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RogueWaves

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Everything posted by RogueWaves

  1. RogueWaves
    To be fair, he did post that he wasn't feeling bad about where he sat.
  2. RogueWaves
    Early on, iirc, his top analogs included 13-14, 14-15, & 18-19 (way back in August perhaps). His inner weenie got the better of him and he kept running with the coldest of that trio (for our region at least) when he'd have done best to hug an even warmer version of 18-19. As autumn progressed he went bolder with the colder, dragging up 92-93 & 02-03 weenie winter analogs for his region especially. Personally I would've preferred that he was correct and it was a colder if not epic snowy DJF here.
  3. RogueWaves
    Was sunny and bright at lunchtime here at KJXN...for a few min's.
  4. RogueWaves
    DAB(+)
  5. RogueWaves
    And waaay too warm. Hard to believe that's a mid-winter scenario
  6. RogueWaves
    13th day of snow cover up my way. Not only a record for this lame winter, but a pleasant shock as well after all the rain and days above freezing here.
  7. RogueWaves
    Sticking with it's single amped wave and north game plan. Let's see if it's a legit trend. Nothing in this garbage bag winter could surprise me less
  8. RogueWaves
    Bad news, it only goes out to h144. Won't be an addition to the d6+ models unfortunately. We need something in that longer range to counter the "G" squad of models and their unstable ways
  9. RogueWaves
    Ofc nothing but cyber-wx is/has shifted at this point. I'll acknowledge a legit shift when a SLP tracks S/SE of mby and (as Hoosier said) produces a non-mix contaminated event around here. Two weeks ago didn't do that. My orig post was looking beyond just next week to the potential the cold finally presses to an EC storm track. Hopefully that does not happen, or at least delays enough to deliver some good systems for our Sub before it does.
  10. RogueWaves
    2-part scenario is how we roll this winter. The key question is whether we can get the 2nd wave of energy to coincide with proper cold air feed and pull it south into a strengthening SLP. Jan 11-12 was an utter FAIL in getting the cold far enough south (regardless of moisture stealing to our south)
  11. RogueWaves
    Wouldn't shock this guy if we finally get a pattern shift, and things start running SE of us..
  12. RogueWaves
    Before even the "Traveler's Advisory" was rolled out, there was..
  13. RogueWaves
    His insurance policy against winter insanity!
  14. RogueWaves
    Wife and I decided to hit the Seasons restaurant downtown Hastings for dinner. Heading across the SMI countryside around dusk the snow scape was pristine whiteness with the sun about to set. I'd almost forgotten how beautiful a real winter's day can be. Plow banks were a good 2 ft high there as well. Got me wanting to see more of this snowy action. 6F currently.
  15. RogueWaves
    To call this winter warm is an understatement. All (3) of the plow-worthy events here have been on days when the temp at some point was ABOVE freezing. Since I live in the city with a modest property, I choose to move my snow by hand as a form of seasonal exercise. Today's messy mixer was the heaviest snow I can remember putting a shovel to, and I'm no youngster. More of the same? Not sure I'm a fan of that, lol
  16. RogueWaves
    wouldn’t be prudent to go with a warning?
  17. RogueWaves
    Called it..
  18. RogueWaves
    Even my office calls this a very impressive WAA scenario as currently modeled. Admitting that the traditional method generates more than the going call. Also pretty much said they went low-end with amounts.
  19. RogueWaves
    Top shelf Traveler's Advisory hoisted for mby
  20. RogueWaves
    16.0z NAM keeps flakes flying for SWMI off the lake for quite a while after passage of the SLP
  21. RogueWaves
    Then the backside kicks in for SWMI. 16.0z NAM with flakes continuing for an additional 15 hrs, and still going at EOR. This could really make up for the Sh*t-show last weekend!
  22. RogueWaves
    Cannot say I blame them nor APX. Their confidence has to be pretty badly bruised at this point. Still fresh from licking their collective wounds. I still think our office has just terrible intuition or something. Seems like when they go all in, things fall apart but when they call for "nothing to see here..move along" things go well or even over-perform. Idk, it's just really strange.
  23. RogueWaves
    Since when is the NAM bullish on the southern edge? Thought that was running N and warm along with the GFS
  24. RogueWaves
    It's our office, duh! Things rarely make sense. If they go conservative, we get nailed. If they go bullish, we get squat. Basically, it reveals where they think things may be worth a "watch". Up their way ofc. The 2-part nature down our way will guarantee they're thinking no headline incoming for us.
  25. RogueWaves
    Seems that way, doesn't it?
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