RogueWaves

Jan 4-5 2014. Last minute jog/bump N screwed Motown out of dbl digit hit. I dont want too much of a last minute jog, just enough to bump that stripe of 24-30" in NOH up to The Metro here. Like you said, days to go wrt the final wave and what it really does for this region.

Huh? This is the BEST models have sgreed 5 days out since maybe GHD-2

GRR They will latch onto one single model (any of them) and ride it over a cliff. Even at that, while the Euro shafts GR proper, it still clips their far SE counties pretty good and would require headlines for sure, but to read the AFD nobody is getting snow in their CWA. This happened with last Feb's storm as well. My former residence in Calhoun is one of those ignored by that office. They skipped any Watch, went with the purple paint, then after it was snowing sideways and beyond obvious we were getting storm level hit, they hoisted a warning.

Looks a bit like bliz of '82 which really hammered STL, and was very favorable to SCMI on over to SEMI and KTOL as well.

You have to understand. Toledo was hit extremely hard with the intense winds/blowing/whiteouts (a county plow truck driver died when his rig either got stuck or had a mechanical issue and he made the bad choice to attempt to walk to "safety") and a respectable foot or more of fresh snow. Motown on north into the Thumb was a much calmer zone where the center of SLP tracked overhead. It was an extremely sharp gradient, as Ann Arbor just a county west was full-on bliz with 15" and similar winds to KTOL region.

Made me cringe when I saw both IL and IN higher than MI. WHAT??

I remember you being in the jackzone in Nov of 2015 and saying you got 17" and were busting out the sleds. Did I make that all up outta nowhere?

Because the "lore" did not originate from impacts in SEMI. From KFNT south to Detroit was a royal screw zone compared to anywhere else in The Mitt, all of Indiana, and at least half of Ohio. In Genesee county where I was, we had pretty much what KFNT reported, about 8" new on top of a 5" base of compacted prior snows. But that 8" was driven into some incredible drifts (was mostly farmland back then). The snow drifts formed along/around hedge rows of bushes and trees that separated to plowed fields outside my neighborhood. I remember seeing a snowmobile just drive right up and over a ten or 12 foot tree that had been filled with pulverized dendrites so the stuff was like igloo making material. Those WNW winds on the backside were wicked. Even created drifts in our city lots of 3-4 feet. The wild winds made that more than a typical 8-10" storm, at least up in the open rural area I lived in.

I didn't realize we had a near-miss of such magnitude. I remember there being some talk of SEMI getting a storm and that it ended up staying south of the Mitt, but I didn't know it was that potent. Well then, has anyone considered we may be experiencing a similar end of January beginning of February stretch of powerhouse storms like 1978 produced, except we go last this time vs middle back then?

Thread title is a joke btw

IF we were looking at a wound-up strong SLP like back in 2011, then yes Chicago. I think this is suppressed due to weaker SLP not able to push back on CAA,

GFS 6z. So sexy! 1.75" qpf yielding 20-21" total here via KCH formula:

No kidding! I suppose if the Jan '67 moisture bomb was modelled properly, it too would've looked kinda like some of these Euro Op runs, tho the 20+ swath back in '67 was not as wide as what's being portrayed for next week around these parts. Love it! But, N then S then N then S on these Op runs are frustrating some Peeps in here. I'd hang my hat on the GEFS at this point. Until it moves SE a bunch, there's still a good signal for those favored by it.

Nice to see ya in here friend! But I thought you went to AZ. I'm a SEMI Peep since last summer myself - far western Wayne cnty almost to Washtenaw. This one seems to like this region and would fit well with the tradition that says Motown has it's best shot for good snow when it's a bitter cold pattern.

Looks like another 1" paste job

Pretty sure Hawkeyewx said he's had 4 AN winters. Sorry, I'm with Frogtown on this one.

Don't you remember January 30-31st. All kinds of posts how/why that would be trash. Then BAM warnings are flying up left and right. Reading this place made it sound like nothing was happening. It's laughably subdued to the extreme here. Not in a good way if you ask me.

Oz NAM is a white dream over here. 3-5" snows for 8 hrs

I got all of yours. You're covered

There's another sneaky wave on Thursday. It's suddenly active again.

20-21 says hello. (19)20-21 ofc

Or more likely, just a cold-ass rainer and 10 days of -20+ departures in CAD following. Can't wait personally.

Remember back in the day. When the 384 hr GFS meant something to get excited for. That was before they fixed it, ofc. Early Dec 2016. Verified within a couple inches, both home and work.

Ran into a nice burst of snow falling downtown Plymouth yesterday about 7:30 am on my way to the office. It was solidly in the 20's and not melting at all. Had a brief coating and nice flake size. Reminder of what actual December can look like, lol. M-59 is the current divide between the gets, and the get-nots. Hope this crap ends soon, despite what the dearth darlings of Chicago are cheering on.

ZZZZZZZZ