RogueWaves

Had biz in Kzoo Saturday and it was so nice afterwards decided to head west into Van Buren where they only had a few inches of system snow, but took a nice hit with that LES streamer the next morning. I'm sure it was more impressive several days ago, as LES compacts so quickly, but it was still impressive for early Nov and gave off that mid-winter vibe.

Hmm.. Euro picking up on the colder air and now just starting to hint at a swath of snow S Plains to Lwr Lakes next weekend. Appetizer to T-Day smorgasboard event?

/\ Now, just add cold and high-lat blocking that models haven't been reading well worth a crap from d10 range, and voila! We're in the game. Gonna double-down on what happened with Vet's Day storm. Heck. that wasn't seriously picked-up by models at this range. Don't think they even flashed an organized surface reflection, yet look where it trended. You'll have a thread soon. #goodtimes

I appreciate your excellent write-up. Via early settler reports/stories the winter of 1842-43 across SMI was very early and incredibly harsh. Do you have any indication from your data if those kind of conditions extended eastward as far as Toronto? So little official data that far back. Lansing is the oldest record I'm aware of around these parts, and it stops in the 1860's.

Not so fast.

It's over folks..

Deedler on November 1880 cold wave versus this week's and/or Nov 2014. (complete with maps) https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/

Yeah, this just comes and sits on us. Doesn't seem too eager to warm up out there as my highs today were in the low 40's not long ago. Forecast dropped even since morning now expecting just 33F

I think his reasoning is more along the lines of the clash zone between warm waters east and arctic plunges west will make for stronger storms in between. Not unlike what just transpired. Also, he is only one of several calling for such. This fits well with what we've already seen wrt systems getting amped in and near the GL's. It's ofc been focused more northward as it's early yet. In the heart of winter months, it may well be that some strong systems end up tracking favorably for the OHV/Lwr Lakes. It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility. His earlier pre-lim forecast was calling for the blizzards more for the EC/New England if that makes anyone feel better? His recent final call, he adjusted that westward a bit as seen. Nobody has a crystal ball in LR seasonal forecasting, but the attempts to score with it have been improving little by little. Personally, early cold-n-snow around SMI will mean one of two things. Half the time it turns turd and flips warm/boring following (see last year, most strong Nino's, etc.), the other half continue the theme and end up being good winters, some even great winters. Nobody really knows until it's a wrap. Notice, he didn't just say run of the mill blizzards. He said BIG Blizzards! haha

This is most likely the biggest snowfall report I've personally seen in the Lwr Peninsula of Michigan in all my years of following wx. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 212 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2019 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0211 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 W SUTTONS BAY 44.98N 85.72W 11/12/2019 M31.7 INCH LEELANAU MI TRAINED SPOTTER 36 HOUR TOTAL ENDING 200 PM.

We's has decided the Mitt no longer warrants watches or warnings for synoptic snows, citing the inflexibility of the tools, and the difficulty in their deployment. 'sides, synoptic snowstorms really ain't that bad around yby's. Your welcome..signed, GRR

I propose a cost-cutting measure. Break up their CWA to surrounding offices. I'd gladly be re-located to IWX

May have to retract your prior post on the 10" amts. I'd gladly take that bust any day

The more you can score, the better chance with the record low shot, eh?

I work basically 1/2 mile from KJXN and we've been at 1/4 mi vis for hours. Would eye-ball it at 5-6", beating even the 12z hi-res calls of 3-3.5" by 18z. Quite the impressive performance for any date, let alone first half Nov I see GRR's graphic per their update with web-cams along 94, the upper left is the Marshall rest area. Cars getting buried here in the lot. Going to have fun digging my way out later on...

0z NAM and RGEM in lock-step here, bringing 6" SLR/ 7" KCH totals in next 24 hrs. I'd be fine if we could lock that in.

@ lake shadow

18z NAM has me bumping up against 3" by 7 am, and shows 9-10" jack zone for Calhoun & Jackson Cnty's (my work region). Those totals would rival Nov 2-3 1966 for this region's largest early November storm of record.

Guess I missed the 1984 score, and totally forgot 1966 hit Detroit, not only further west. All others were indeed prior to DTW's existence as I figured. Thx for posting.

This is one (and only one) issue I have with my office. Leaning on american guidance over proven king of consistency

Before it existed would be my guess

6z HRDPS was moist across most of SMI. Even the 10:1 map is eye candy

Scored 15.2" here last November for 3rd all-time. Battle Creek just half a county west hit 24+ for #1 (records to 1895). This could go down as 2nd snowy November here after a long stretch without much of anything.

To wear while arm wrestling A-L-E-K for the primary storm track? Could both end up winners. '78 is Chicago's #2 all-time snowiest after all, barely beaten by '79