RogueWaves

Exactly why I moved to the Northland years ago. Not always huge storms, but snow is happening every few days, including last night. Gaylord with 18" on the board already, and well ahead of normal. More sig SN very likely Sun night/Monday. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1026 AM EST FRI NOV 19 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0915 AM SNOW 2 N KELDEN 46.24N 84.31W 11/19/2021 M8.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI PUBLIC 0900 AM SNOW 6 W BARBEAU 46.28N 84.41W 11/19/2021 M7.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI PUBLIC REPORT FROM NEAR INTERSECTION OF M-129 AND 15 MILE ROAD. 0745 AM SNOW 6 SE GAYLORD 44.97N 84.59W 11/19/2021 M5.0 INCH OTSEGO MI PUBLIC REPORT NEAR LAKE ARROWHEAD. 0745 AM SNOW 2 E OTSEGO LAKE STATE P 44.93N 84.65W 11/19/2021 M5.0 INCH OTSEGO MI PUBLIC REPORT NEAR CHUB LAKE. 0430 AM SNOW 2 NNE OTSEGO LAKE STATE 44.96N 84.68W 11/19/2021 M4.5 INCH OTSEGO MI COCORAHS COCORAHS STATION MI-OT-17 GAYLORD 4.1 S. 0700 AM SNOW 2 SE ELMIRA 45.05N 84.82W 11/19/2021 M4.2 INCH OTSEGO MI COCORAHS COCORAHS STATION MI-OT-19 ELMIRA 2.2 ESE. 0830 AM SNOW 5 SE GAYLORD 44.98N 84.60W 11/19/2021 M4.2 INCH OTSEGO MI PUBLIC REPORT IN MICHAYWE. 0700 AM SNOW 1 NW WATERS 44.91N 84.72W 11/19/2021 M4.1 INCH OTSEGO MI CO-OP OBSERVER CO-OP OBSERVER STATION APXM4 GAYLORD 9 SSW. 0630 AM SNOW KINCHELOE 46.25N 84.50W 11/19/2021 M4.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI PUBLIC

I was a wx geek and remember the snow depth making national news. Same storms crossed NMI bringing insane depths there too. I just never did get the details on how exactly 2 big dogs hit so close together. Another wild thing on that list is that (3) calendar years (1940,1982,1985) tally up 7 of the top 10 events. The same as Detroit, MSP's top 2 storms happened outside of traditional MET winter. Though you could argue November is much more likely to be a winter month there than down this way to the SE.

Been thinking on this today. Recently moved from 20 yrs in SWMI and over there, the magic number has a lot to do with whether you are in a LES region or further inland. Even at that, Battle Creek and a bit west into Kzoo county had 28-30" during that January 1967 storm, and that was not lake effect enhanced as winds were contrary. Then there's Jan of '78 where the winds were favorable for the lake to contribute and thus some 36" totals were seen. There was even a small region south of Jackson that scored 34" in the '78 monster, and nowhere near a great lake. Marshall had 22" in both of the Jan 26-27 biggies, so for them a 2-footer is "next level" but I feel a solid 30" storm, lake enhanced or not, is looming out there somewhere over the horizon. Just so tough to beat '78 where the lake added significantly to hardest hit regions. Now for SEMI, they already hit the 24" mark way back when but I struggle with thinking that might repeat let alone something on the 30" magnitude. The Tri-cities region will get help off of Huron and Saginaw Bay with a strong NE fetch and there is historical news accounts that 30" fell during the 1857 blizzard. This I remember when reading in old newspaper accounts about the '67 bliz.

Thanksgiving week looks to have potential around the Lwr Lakes.

Steady snow falling for a few hours here. Eye-balling half(+) inch on grass and elevated stuff. Nice little event to transition from endless summer to winter in 3 weeks, lol

Drove over to Ann Arbor this pm, and only maybe 5 miles west you're in the country more or less. I was really surprised how all the color was already finished there and even the hardy oaks were mostly done or completely brown. That's the area that saw some 30's readings one cold morning way back in October. So far back I can't remember the date. Meanwhile, here in the cozy burbs, this past week-ish has seen a last minute peaking of color.

Four seasons playground. I did the move back in Sept of '90 myself. Never regretted it, and often miss it since leaving 7 yrs later for a nice job.

35F and mega-frost yesterday am in Wayne's World (aka Wayne Cnty) SEMI. Welcome to Nov. Welcome to autumn.

Now that's a legit lake shadow!

From past experience. No

I'm calling lake shadow on that!

Not a fan of fast-forwarding from Augtober to flakes. Whatever happened to Autumn??

Could've upgraded parts of the lake to Storm Warning by the sounds of things. Not sure if the areal coverage was just too small to warrant that or just what they go by for criteria.

