RogueWaves

Mowed my lawn yesterday. Summer annuals still presenting color, and my rose bush has 4 blooming flowers. Still plenty of leafs on trees as well. Highs may be running 10F under, but lows definitely are not, at least around my region.

Not sure if you're a fan of analogs or not, but most of the serious ones include such. Some, if you go way back would be on the historic/epic level. As you mentioned, we've already seen the all-time October low temp record set for the CONUS. Not to mention all those records from 1917 that Denver's been knocking off left and right. I personally feel there's a good shot at it. And I don't mean a 1 or 3 day PV swing-thru seen last January and in Jan 2014.

..saved that for posterity. If only..

Bunch-o-white rain here. Temps just couldn't get there in time to accumulate. Let's do this again in a couple months.

Cheers to a theme for this winter

Last couple storms have had more W or WSW vectors really hammering Holland and north. This will be more traditional N or NW so the misery will be shared further south with this event.

Upgraded to WWA here. Lake band gonna rock later on this side of the big lake too .UPDATE... Issued at 951 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Observations as of 9:50 AM indicate our current rain/snow line lies along a line from Muskegon to Big Rapids with snow falling north of that line and rain/drizzle falling south. As this area of mid- level f-gen forcing shifts east, all precipitation across lower MI is expected to transition over to snow through the afternoon and evening. Pockets of particularly heavy snow with low visibility and hazardous travel will be conceivable along the lake-shore thanks to a possible lake convergence band. Slightly higher snowfall amounts than previously forecast will be feasible, with up to around 2 inches possible for most areas south of I-96, and higher amounts up to 3-5 inches possible to the north, especially in higher elevations. Despite warm ground temperatures, if snow rates are high enough, heavy, wet snow accumulation will be possible on roads and lead to hazardous travel particularly on bridges and overpasses as gusty winds lead to efficient cooling. In addition, scattered power outages will be probable as heavy, wet snow accumulates on trees, some still carrying leaves, alongside gusty winds to 35-45 mph this evening.

Should start getting it's act together..

Windy City gonna live up to it's name for Halloween. I'm hoping to transition by 21z over here.

0z NAM drops SLP 19 mb in 21 hrs tomorrow. Robust

I was so dry for (10) wks during the heart of summer, it's great to see moisture picked up as we head into the cold season.

Every NAM run yields a little stronger storm in N Huron. Euro's not far behind in this scenario (990mb)

SPC had a low risk for "near blizzard conditions" for that area showing, even a few days back. Looking more likely as we get closer.

First hint GRR's coming around.. AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 307 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019 LATEST UPDATE... Synopsis/Discussion/Marine .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019 - Rain Wednesday - Rain mixing with snow at times Wednesday morning - Rain gradually changing to snow Thursday - Hazardous travel conditions late Thursday into early Friday

I'm in the same boat with ya. GRR has been down-playing any chance with this synoptic threat to this point, but with models continuing to up the ante they may finally get on board.

Here are some of the snowiest Octobers at Grand Rapids Michigan. Most went on to be good to in some cases great winters for cold-n-snow. '67 and '97 Nino's being the exception. 1967 8.4” 1925 7.5” 1989 5.8” 1917 3.0” 1962 2.6” 1997 2.6” 1992 2.4” 2006 2.1”

That's what holiday lights are for..

Yeah, same sh*tty gradient bisecting my county as with every storm last Feb. Honestly, I wanna puke when I see that

KBUF going all in on a more wound-up wind-maker I see. Certainly been a theme this past 30 days.

Nice to see the 1/2 county NW of mby teasings picking up right where they left off last winter

Lake shadow + Heat Island = IDK??

Yep, 18z NAM(s) have snow up to west burbs by Wed evening. That came outta nowhere

Best of luck bud. Euro track looks like perfection ORD to DTW smack-down later in winter. Patience to all..

Continue to parse the data. Bottom line, the lake is not your friend w/early events

Wave 1 only? 2-wave combo on TT is much more. Map includes sleet tho fwiw. I like the bombing low portrayed but still amounts to non-accum's here. Just a couple weeks early for this area to go big.