RogueWaves

Yeah, thought you did good then too. That Warning couldn't even cover the grass blades in Marshall. What a disappointing event for me. Looks like this one is treating Marshall much better and will end with a bang tonight. Have you seen any reports from there?

1st legit rippage of the season here attm. 12k NAM gonna nail it with its call of 1-1.5"

Used to be Uncle Ukie's role

Was a couple counties north today and when the new snow began the WC was 11F. Enough winds to lift the couple inches that were on the fields into swirling ground squalls. Drifts were happening in earnest and the real feel was like a solid January day. Just standing outside to pump gas was brutal.

MSF can correct if I'm wrong but looks like my 1st winter headline of the season is an SWS Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 743 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022 MIZ068>070-075-076-200230- Livingston MI-Macomb MI-Oakland MI-Washtenaw MI-Wayne MI- 743 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022 ...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT LIVINGSTON...OAKLAND...MACOMB... WASHTENAW...AND WAYNE COUNTIES... HAZARDS...A band of heavy snow accompanied by winds of up to 30 MPH which can rapidly reduce visibility to near a quarter of a mile. Quick snow accumulation around 1 inch with localized totals near 2 inches by 1000 PM. LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 740 PM EST, a narrow band of heavy snow was along a line from Rochester to near Brighton to near Gregory and moving east at 35 MPH. THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE NEAR... Troy around 740 PM EST. Sterling Heights around 745 PM EST. Mount Clemens and Dexter around 755 PM EST. Novi around 800 PM EST. Hamburg around 805 PM EST. Whitmore Lake around 810 PM EST. Birmingham and Dixboro around 820 PM EST. This includes the following highways... I-75 between mile markers 27 and 71. I-275 between mile markers 8 and 29. I-94 between mile markers 154 and 238. I-96 between mile markers 154 and 192. I-696 between mile markers 1 and 28. US-23 between mile markers 26 and 58.

What'd you/BC get in the Nov 2014 LES event?

GHD-1 was 2011, GHD-2 was 2015 Kzoo (I-94) 14" & 20" respectively GR (I-96) 17" & 8" respectively

And many historic winters started off like this with big LES events for typical places like Nov '77 2-footer at S. Bend, the 17" hit at St. Joseph in Nov of '13 to name a couple. Now we wait to see if the synoptic stuff wants to be a party animal too.

Looking like one for the ages along 94. Been a while since GRR spent so much ink mentioning anything besides "131 and west". After a brief intermission, we will see a very rapid onset of a new round of snow across the northwest forecast area shortly after sunrise Saturday. This event will feature substantial synoptic lift thanks to a deepening and sharpening trough upstream and an associated cold front over Wisconsin that is already producing snow. Meanwhile, farther east over Lake Michigan, the boundary layer will quickly deepen with convective instability exceeding a depth of 10000 ft. This deep lake instability plume is expected to rapidly penetrate far inland, bringing with it an extremely fast onset of heavy snow and poor visibility that should extend northwest of a Muskegon to Clare line by the 9 AM time frame. This area of lake enhanced snow will expand very quickly so that by 1 PM its leading edge will extend approximately from the southwest tip of Lower Michigan to Lansing. Snowfall will be quite intense at this point across far southwest Lower MI. In fact, latest WPC guidance gives Grand Rapids 3-4 inches of snow between 1 PM and 7 PM Saturday. This is the kind of daytime snowfall rate one would expect in mid January instead of mid November. The contributing lake-induced fgen region mentioned previously now looks to be a bit more progressive than earlier thought thanks to the cold font moving in with more authority. Even so, it appears we should see a dominant and more purely lake effect band developing in its wake and persisting through much of Saturday night with heavy snowfall. Unfortunately, this band looks to be closely aligned with I-94, as is often the case in these scenarios. In contrast, areas farther north closer to US-10 we should see a gradual cessation of lake effect snow Saturday night around the same time things are staying interesting around I-94 as described above. In addition to accumulating snow through Saturday night, we are concerned about strong winds increasing the hazards of exposure to cold, poor visibility, and possibly drifting. Saturday`s daytime wind chills may actually be lowest over the southeast forecast area as this is where winds will be the strongest. Drifting of snow remains a concern, especially since we`ve already seen a hint of this here at the office. And they've added winds to 40 mph in the headline wording too. I know you're not the biggest wind geek like me, but you have to admit it's pretty wild for the first real event of the season. And ofc, it finally happens 1 yr after I've moved on.

Yeah, not that that would hurt the cause, but it'd still be the dispersed version, just a bit heavier. To mimic KBUF, you'd have to re-draw the shape of SWMI's coast line so it funneled to a point just west of Kzoo. That'd be about perfect I think.

kinda surprised by more SHSN this evening. Much drier fluffly dendrites than the SNeet last evening. FIrst biting WC's in the teens makes it seem quality Dec

So far it looks like the surface winds are actually cooperating in more or less a due westerly flow. Marshall may finally do ok.

I have not but going on a limb that Greenland blocking is doing it's work?

Per GRR, the worst/heaviest for some may hold off until Saturday. The 2nd Arctic front blasts through GR mid-day. 12k NAM reflecting a pretty intense squall line.

I always know if it's a good "winter" when drifts are from more than just the W. Same could be said about who's getting dumped on with LES.

Oh. Yes that week long LES event in Dec '01 was just stuck on a WSW trajectory making Petoskey the winner in The Mitt. Not even sure what totals were elsewhere. I was really disappointed in S. Bend as that wind direction is a no-go and the potential historic outbreak had been spoken of for days prior.

I'd be ok with that. Haven't even seen a legit rainer around here since Idk when??

I'd wager a bunch of bitcoins that 4" it shows reaching mby here in W Detroit never happens. I think it was the HRRR that was throwing around insane amounts for Chicago burbs just the other day. Difference here for WMI is ofc this is legit arctic front incoming.

I know that, but your post said N Mich, not yby. I was just citing LES events when some places in NMI had those crazy totals KBUF is used to. Most events, sh*t's way too transient. Best bet is Lk Superior to Lk Michigan fire hose. There's been a couple in the last decade iirc.

Same over here. First evening commute with snow on the pavement. Was just a couple mile zone between work and home where there must've been a decent band come through. Looked like a legit snow there. A mile south at my place = another dab so I'm officially at 0.2" for this event.

It's pretty telling that even S Lansing (6+) and W Eaton (8+) have that much on their map. Places like Plainwell-Otsego may rake with this one. Dec '90 my former in-laws got 27" there in 2 days.

That's always the issue, especially for the 2/3 of Calhoun east of BC. If GRR was more accurate (or less lazy Idk), they would use the severe wx warning cone and just issue the warning for the NW 1/3 of Calhoun. How many times did I get excited, only to be very disappointed in a more-or-less false headline for Marshall area.

NOT always. Dec '95 5 feet in The Sault, Dec '01 Petoskey had 7 feet. Just harder without the snow funnel that is Lk Erie, not to mention the even warmer water temps early season.

If you haven't watched, maybe now's the time? The storm was also a thing for Chicago believe it or not..

I'll give you those two. I thought all those juicy rain makers last autumn would yield some good systems in season but nope. Trying to see if the opposite can happen if we go into winter dry-ish, do we then flip wet when it matters for snow? I've seen both work out. In 81-82 cold & wet led into cold & snowy. In 13-14 first half of October was so mild it looked like winter didn't want to happen, then we got cold in Nov but the OHV was scoring snowstorms while we were sunny and dry.