RogueWaves

Yeah. 0z NAM has SLP way north, tho still keeps me mostly snow/frozen. Not a fan of that look, but WPC actually put most of the Mitt in the Hvy Snow contour with today's release. I'm cautiously hopeful for a 4-ish thump of wetter snow, a period of mix, maybe a not too long window of liquid, followed by a change to backside snow and LEhs>>LES on Sunday (have Snow Likely in my grid for Sunday actually).

Even tho the window may be a short one, I'm seeing a much greater risk of icy roadways with the much colder sub-freezing temps leading into the event. Unlike the last 2, when it was 50s in the morning before dropping to freezing afterwards. Ofc, that's tricky as well, since the main roads should be getting scraped & treated (with temps rising chem's will be much more effective) thus you'd lean towards secondary roads being more likely to ice up, but they are less likely to be scraped and if snow-covered, it will mitigate any ZR. As you say tho, there's the off surface concerns too.

Believe 18z ticked north. Might be noise level tbh..

That's why I relocated to NMI snow belt back in Sept of '90. In my seven yrs up there, I quickly learned that it's not "if" winter is coming, just a matter of when. Normally had all my prep done by Nov 1st to be on the cautious side. As a SEMI native of a large population area, I can say it was a full 3 yrs before that happened for me. Even tho I was on the outskirts of Traverse in the edge of the forest, back before cells, the web, social media, casinos on every hwy, things really quieted down even there (let alone where you are now) during the cold season. Thankfully, Traverse still afforded the some semblance of "city life" like a shopping center, new cinema, etc to keep from going entirely hermit mode. My place only averaged 100" but in several good years scored 200+ but I had my choice of some nice upscale tourist destinations within a 25 mile drive as well as several nice ski resorts which I took full advantage of. Ofc, also had (3) sleds parked in the back yard and access to all the trails heading east across the Northland. Gotta love winter tho, as it was the significant season away from the immediate shoreline regions. There is a huge difference conducting daily life up there too, versus just going up for a get-away play-cation.

FWIW, WPC today sided with 18z Op run, keeping the +SN line NW of Lwr Lakes

Yeah, I don't think this was ever an 1-70 special, nor do I see it becoming one. I-80 crew has at least a shot, but even that's tbd. Might come down to whether you live 10 miles N or 10 miles S of the freeway..

In fairness. Saginaw cnty only showing a 6-8" total per those maps (a little light for mby, so prolly up there as well), so hardly a Major for him. GHD-2 was a pretty rare W>>E big dog just going by memory Mid-Dec 2000 bliz is only other one like it in recent times.

Trying to play on cuteness of this past weekend, lol. Our office notes that 70 members of the Euro & GFS ENS show 3+ and list several positive differences from the weekend disaster. Gotta give this one a shot at breaking our losing streak

@ dryness concerns. May have been mentioned that there should be less convection thievery than Sat's system?

Already called that...especially for Chicago Peeps, especially lake front..you know who you are..

Yep. We all know front-end thumps are a myth in torchy winters like this. (serious tone)

^^^ pretty sure that includes some snow from several minor waves this work-week. At least those west of Lk Michigan who may see flakes instead of 40s

Yep. Somewhere that the snowpack survives 52 and sunny. Where it sits OTG from Nov to April

Not fair to go south just to troll us with worse juju than is already being suffered

Story of this non-winter

Gonna be 1/8 mi vis in the rainer later!

And this map for the Mitt says it all, lol

GFS really liking yby. SR models hanging onto the mix too long over my way. Prolly the marine shadow off the flooded ponds around here..

0z GFS in full-on troll mode for mby

Most likely will do just that

And very warm aloft fwiw. Not sure how it scores tho. Seems to have none of the ice-n-mix all the others show.

Got your April parka image on standby, right??

Like, congrats Calgary?

..guess it's time to pull the skis off, and put the pontoons back on. I swear this winter wants to suck worse than 11-12

I think any system that gains as much latitude as longitude as it heads east could be called a "cutter". Geographic location is irrelevant (unless you are SE of the track, ofc)