RogueWaves

Could we have a dry winter, and still have a decent amount of snow?

Not a wet look - anywhere. And tomorrow's event will be a day late to help November.

Hoping the MJO visit to the warmer phase(s) is not a prolonged event.

I was hoping to score the streamer to really make the event an over-performer. But hey, no complaints on verifying an 84 hr NAM run, lol

Congrats seems you have a magnet going again for these potent streamers.

I saw Wyandotte in the Squall Warning. How was it for you? mostly S of me, but the 0.5" took me to 2.1" for the 2-part event.

Been on/off pouring here since noon. Despite the steady 33F most everything has a layer of white. What one more degree could've done, lol. Certainly impressed with a nice performance on a S wind, warmest hours of the day, and very little climo support for acuumulating snowfall when Thanksgiving comes earlier. Anyhow, beats what many east of me have going on like noted by@Stevo6899

It was WAY off regarding the KS snowstorm, but at least we are getting some of that shown in SMI. I'll consider that a win being it's only Nov.

I 2nd that. Who's ready for Lions football, turkey dinner, and measurable snowfall to round out the holiday weekend? DTX:

Cold HP's have been plunging down just east of us so it's a matter of time until it is cold enough to make the storms dump on NY/New England. Nino hand writing on the wall.

11/8 was a significant system for much of SEMI but north of the 94 corridor unfortunately. Now we are about to get the 2nd sig system so while there has been a lot of pleasant sunny days, it hasn't been a total snoozefest. Hourly showing 0.82" at DTW. Hoping for an over-performer. Late morning looking quite raw with WC's in the 30s and ongoing SHRN.

From my post on another forum Not sure 15-16 was the best example to use, but it just came to mind quickly. It wasn't as bad for some of us as say 97-98 which might be the most classic example. I was having basically this same discussion with a poster from NWI where they've had a very slow start and he had posted how NWS Green Bay said "yep it looks like Nino's in full effect already". As @michsnowfreaknoted, it's actually NOT acting very Nino-like aside from the freak Halloween clipper thingy. I like the current system. Basically the same S Stream track that treated DTW favorably last winter. We just need cold air. Temps were so marginal with every event last year. Maybe this gets colder JFM and acts more like a Nina. As long as it doesn't mimic 11-12

Dec '14 incoming

DTW's coldest high since the 1st. Currently in the 30s with a WC below freezing as a system heads this way. I'm fine with this for November. This is better than a premature snowstorm like say 11-11-19. If it's going to be split-flow, aka S Stream dominant then we just need it a bit colder than last winter which basically featured that same Nino styled pattern. A repeating theme has been these cold pools of air just NE of here (where it is currently in the 20s) feeding into this region. Not ideal, but work-able imo.

Recent systems (except sneaky one on 11/8) have all fizzled out as they came this way, fwiw. I am watching this Tue-Wed S Stream system in hopes it actually has legs and doesn't crap-out. Would boost my hopes for winter a bit.

Yesterday, all 3 globals were going for the mega-phase (I guess Ukie wasn't up for the ride) though so it seems that they were seeing something favorable for that outcome. Are the models just bad in unison or are they wired to lean towards any potential high-impact scenario on behalf of Joe Public's safety? Legit asking if you have any intel in that regard since I have often wondered why they go that route many times and it almost always unravels in the end.

I did. Look closer, the 4.2" was my largest single day total. Early February was 5.6" for two days. The 17th was just 4" and there are other reports and maps to back up those sad numbers here. Thx for the reminder tho.

21-22 gave us back-to-back clipper hits twice. In late November and later January as well. Nov 27th was actually my largest single day amount the entire winter at 4.2". The clippers were far and away the better systems for me that winter from a forecast to verify perspective.

Some wind and perhaps mood flakes for the rest of us outside the belts. A month later, and I might get lucky like last Christmas day.

Did that my first year in NWMI. Apparently the poor tree was in hibernation mode and coming into my warm living room was fooled into "false spring". The main leader grew 12" and was curling off my ceiling. After that, I never did it again.

SEMI the only ones experiencing these extreme temp swings? AA with a 42 degree flip today, beating yesterday's 31 degree delta.

12z Euro trying to make the holiday week much less boring in the wx dept

For sure. He said it was "first time in history" when he would've been more correct to say in our brief recorded history of the weather/climo. Quite certain the period I mention had much warmer temps during that era when Europeans were able to colonize Iceland for a few hundred years before the climate pendulum swung back the other way and headed into the little ice age.

Medieval warm period says "hold my palm tree"

I believe the week after Thanksgiving has the better potential. But we'll let the models continue to sort things out as usual.