RogueWaves

Congrats on an over-achiever storm up there! Drove thru on 23 Saturday and snow at that point may have been a bit less than down here. Hard to say as the freeway median is notoriously a poor example of surrounding areas. I'm recently relocated to the west burbs (Plymouth-Canton) but seriously considering moving up to Fenton when my lease is up this July. Not because this is "Shaft City" when it comes to snowstorms. I have a sister in Fenton and other fam up that way (Genesee and Saginaw counties). Plus, my sister's apt is like an expensive custom-built home for 2/3rds the rent I'm paying. I'd be back to a sizeable commute, but other than the occasional day like today, mostly it's not a bad one if I stay away from the 96/275/696 triangle of congestion. After many years with often large commute distances, I have/am enjoying having just an 8 mile drive to work. But it's hardly worth "the rent", especially for this drafty old place. Fenton's a nice little community similar to Marshall where we moved from. I like the upscale touristy downtown. It also has all the chain stuff out by US23 that we didn't have in little tiny Marshall so there's another bonus.

Call it "warm nose" or last minute bump N. DTX's write-up this past evening (2/2) plainly said, the good forcing with higher qpf ended up 2 to 3 counties N of where the models said it would be for the past "X" number of days. The models were blind to this sudden over-achieving bubble of warmth. This may be the biggest screwing of the pooch by models since Dec 2012's bliz when the Euro insisted the SLP would traverse south of The Mitt over to KTOL. Was just laser-locked on that solution (until the SLP ran right up into SWMI and on top of our heads). As for inflated Kuchera maps, WxBell's Euro product seems to be the biggest offender in that category, one time showing a 29" total here for the Metro. Ofc, that's highly suspect knowing the climo and Big Dog history so easy to discount that/those maps. But, GFS was routinely showing this region (W Wayne) around 19 or 20". While still a bit of a reach, it was at least more believable that after necessary adjustments, we'd have a shot at a legit 15+ Big Dog level storm. That's exactly what it looked like right up to and including the Watch issuance, and subsequent forecasted totals map showing 12-16". There's no way you can paint this as anything BUT an epic FAIL on the part of the guidance that everyone, including the NWS Mets rely on to "get it right". Ofc I'm disappointed, but deep down a part of me never really bought into this map, so it's not as painful as it would've been.

I drive a 2x1 and had zero issues today. This was like a late Oct storm in NMI.

Very difficult to even imagine #1 happened. But I guess there are photos. I mean, it was the 1880's

I'm maybe 1/2 mi south of Joy. Just barely in Canton vs Plymouth. New here just since August. Will be first major storm obviously at my current place.

Blizzard of Nov '89 (The Mitt Special) it rained all day on the 15th, well into the night before switching over maybe 10-11 pm. Only 12" fell after change-over where I was in NEMI, but some areas saw 2 feet with the aid of lake enhancement.

And I believe there was a report of 30" a bit to the NW of BC. Out towards Richland? If true, isn't that crazy that depth was hit with 10:1 ratio and not some fluffed-up high ratio storm? Like you said, it's East Coast stuff, not MW stuff what happened in '67.

GR daily data: Looks like there indeed was a solid 8" base on the morning of the 25th as the storm was setting in. Then you add your fresh storm snowfall of about 19" and suddenly you have a 27" depth giving the general public the same feel that a 27" storm from scratch would have given. With all the massive drifting, it's not hard to see why Joe Public equated it with a 2 foot storm. While GR had temps remain below freezing, there were a lot of places S and E of there that actually had melting conditions leading up to the bliz, so their snow was just a crust to get flash frozen, it wasn't contributing to blowing and drifting. Such was the case in Genesee county where I was at the time. OH ofc had rain and 40's so all those huge drifts you see in photos came via the storm itself. Oh, and the 24 hr snowfall record for Michigan is 32" btw. Much more than 24".

Initial Watch boxes issued with overnight AFD packages. Northward expansion in the cards?? Edit to add: This is the first Watch I've been under since I can't remember when. My former office (GRR) didn't issue one for last Feb's storm. Looking back at my records, nothing worthy of more than a WWA from them, until I reach the Feb 2018 over-running event. That would be the best candidate for a Watch issuance. If not then, Dec of 2016 I do remember we got a Watch for that storm. So, 4 years at least, maybe more, lol.

Initial Watch boxes issued with overnight AFD packages. Northward expansion in the cards?? Edit to add: This is the first Watch I've been under since I can't remember when. My former office (GRR) didn't issue one for last Feb's storm. Looking back at my records, nothing worthy of more than a WWA from them, until I reach the Feb 2018 over-running event. That would be the best candidate for a Watch issuance. If not then, Dec of 2016 I do remember we got a Watch for that storm. So, 4 years at least, maybe more, lol.

You can include Jan of '78 monster in that group. Boston was slammed similar to this year, and I believe it was just 4 or 5 days prior to the MOAB here.

Wow, guess I didn't add all those near misses up as potentials for Calhoun/SMI. After all, the region's been waiting 44 years for a widespread CAT-5 hit.

Exactly what I am hoping for. Feb of 2015 I was focused on my former back yard and SR maps painting 22" totals there. Didn't realize Detroit wasn't expecting at least a 15" hit.

We're heading into suppression season, so yes the more SE solutions are legit. Could even argue it is climo to an extent. See 1-31-82, then there's 2003 and 2-14-07 which gave Detroit at least a respectable total despite being an IN & OH special. Plenty of analogs for a N OHV jackzone. We dont have to settle for a strung out POS lame system in Feb. It's this region's prime time.

Jan 4-5 2014. Last minute jog/bump N screwed Motown out of dbl digit hit. I dont want too much of a last minute jog, just enough to bump that stripe of 24-30" in NOH up to The Metro here. Like you said, days to go wrt the final wave and what it really does for this region.

Huh? This is the BEST models have sgreed 5 days out since maybe GHD-2

GRR They will latch onto one single model (any of them) and ride it over a cliff. Even at that, while the Euro shafts GR proper, it still clips their far SE counties pretty good and would require headlines for sure, but to read the AFD nobody is getting snow in their CWA. This happened with last Feb's storm as well. My former residence in Calhoun is one of those ignored by that office. They skipped any Watch, went with the purple paint, then after it was snowing sideways and beyond obvious we were getting storm level hit, they hoisted a warning.

Looks a bit like bliz of '82 which really hammered STL, and was very favorable to SCMI on over to SEMI and KTOL as well.

You have to understand. Toledo was hit extremely hard with the intense winds/blowing/whiteouts (a county plow truck driver died when his rig either got stuck or had a mechanical issue and he made the bad choice to attempt to walk to "safety") and a respectable foot or more of fresh snow. Motown on north into the Thumb was a much calmer zone where the center of SLP tracked overhead. It was an extremely sharp gradient, as Ann Arbor just a county west was full-on bliz with 15" and similar winds to KTOL region.

Made me cringe when I saw both IL and IN higher than MI. WHAT??

I remember you being in the jackzone in Nov of 2015 and saying you got 17" and were busting out the sleds. Did I make that all up outta nowhere?

Because the "lore" did not originate from impacts in SEMI. From KFNT south to Detroit was a royal screw zone compared to anywhere else in The Mitt, all of Indiana, and at least half of Ohio. In Genesee county where I was, we had pretty much what KFNT reported, about 8" new on top of a 5" base of compacted prior snows. But that 8" was driven into some incredible drifts (was mostly farmland back then). The snow drifts formed along/around hedge rows of bushes and trees that separated to plowed fields outside my neighborhood. I remember seeing a snowmobile just drive right up and over a ten or 12 foot tree that had been filled with pulverized dendrites so the stuff was like igloo making material. Those WNW winds on the backside were wicked. Even created drifts in our city lots of 3-4 feet. The wild winds made that more than a typical 8-10" storm, at least up in the open rural area I lived in.

I didn't realize we had a near-miss of such magnitude. I remember there being some talk of SEMI getting a storm and that it ended up staying south of the Mitt, but I didn't know it was that potent. Well then, has anyone considered we may be experiencing a similar end of January beginning of February stretch of powerhouse storms like 1978 produced, except we go last this time vs middle back then?

Thread title is a joke btw

IF we were looking at a wound-up strong SLP like back in 2011, then yes Chicago. I think this is suppressed due to weaker SLP not able to push back on CAA,