RogueWaves

And I'll add that this week's chill should put some more ice on ponds, and take more warmth out of the soils. All good things as we step down into what hopefully will be a snowier back half of the month, despite the week 3&4 outlook NOAA's clinging to attm.

It is, followed by windy SHSN which even per the GFS's own output amounts to very little south of NMI snow belts. I wish the models would just quit already with the teases.

Yay! Thx for the good news..tho not surprised.

Euro won't "let go the bone" on a GOMEX Low next Friday

Nah..ride it!

Christmas Eve 2014 was plagued with this same lack of true cold air and didn't produce much south of Canada! This is at least "trying", tho as you say, it's still fantasy range attm.

This would be such a kick to the junk! Ideal path west of the Apps, just to be lacking decent cold. Rub your's rabbit's foot, feet, or whatever works to keep this from happening!

My office hitting the LES potential next Tue-Thu pretty hard. With any luck, I could get a period of favorable fetch somewhere in that time-frame and add some bonus amts.

2013 to date vs current season to date comparison. Looks to my tired eyes that we be out-pacing at this early stage: 2013-14 Season. Yeah, I could do 8+ feet again

Sounds like my winter of 1994 in NMI. I totally get it

Will be a sad day in the wx world if nothing noteworthy comes of such an arctic intrusion as being depicted. Seems like something would take advantage of such a dynamic movement in the upper levels.

True dat, sadly.

I'd be real leery of getting burned by a d10 suppression scenario off the GFS - just sayin'. But ok, Memphis is going from zero winter to 2 feet..

Chicago officially jinxed - TWC likes you for the Mon-Tue storm..

It still has it's known biases. But, at least they're a known quantity, lol. It should be catching on any day now. I like the GEFS current projection. Need a little slower, a little more phasing, and a little less cutting of the SLP and I'll be in the game.

We really need some snow threats around here, and fast!

Yeah, after all it's "winter cancel season" lol. With all the stellar analog seasons, both recent and long past, it will be a truly epic fail if this turns turd for S MW/GL's/OHV. Bill Deedler's outlook (focused on SEMI ofc) contains an analog list that leans "yesteryear", but man what a list. We are talking winters of yore for cold, snow totals, and strong storms/blizzards. Now, if you also allow for the fact that many of those seasons 40-100+ yrs ago did not benefit from the current high-moisture era, the potential for an incredible season is lurking in there for at least some portion of our Sub. Roger likes Chicago, and indeed Deedler's list contains 78-79. Others like the SST's and blob alignment to reflect 2013-14, while others would go 02-03 putting the bonanza zone a bit further S and E in the OHV. A combination of those (3) analogs mixed with others that featured more dynamic storms is my personal vision of the winter ahead. I'm not into trying to predict actual snowfall amounts, but I do like our Sub for an above to well above normal snowfall winter. If pressed, I'd lean towards an ORD to DTW winner's circle with DTW edging ORD in the positive departures column.

Euro drumming up an OHV special 12-13th ish

I think your post over there in his thread was dead-on for Chicago, it's a 50-50 dice toss going forward after such a snowy pre-season. My gut tells me that while ENSO/SST/Oscillations are indeed less than stellar verbatim, some items he mentions may indeed come through in the end. One of significance being the MJO. Notably here, 4 of the last 7 Novembers have had BIG snow totals against my 1.2" long-term avg. Sometimes in one huge storm, other times in multiple lesser events. During that same 7 years, 3 Dec's have been complete "no shows", but I've also scored 3 huge Dec's with 2019 looming as the "tie breaker" thus a microcosm of your analog list for Chi-town snowy winters. I won't say this December will make or break the entire winter, but it could go a long ways toward helping this winter stand out from the crowd.

SSW gone wrong, sigh..

Best case scenario is that a weaker lead wave could tug the thermal boundary south enough enough so the main wave ejects further south.

Yep, fun week even if we're not in the snowy side (most of us)

Let's keep dropping 10 or 12 mb off each storm as they track thru the Lakes. Eventually one of these will be cold enough to deliver the real-deal LES event. (may also erode the lakeshore to mby at the same time)

I guess with 2 storms in our general vicinity already (10/31 & 11/11), we get to sit on the sidelines for a bit.

..just 4 fun