RogueWaves

I'm maybe 1/2 mi south of Joy. Just barely in Canton vs Plymouth. New here just since August. Will be first major storm obviously at my current place.

Blizzard of Nov '89 (The Mitt Special) it rained all day on the 15th, well into the night before switching over maybe 10-11 pm. Only 12" fell after change-over where I was in NEMI, but some areas saw 2 feet with the aid of lake enhancement.

And I believe there was a report of 30" a bit to the NW of BC. Out towards Richland? If true, isn't that crazy that depth was hit with 10:1 ratio and not some fluffed-up high ratio storm? Like you said, it's East Coast stuff, not MW stuff what happened in '67.

GR daily data: Looks like there indeed was a solid 8" base on the morning of the 25th as the storm was setting in. Then you add your fresh storm snowfall of about 19" and suddenly you have a 27" depth giving the general public the same feel that a 27" storm from scratch would have given. With all the massive drifting, it's not hard to see why Joe Public equated it with a 2 foot storm. While GR had temps remain below freezing, there were a lot of places S and E of there that actually had melting conditions leading up to the bliz, so their snow was just a crust to get flash frozen, it wasn't contributing to blowing and drifting. Such was the case in Genesee county where I was at the time. OH ofc had rain and 40's so all those huge drifts you see in photos came via the storm itself. Oh, and the 24 hr snowfall record for Michigan is 32" btw. Much more than 24".

Initial Watch boxes issued with overnight AFD packages. Northward expansion in the cards?? Edit to add: This is the first Watch I've been under since I can't remember when. My former office (GRR) didn't issue one for last Feb's storm. Looking back at my records, nothing worthy of more than a WWA from them, until I reach the Feb 2018 over-running event. That would be the best candidate for a Watch issuance. If not then, Dec of 2016 I do remember we got a Watch for that storm. So, 4 years at least, maybe more, lol.

Initial Watch boxes issued with overnight AFD packages. Northward expansion in the cards?? Edit to add: This is the first Watch I've been under since I can't remember when. My former office (GRR) didn't issue one for last Feb's storm. Looking back at my records, nothing worthy of more than a WWA from them, until I reach the Feb 2018 over-running event. That would be the best candidate for a Watch issuance. If not then, Dec of 2016 I do remember we got a Watch for that storm. So, 4 years at least, maybe more, lol.

You can include Jan of '78 monster in that group. Boston was slammed similar to this year, and I believe it was just 4 or 5 days prior to the MOAB here.

Wow, guess I didn't add all those near misses up as potentials for Calhoun/SMI. After all, the region's been waiting 44 years for a widespread CAT-5 hit.

Exactly what I am hoping for. Feb of 2015 I was focused on my former back yard and SR maps painting 22" totals there. Didn't realize Detroit wasn't expecting at least a 15" hit.

We're heading into suppression season, so yes the more SE solutions are legit. Could even argue it is climo to an extent. See 1-31-82, then there's 2003 and 2-14-07 which gave Detroit at least a respectable total despite being an IN & OH special. Plenty of analogs for a N OHV jackzone. We dont have to settle for a strung out POS lame system in Feb. It's this region's prime time.

Jan 4-5 2014. Last minute jog/bump N screwed Motown out of dbl digit hit. I dont want too much of a last minute jog, just enough to bump that stripe of 24-30" in NOH up to The Metro here. Like you said, days to go wrt the final wave and what it really does for this region.

Huh? This is the BEST models have sgreed 5 days out since maybe GHD-2

GRR They will latch onto one single model (any of them) and ride it over a cliff. Even at that, while the Euro shafts GR proper, it still clips their far SE counties pretty good and would require headlines for sure, but to read the AFD nobody is getting snow in their CWA. This happened with last Feb's storm as well. My former residence in Calhoun is one of those ignored by that office. They skipped any Watch, went with the purple paint, then after it was snowing sideways and beyond obvious we were getting storm level hit, they hoisted a warning.

Looks a bit like bliz of '82 which really hammered STL, and was very favorable to SCMI on over to SEMI and KTOL as well.

You have to understand. Toledo was hit extremely hard with the intense winds/blowing/whiteouts (a county plow truck driver died when his rig either got stuck or had a mechanical issue and he made the bad choice to attempt to walk to "safety") and a respectable foot or more of fresh snow. Motown on north into the Thumb was a much calmer zone where the center of SLP tracked overhead. It was an extremely sharp gradient, as Ann Arbor just a county west was full-on bliz with 15" and similar winds to KTOL region.

Made me cringe when I saw both IL and IN higher than MI. WHAT??

I remember you being in the jackzone in Nov of 2015 and saying you got 17" and were busting out the sleds. Did I make that all up outta nowhere?

Because the "lore" did not originate from impacts in SEMI. From KFNT south to Detroit was a royal screw zone compared to anywhere else in The Mitt, all of Indiana, and at least half of Ohio. In Genesee county where I was, we had pretty much what KFNT reported, about 8" new on top of a 5" base of compacted prior snows. But that 8" was driven into some incredible drifts (was mostly farmland back then). The snow drifts formed along/around hedge rows of bushes and trees that separated to plowed fields outside my neighborhood. I remember seeing a snowmobile just drive right up and over a ten or 12 foot tree that had been filled with pulverized dendrites so the stuff was like igloo making material. Those WNW winds on the backside were wicked. Even created drifts in our city lots of 3-4 feet. The wild winds made that more than a typical 8-10" storm, at least up in the open rural area I lived in.

I didn't realize we had a near-miss of such magnitude. I remember there being some talk of SEMI getting a storm and that it ended up staying south of the Mitt, but I didn't know it was that potent. Well then, has anyone considered we may be experiencing a similar end of January beginning of February stretch of powerhouse storms like 1978 produced, except we go last this time vs middle back then?

Thread title is a joke btw

IF we were looking at a wound-up strong SLP like back in 2011, then yes Chicago. I think this is suppressed due to weaker SLP not able to push back on CAA,

GFS 6z. So sexy! 1.75" qpf yielding 20-21" total here via KCH formula:

No kidding! I suppose if the Jan '67 moisture bomb was modelled properly, it too would've looked kinda like some of these Euro Op runs, tho the 20+ swath back in '67 was not as wide as what's being portrayed for next week around these parts. Love it! But, N then S then N then S on these Op runs are frustrating some Peeps in here. I'd hang my hat on the GEFS at this point. Until it moves SE a bunch, there's still a good signal for those favored by it.

Nice to see ya in here friend! But I thought you went to AZ. I'm a SEMI Peep since last summer myself - far western Wayne cnty almost to Washtenaw. This one seems to like this region and would fit well with the tradition that says Motown has it's best shot for good snow when it's a bitter cold pattern.

Looks like another 1" paste job