RogueWaves

Congrats OH Peeps. Been a long time coming. Merry White Christmas!

Heard the UK's snow shield was a tad S, no?

Fluke tease

If by wintry you mean more than just cold, that's not guaranteed. Especially with Chicago's history. There's another 98-99. Think of it as the evil twin of the more recent. While the EC from Florida on northeast "enjoyed" one the all-time historical (what's the acronym HECS?) blizzards in the nation's memory, Chicagoans dealt with frozen tundra. From that other futility thread: Remains to be seen exactly which "98-99" analog this winter follows, but my hand is primed to move my $$ from the younger to the elder

Dittos this side of the pond

My old place was 1 mile NE of the airport. Whoever has it now, you're lookin good for Santa's arrival

At least you've had snow OTG and 2 foot to date Iirc. Better than so many in this sub.

The dominant N. wave means shifting the focus to any LES potential for me. Euro is Grinchy here in that dept. GFS a bit better and GEM gets my early vote for the global of choice: Through Saturday 1 pm (includes a bit from the incoming clipper here and where applicable):

Seems as that was a much more straight-forward scenario fwiw. Hedging my bets on any model really having a strong grasp on this system at this point. All options seem to remain on the table. How soon do we begin to eliminate those is the question.

Wat? Everyone from NW burbs of Detroit and west made out great with that storm. E Lwr lakes maybe not, but SMI and NIL are also lwr lakes region.

Wasn't every model a rainer there. At least initially til the front gets through.

It hasn't been too quiet for SEMI but it's like a whole different world west of there. Ofc, we just had a nice storm with decent track but lacked cold so we got a nice December soaker. We will need cold or that will wash, rinse, repeat. My concerns about the Nina is broken-down here in these two graphics which shows it leaning warm: As for a list of Modoki vs traditional it may be in here somewhere if you look closely at the analog table: https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/

This is unfortunately a Modoki Nina, and just as Modoki Nino's leave the door cracked for us to make out better than traditional Nino's, the Modoki Nina is less favorable state then the traditional Nina and leaves the door cracked for disappointment. Acting like a Nino so far, and nothing looks too eager to change. I'll be glad if you end up correct ofc. We'll see. The remote viewing of other region's storms does nothing for me personally, and the more awesome it is for them, the more depressing it is for our own sad state of affairs. Keep in mind, you've seen like 5X the snow many of us have.

Next of kin?

I remember back in '85 or maybe '86 Houghton Lake getting 12" in 4 hrs and that was nothing to do with LES. It's pretty rare but once in a while somebody in the Mitt will get some EC-like rates. Just doesn't go on for 20 hrs like over there, lol

would fill-in some blanks for the "have nots" of SWMI

Keep it trending south, thx

These graphics have become way too common

I'd gladly embrace 2011-12 as long as I can get kissed full on the lips by 2013-14 later!

Both analog Nina winters, fwiw

I will give you that map, but I will take the storm

So, 98-99 analog's in play then. great

SWMI just needs a Storm. Period

Good luck over there. Got my 1/2" this morning on grass, deck, car etc. SEMI continues with the hot hand.

One can hope it's onto a trend. Last 3 NAM runs: