RogueWaves

Similarly, if I take last Nov out of last season, it leaves me at only around 75% of avg. I would much rather that Nov snow that never sticks around came as one nice storm in real winter. And yes, 2015 had more than just one BD event so I'd sign up for it quicker than say last winter's JFM. As for enduring these long blah spells to get said BD like in Jan '99 I would agree to the deal since large storms are my #1 followed by deep snow cover at #2, and just any snow cover at #3 priority. Seeing as 2015 featured all of those a similar outcome this winter would be more than welcomed.

12-19-98 I had one remaining marigold near my garage door in S. Bend still alive and blooming. One of the craziest extended autumns I can remember.

GOOD! Since those are just a stupid tease anyways. Now for once, the GFS is telling the truth..

That was a great storm by mid-Dec std's. LOL tho, I was little bit disappointed in my 10" total since just one county south scored the 15" legit Big Dog. Ahh, those were the days (07-10) of action for our Lwr Lakes sub-region.

Easily done in Chicago..

Euro was first to tease with Big Dog event at d6. Then it calmed down. It is an event fwiw, just not ours. This Nov-Dec will end up worse than last year. Next Dec's gonna rock!

Euro Op to 54 does NOT look north fwiw. Need to get some SW to NE tilt going with this thing. (1st wave)

Could it be....climo?

Are you onto the Ops now? Earlier you said to ride the Ensembles to minimize the noise of bouncing Ops.

0z GEM comes in as an almost carbon copy of the 18z EPS mean, and maybe a bit more moist. Edit- Can add 0z GEFS to the "almost carbon copy" list

Clearly the NAM has picked up the torch for us Mitt Peeps. GFS carried it so long it just got tired.

Rumor is RPM gives ORD 5"

A bit far out for 3k level, just from what I've seen. Another look at the 18z Euro EPS mean. I'd be fine with this, especially if we could get a little more juice in the end.

Was a thing...a few years ago

Warm and north seems the way to go at this early time of season.

Sad that we have such confidence in threats/threads any more. What happened??

0z GFS just tried!

Nah, some north, some south. A meet in the middle works. Can we get back to this tho is the question?

Nice trend on the GEFS, let's hope it's legit.

While those maps tell the temps part of the story, I'm more concerned about snowfall (or lack of it). The past (6) Decembers here have such a wide swing in totals, yet when averaged equal 12.96" per year. My long-term Dec avg? 13.0" Snow wise, the month has become bi-polar to the extreme lately with as little as 1.2" in 2014 to 27.6" three years later. I'm not sure there's any such thing as a "normal" December any more.

Thx to a 2" score today, I'm already beating last Dec's total. And, I'm at 20% of my seasonal avg on 12/10. Amazing what looking out on nice white ground can do for one's perception of the young winter. The holiday cheer-O-meter saw a big spike today.

Could it really be any worse? Just going off climo at our latitude would fulfill that statement. But yeah, I agree, somebody's bound to score post-15th. Just tough to say who right now.

Don't look now, but the 12z GFS has back-to-back systems for the Lwr Lakes on Christmas Eve & Day... caught you lookin'

Most upbeat post from you I can remember. Must be the holidays!

And I'll add that this week's chill should put some more ice on ponds, and take more warmth out of the soils. All good things as we step down into what hopefully will be a snowier back half of the month, despite the week 3&4 outlook NOAA's clinging to attm.