out at inland sites. There is of course another upstream Pacific system that moves into the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. That boots this cold air system east and brings warmer (relative to Tuesday and Wednesday) air back to the area. The warm advection snow event is more than possible Thursday. If that happens most of the area would see 2 to 4 inches of snow before afternoon temperatures warm into the 40s Friday into the following weekend.

07/12z JMA said "go big or go home"! Sure wish there was a snowfall map to go along with

..meanwhile, at my old residence in Traverse. Quite a rare occurrence as all but Kalkaska are at lower elevation and normally don't score on early season LES outbreaks 849 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 10 inches. Locally heavier totals are possible. Areas expected to be impacted by the heaviest snow include Northport, Suttons Bay, the Old Mission Peninsula, Elk Rapids, Acme, Williamsburg, and Kalkaska. * WHERE...Leelanau, Antrim, Grand Traverse and Kalkaska Counties. * WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute.

Should swap roles. Promote the NAM to Global status, and demote GFS to "inside 48 hrs"

Looking like it. That 17" death band I experienced was unforgettable. Has to rank at or near the top for best rates/lowest vis personally witnessed.

Depending on where your line is drawn for the "early start" threshold will make a difference in the outcome. For SMI (not including LES belt counties) I consider anything noteworthy before Dec 10th as qualifying. List of good early starters (post-70s era glory days) = 89-90, 95-96, 00-01, 04-05, 08-09, 09-10, 13-14 Not all early starters are a death knell "used to refer to the imminent destruction or failure of something"

iirc, GEFS had a hot hand last winter too. I'd lean on them over the OP any day

Eerily similar month in progress to Nov '13 when my work place was ground zero for a similar LES set-up 11/12/13. Analog para's are getting spooky.

GEFS seem to be somewhat correcting it's progressive bias, another good sign that this may just come back

12z GEM out to the 14th (h240) Eastern Lakes and upstate NY are buried. What we get isn't exactly chump change

haha can't imagine why??

Not sure on other models, but 12z GFS definitely filled in the MichINDOH region nicely.