Yep. Going to start paying for extended summer this weekend the bill comes due. Even the last 3 mornings in the low 40s have felt very cold compared to the 65+ morning lows that have been a common theme this autumn. I like the change into winter, I just dislike being cold, lol

It's true. Nothing plays by the rules any more. 2007-08 analog gives a warm fuzzy, but who really knows. 2017-18 also had a hot October and turned into a pretty good winter for some. It certainly featured one of the colder and snowier holiday weeks in many moons.

This.

Meanwhile over here..

Yep. Entire first half of Oct 2013 was endless summer...then the flip

Several things. A change of life seasons, a new job, and a desire to live in a bigger city all came together in 2021. Thanks for the welcome back! Nothing will top 13-14 for Detroit proper, but elsewhere across SMI (like KBTL) for instance, 81-82 actually beat 13-14 in most snow depth categories, though interestingly, both had exactly the same max depth at 22"

October storms NEVER seem to repeat in January whereas November storms have a pretty good history of doing so. Tbh, September storms like we just had are such a rarity/oddity that I can't even guess at our odds of a repeat this winter but they have to be better than an October storm. After nearly 31 years I have returned to my native CWA here in SEMI. I'm exactly in the midpoint of Plymouth-Canton in Wayne cnty just about 8 miles NW of KDTW. Not really a big metro guy, but this works ok for me. Hopefully I've brought a magnet or luck charm or something with me lol. I moved to Traverse 9-5-90, and 2 months to the day I moved-in was greeted with a 15" concrete mixer storm at my new place. Was there in 96-97 for their snowiest winter of record (200+ mby). Then moved to South Bend that summer to escape such madness of endless white, just to rendezvous with blizzards in '98/99/00 there. Went to Marshall in '02 and got both 08-09 and 13-14 a virtual tie for snowiest/coldest winters in that region at an impressive 100" each. Both my parents were city of Detroit natives. I now reside exactly 20 miles west of where my grandparent's home was a century ago. Talk about full circles. Now my own memory of Detroit's "great winters" would include 74-75 with the December monster, 81-82 with at least 20" depth in much of the region, Jan '99 the last time KDTW reported a 24" depth OTG. Then ofc the more recent great seasons including the record-breaking 2013-14. Oh, and KDTX isn't afraid to issue a "watch", unlike my previous office. As for this week's rain storm, a winter version would've been more akin to the April 1886 2-footer than Jan '78, which shafted this area via the WTOD cutting snow totals in half for a few unlucky SEMI counties including Genesee where I was a youth at the time. Winds were still wicked but only worked with 8.5" of new snow and didn't really hold a candle to Jan of '67 for that region. I feel like I've moved to the least snowy place in my life, but obviously Detroit does have it's moments and I'm perfectly fine if another historical something wants to come around this winter. Pulling for SEMI again!

Was a newlywed in '88. Had an older mobile home that baked with a western exposure all afternoon. Was broke after wedding and honeymoon so not even a thought of buying a window a/c unit. Night-time sleep temp inside was 88F with little circulation. Lost a ton of sleep that summer, then had to drive in an old car without a/c to a job on the top floor of an old building with skylights and zero a/c. Had an extreme case of heatwave fatigue when it was done. 113F heat index at KFNT and freeway grass fires in Genesee Cnty. Yeah, nothing will touch '88 for my personal misery index!

UK downgrades C-19 https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19

I have to wonder how much of that is the "GRR Effect" via conference/coordination calls, lol. Wrt the underlined portion, the most classic one of those scenarios here from GRR was the 1/29/19 PV storm. After 8.8" and 4 hours of legit bliz conditions from the system itself all under a WWA, they then issued a Warning for the follow-on LES which delivered a whopping 0.5" to most of Calhoun. And to be clear, that map they posted above is misleading as it implies the entire CWA got a warning event, when it could be one single county in the CWA and that qualifies to "reset the clock". Aside from the bogus upgrade mentioned above, and the "false warning" of 1/12/2020 (ice storm that never materialized), I just went 1101 days between legit Warnings here in central Calhoun. During that time there were 2 or 3 storms that met warning criteria easily, no question. But, the office prematurely went WWA and just let it ride. Some (20) WWA's to get to Monday's last-minute upgrade. Remember, this is the office that actually issued a WWA for GHD-2 (verified 18-20" monster storm) before correcting themselves again last-minute. PS- I love my office

Looking 8 or 9-ish here on round 2 plus the 1.1" earlier today. Nice little storm. Fun commute home tonight. Drifting was legit in the countryside. Should be a depth around 14-15". Ready 4 more

1998-99: 24" That's your target! Good luck over there