RogueWaves

0z Euro is a Scrooge storm for the ages over here in SEMI. Wave bye-bye as the GFS's westward movement towards the EC's portrayal continues. We're the dryslot capital remember. You in AA ofc might have less concerns. Two prior biggies for SMI had a horrid cut-off east of your area.

Another WV SLP (OH Special). Need to thread the needle with an SLP crossing mid-or slightly east in Lk Erie

Sounds like here, lol

Says my limit is 1.95MB. Wondering why, and how it could be so much lower than yours. And how to get it fixed. Truncated run I wanted to post is still about 2.4MB

Cleared my attachment history, but having file size issue. How big are those files?

I don't hate the GFS 18z. Deepens too late to be a massive bomb storm, but would appear to keep the mixy stuff away. Strong and west I get to perhaps witness some wild atmospheric phenomena, more pedestrian and east gets me a nice timely Christmas gift. I don't mind where I sit either.

IWX Medium range models continue to be in excellent agreement in carving out an impressive pv anomaly into the Central and Eastern US Thursday into Friday. Rapid cyclogenesis and a potent winter storm appears likely given a very energetic upper jet and good moisture return along an associated arctic front. The details (track/intensity/ptype evolution/etc) are obviously highly uncertain at this range with expected large spreads in ensemble low pressure tracks (track overhead with a rain to snow scenario...or east for mainly snow). With that said, confidence does continue to increase for a period of accumulating snow and wind toward the end of the week (Thursday night-Friday), followed by a shot of arctic air and chances for lake effect snow in time for Christmas Eve and Christmas. Headline worthy snow, winds and wind chills are definitely in play. We will continue to closely monitor this system and patiently await lessening model spread in the coming days.

Umm, yeah, right

I see why nobody posts any loops. Silly file size limit

GRR -Late week storm potential Guidance continues to show the potential for impactful storm for the end of next week. A powerful mid to upper-level wave digs down from the Canadian Rockies becoming negative tilted as it enters the Great Lakes region. This system draws up abundant Gulf moisture which meets up with the arctic air advecting in from the Upper Midwest to generate heavy precipitation here in MI. There is still a lot of uncertainty on how much impacts we will see but confidence is on the increase that we will see some winter impacts by this storm. The GFS deterministic has trended west with surface low track...taking it up through the east side of MI...while the ECMWF has is coming over the west side of the state. The Canadian looks a lot like the GFS. These two models would support a heavy windy snow event through the duration. While the track of the ECMWF would support a transition to a period of rain...the onset and backside of that run would still generate winter impacts. The ECMWF ensemble shows plenty of members with heavy snow. Still... much can change on the details...but based on the ensemble trends...confidence on impacts is on the increase starting Thursday and continuing into Saturday.

Pull-back at Christmas 2013 was only thing keeping that same period being like this (8 yrs). Even at that, by NYE a nice system was in progress to be followed by a CAT-4 PV bliz right on its heels. This is about a week earlier and as you say timing couldn't be more perfect unless it cramps some special holiday plans.

It's not a competition per se, since we cannot control the outcome no matter how we wish to. Nonetheless, it oft times feels like a tug-of-war between Subs as to who gets the prize and quite frankly, they win so many more times that I don't feel too sorry for them. They out Big Dog us about 5 to 1. Shame they were left clinging to the GFS at this range as the light at the end of their storm tunnel ended up being a train. They get Ninos, we "should" have a better hand dealt in a Nina -especially a triple that's been lame on the first 2 seasons.

Nice banter on DTX/SEMI bliz warned history. If I did the math correctly (number of total days/365), their map dated back to GHD-1 soon to be 12 years ago. I remember all of SMI glowing in a sea of red headlines. It may have technically verified in Wayne Cnty, but iirc it was 8" followed by dry slotting futility. Not sure bout winds. Northern parts/half of DTX definitely verified, tho pixie flakes were very dissapointing and imho were not the fault of strong winds ('78 was higher for SMI and much larger dendrites due to bombing out SLP). Thumb region of DTX had full-on bliz in Dec of '00 as written in their storm summary. I was in NWIN and pre-wxboard days Idk if a bliz warning was issued for SEMI or parts thereof? We had one issued for S. Bend Your recountings of Feb 2003 are a complete mystery to me. I don't remember those being sig events in Marshall further west. Jan '05 had the 12+ for DTW but didn't go look at daily data - guessing winds were a bit too low? Not sure the headlines issued either. Was in Frankenmuth then and just 5-ish was drifting around there.

