WeatherMonger

SREF plume didn't change a whole lot. 4.5"

Well crap, guess I put the jinx on

Been awhile since we've had a good clipper. I'll take the HRRR or SREF plume any day, any year. When we get them we usually do overachieve. Hoping for some good 24 hour trends beginning with tonights runs. With these arctic temps coming, it has to over perform for us(wishcasting). Hoping 21Z SREF continues the upward trend. A bit of the other thread but still nearly 5" tomorrow

Has switched to snow here, about an hour or two earlier than expected. Likely too warm yet for it to accumulate though.

Very light rain still falling here at KSPI but every few seconds a single large white drop will fall as snow tries to mix in.

I can't remember the last arctic punch here that did not have a somewhat sufficient snow pack. Cold or bust....

No worries man, up until your 3rd-5th thread and seeing you mention it in a post on this thread I haven't seen your other predictions and how they have panned out. You said "your model" so I figured you had somehow delved a way to incorporate an algorythm/program to actually forecast. We never know who we are really interacting with on the internet, you could have the wealth of Bezos for all I know and have your own weather predictor I like your terminology in this post a lot better in using "method" rather than model, in weather forecasting the difference in definition is vastly different. Good luck with it, and if it works it works. If not, try and try again.

That was my initial impression as well, mentioned them in one of the other threads as well. I think there is a little credence to all of them in their own rite, but to call a theory a model is a bit much. I'll end it at that as I've come to acknowledge they're(other theories) not well received here for scientific purposes. No issue with that either, I just love to be prepared for what lies ahead regardless the means, and morseo use the greater knowledge of everyone involved to keep friends and family safe days in advance. For all I know he was Musk or Bezos and had supercomputers with an alias to keep it on the downlow

Can you post some more about your model? What is it and how do you ingest data and such? Couldn't imagine the specs of a computer to accomplish such a feat at home. I recall Skilling used to state he had an inhouse RPM model, similar? I've been a lurker during my first umpteen years here and have not followed along with every system thread since then, until this year(Winter season). May have missed it, but I'm curious whether to add more weight to your postings or if it is a bit of BS. Not calling you out on it, just want a bit more info if you could.

What is "your model"? Keep seeing you reference it but only image you have posted is a paint rendered image. Are you referring to something like LRC/BSR/Heady Pattern?

36 degrees and closing in on .5" of rain . Here's to the Big Dog........

Took me a minute, but think I just got rid of the heart attack inducing sound for a notification. That thing has scared the crap out of me more times than the DGEX let me down....

Silently(until now) been rooting for the Euro, it has been consistent at giving me measurable snowfall, but feel it's an outlier in that regard.

One of these day... err years, it's gonna happen here again

Thinking about breaking out the smoker tomorrow to empty the freezers. Gonna pack as much backyard snow as I can in them and go rent a wood chipper for Sunday evening to put it back down. I'm struggling for ideas here

I'll take your winter screw hole in exchange for your severe weather bullseye

Can we compromise and keep QPF as is and have the cold air more prominent further South? It would benefit you just the same by increasing ratio rather than moisture content. That said, only good thing about this system is it puts me one closer to the next big one here. Who knows how long that will take though

Official tally 3.2". Season total of 9.3" all in January. See what February can muster up

Ended up a bit of an overachiever here, very comfortable saying 2 1/2" but feel it may be closer to 3". Hard to tell with the drifting that took place. Definitely better than 10:1 ratio, would guess 13-15:1, was an easy shovel when I got home. Will be our highest event total for sure on the season. I'd trade it for the weekend heavy band in a heartbeat though. Drive home looked like IDOT may have been caught a bit off guard locally. Onto the next one.

Snow/flurries started here about 10 minutes ago. If we can manage 1.4" it would be the biggest single day snow of the season. Pretty sad saying that on January 27th

March is a bit early please I'll take snow up until the first week of April, hail is the only wished upon frozen precip after that.

Just hope in the end to say, " Man, the Euro nailed this at 5 1/2 days out" I know better though....

I'd rather live where you are than here, if I had to remain in IL. Galesburg is where I would want to live for the weather bonus Capitol of the state. They get it all and rarely misses them for a season. Severe or winter weather, Galesburg is always close to an epicenter it seems.

03 please, but I'll take my cold rain and like it......