Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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It seems like it's further north and slower than most 12z guidance.
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The severe is overperforming so not a bust.
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Hmon and HWRF still have wind trajectories that look like they are sucking water out of the bay rather than pushing it in, and from this storm size/shape it would have to track way north through Port Richey for TB to get the maximum surge.
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Sorry gotta binge watch another 12-18hrs of Goes-16 porn.
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GFS looks like it's over Bradenton 6z Thursday.
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Not a good day for tech tycoon billionaires to have their luxury superyatches out there.
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It matches Hurricane Dean pretty well in size and intensity.
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The Adt page says 903mb 155kt. Accurate for once.
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That's every global model showing landfall within about 10 miles. Amazing agreement, this didn't used to happen. Even 10 years back models would have a much larger spread 36 hrs out.
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Hurricane models actually did a good job forecasting an ERC and multiple intensity peaks. Dorian actually did a similar thing. Maybe not an ERC, but there was a pause in the intensification for almost a day.
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There is pretty low spread in the 12z tracks so far. GFS, Ukmet, Icon , Jma and even the cmc all track over Longboat Key from what I can tell.
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The cdo ring is still cooling FWIW. Maybe 5mb between passes is just noise for storms this deep.
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Raw ADT up to 7.8. It still has a ways to go to beat ETAs record of 8.4.
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The VDM says 899mb. I don't see a dropsonde yet.
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898.6 mb extrapolated
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Could be where it's at currently. My guess is it's leveled off there about an hour ago and has been steady every since.
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RAW T number up to 7.6 now, this is the highest in the basin since ETA.
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Not with a single recon flight. I think Wilma deepened a lot between flights. Eta did also, the recon had to abort due to turbulence. I hope they're staying safe in this one. I'd be nervous.
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A 32mb pressure drop since the start of the recon fight. I think this rivals the one flight into Opal if I remeber correctly.
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The organization is still improving on IR.
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I'm falling asleep now so of course it's RI time.
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Lets see if we finally get the recon pass with the 5mb pressure drop from the last one. So far it's only been 1-2mb between passes.
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The GFS is just really darn slow this run. Edit: GFS is still a northern outlier, unless you include the NAVGEM.
