RogueWaves

Its November that has the MUCH stronger correlation with what to expect during the following winter. October's seem to be a mixed signal month but there are some where the indication was stronger and more pronounced such as the mid-month flip in 2013. Seems the winters that want to kick into gear earlier will tip their hand in October like '89 & '00

Ponds around here are 1-2 ft low - shallower ones are dried-up completely. Need a good soaker or multiple events really. But its a multi-year issue that won't be reversed by any single event or even a single season imho. Would like to start climbing out of the hole at least. DTX saying in their winter forecast that NOAA expects to remove SEMI out of the D0 conditions by 1/1/23 based on classic Nina wet pattern for our region.

Not "fretting" but I've just endured back-to-back #2 & #3 all-time least snowy winters personally. I'm musing about a real storm because "there's always next year" gets old quick.

That's the season Skilling cited during the Dec 2000 bliz as a previous season with the rare pre-Christmas bliz for Chicago. We're likely wasting a sig storm currently about a month too early for most at our latitude. I don't see this repeating for the Lakes unfortunately. Ofc, I would've said the same thing about Nov 2-3 '66 storm, but nature came back with Jan '67 instead. My new locale here in the west burbs of Detroit has me truly grasping at straws. With rare exception, the truly big dogs just lift their collective leg and piss on Wayne county with mega-mix and/or WTOD issues. Jan '67, Jan '78, NYE '07, GHD-1 all come to mind. Noted exceptions would be Feb '65, Dec '74, & GHD-2. Just going with that data set gives me a 42% chance of any big storm working out for mby. Not great odds

Normally I prefer 9 or 10:1 snow. But I'm still waiting to see impassable highways as an adult. I do like high winds during snowfall too and low visibilities. It all adds up to a Jan '78 scenario for "storm of choice". They had one here with huge totals back in 1886. Maybe we're due?

South side of Fort Wayne doing better attm. That's gotta be rare

Pretty crazy, possibly historic event unfolding. I had JUST moved to S. Bend in Oct of '97 when SWMI got hit with that synoptic 8" (trees still full of leaves) storm. Did massive tree damage in/around Kzoo. SB was just spared by half a county iirc.

Just sayin..

I remember last spring as a nice one in SWMI. But the only other that comes to mind is 2017 (post-Morch era)

Hello December yikes!

You can blame "classic" far SEMI p-type issues per DTX They're actually forecasting the highest accumulations north of the Metro (as per usual it seems). Shocker!

Circa '93 or '94 I was on my morning commute inland about 6 am. Ran into an (unforecast) 18" LES dump in Kalkaska. It was already done snowing and I have no way to know how quickly it fell. There was a guy driving a small compact Ford on his way to the military base with his hood open and the entire engine compartment was packed tight with snow. I couldn't stop to give him a lift or I too would've been stuck, lol.

What path does that take?

Lol. In October that's close window temps

For once, it's not 131 and west..

I'm sure you did. Canton actually covers a lot of real estate. I see KYIP reported 3.4", and as said, I'd go up to 4" for here, but there was some real bad radar gaps at least twice in this region, so I'd believe that report.

Which ironically scored bigly with yesterday's storm. You and downriver also riding a hot hand with these systems. You've almost doubled my 9.6" combined total for both storms. That's crazy over just half a county non LES events at that.

While you "can't believe low reports around Detroit metro", I can tell you it's true because I'm looking at it here! Seem to have found the ultimate screw-zone for this area. And here I always thought it was a toss-up between DTW and Macomb.

I see, just another NW Wayne "radar hole". This place seems full of 'em.

Stepped out of work a little before 6 pm to legit storm conditions. Windshield was an icy and drifted mess. Scraped half, then went to the other side. By the time I got that done, the first side was covered again. It was coming down heavy. This was in very western Livonia. Just looked out the front door window and it seems to have ended here. Meh at another 3-4" "storm". But it was a nice reminder for a few hours what a real storm is like.

Guess I've been lucky to see 5 in The Mitt. April 2-3. 1975, Bliz of '99, March 2012 (chase to NWMI), Jan 4-6 2014, GHD-2 But! I'm ready for another one. Too bad I moved to a place they rarely visit.

Amazing what real frozen ground can do. I was shocked driving home after work at how much snow was left in places, not to mention drifted areas, and piles ofc. Lots of spring-like puddles tho too. A very March-ish feel

CPC: Chicago and west/SW get the winds. The Mitt - never

West Branch, the Macomb of NMI

Not in the purest sense, no. Streamers coming all the way from Lake Michigan is the classic LES event. Per DTX tho, the environment was enhanced by lake moisture but cells were triggered by an imbedded wave of energy and perhaps that clipper sliding by to the south? I know it was shown on a surface map this pm as a trough running right overhead.