Would love to hear some roarin like GHD-1 But for 3 days?? Read-up on '78 my friend

Glancing blow for SEMI. SLP's in TN and WV just don't deliver here as you well know. Still chasing my 2" Grinch storm, lol. E of me, now W of me again. S of me, maybe N of me, or just the old middle finger mega-dry slot this region is famous for. CPC still has me in a risk for +SN/+Wind/-Temps so too soon to throw a towel. This area is certainly the longest running CWA at this LAT without the "B" warned event, and by miles compared to others. I think last "B" headline to deliver was Jan '99. Jan '05 may have been a close call. Been a while that's for sure.

MSP a Palm oasis. Who'd a thunk it

I'll take the over

Mood dab here this early evening even in non-snowland west Detroit

The bigger the potential the bigger the swing and misses for that upgraded, late to the game POS model Edit - not minding where I sit attm

I believe so

He's still active..elsewhere as he said before.

Excited for Wisco (you decide if Sarc or serious)

Euro [c] would be quite the Christmas gift for Chi-town Peeps

Missed this by a day.. As a follow-up I found this from DTX. I'd say this balanced out the bliz of '99 fail for the Thumb region. "Davison" east of Flint is my hometown. This was likely a TOP 3 storm with Jan '67 firmly holding #1 and April '75 in the #2 spot. Been too long since I've seen a good drift-maker (bliz warning of Valentine's Day 2015 to be exact). On This Date in Weather History... December 11 On December 11, 2000, a powerful storm system moved east just south of Michigan, dumping heavy snow across all of the area, with some freezing rain and sleet near the Ohio border. Near blizzard conditions with up to 58 mph wind gusts were found across all of the area, with an outright blizzard in the Thumb. Many schools were closed for two to four days after the storm. Mail delivery the next day was spotty at best, and many businesses and government offices were closed. Specific snowfall amounts and impacts of the storm, by county... Bay: 8 to 10" in Bay City. Genesee: 12-14" fell, along with 4 foot drifts. Flint Bishop International Airport closed in the afternoon of the 11th, and ended up with 14", the third largest snowfall on record. Up to 200 cars were stranded on Interstate 75 just south of Flint during the storm. In Burton, the roof of a window manufacturing company collapsed. Huron: 16.2" in Port Hope. Lapeer: 12-16" near Lapeer (city), with 3 foot drifts. Interstate 69 was closed from Davison to Imlay City. Lenawee: 5.7" in Adrian with some freezing rain. Livingston: 10-15" with 3 to 5 foot drifts. Macomb: 12" across the county. Midland: 7 to 11" in Midland (city). Monroe: 8.5" just southeast of Milan; up to half an inch of freezing rain in Monroe with several trees downed due to ice and wind, and power outages. Oakland: 12" across the county. St Clair: 12.3" near Avoca; 14.7" in Ruby; 17.5" in Yale, 14" in Capac. In Port Huron, 12-20", closing the Blue Water Bridge to Canada. Saginaw: 11" in Frankenmuth with 3 foot drifts, roads drifted shut. MBS (Tri Cities) International Airport had many flights cancelled, and the airport was closed at 830 pm on the 11th. Sanilac: 13" in Brown City. Shiawassee: 15.5" in Morrice. Tuscola: 10-14" in Vassar. In Caro, 16.3" of snow fell with 4 foot drifts. An 18 car pile-up on the north side of town required snowmobiles to rescue stranded motorists. Washtenaw: 8-12" in Ann Arbor; closing Eastern Michigan University for only the second time ever. Wayne: 6-12" across the county; three-eighths inches of freezing rain in Rockwood; At Detroit Metropolitan Airport, 6.1" fell, with 197 departures and 165 arrivals cancelled.

Interesting map. Odd how way far N is latest. Lwr Lakes east of Chicago is one of the latest regions in the CONUS yet still KBUF can rake mountains of LES at the drop of a hat.