WeatherMonger
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Everything posted by WeatherMonger
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Lock it in is all I got
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I wish I could answer that with an educated response, but I cannot and will not try to. Probably should not have earlier, but I'm drinking myself to sleep tonight and felt pretty smart Hopefully it produces for you regardless, enjoy it and treat it like the last is all I can suggest.
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By Cincy's forecast you are expecting 7.5" on .78" QPF which is a shade under 10:1 ratios. Probably should not assume 20:1 ratios there, it's all about the thermal profiles throughout the atmosphere amongst other things I am not qualified to speak for.
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Always, when in relation to QPF amount. typical snowfall at 10:1 gives 10 inches of snow to 1 inch of precipitation. Get that to 20:1 ratios and you're looking at 20 inches of snow from the same precipitation. Last snow here we had 50:1 ratios, which would equate to 50 inches of snow per the same QPF. Way different thermal profiles here though, but should be in the 12:1 to 20:1 for most with exceptions for a few.
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Yeah, not by much though. Would be nice to get that QPF with a good clipper. Hope it pans out or even over achieves, tomorrows high is only 6 degrees coming off an overnight low forecast at -1. Not sure what to think with the surface low so far from the cold sector, I'd take improved ratios over more QPF any day, easier to shovel and disappears quicker when it does warm back up.
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6.8" snow on .30" QPF in the hourly grids
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RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 0501 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2021 ...RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SPRINGFIELD IL... A RECORD COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 4 DEGREES WAS SET AT SPRINGFIELD IL TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 15 SET IN 1943.
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Still gives me 7" which is pretty much general consensus amongst the models. So 5 1/2" it is
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Light flurries have commenced here, decent little band heading my way from the SW Meh, looked better on precip depiction than it does on reflectivity.
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Going to have to drink myself to sleep tonight, otherwise I'll be up watching radar and out the window all night and dragging ass at work tomorrow . Shoveling snow tomorrow evening in this cold won't be fun, let alone on no sleep
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I'll take the 18Z GFS V16 for $200
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ILX AFD
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ILX latest graphic
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6-10"
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Be still my heart....
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Can you make my call as well? Only thing out of ILX on Facebook is about the cold. Someone asked them about higher totals, sais LSX had mentioned it but they did not respond. Went to LSX page and seen this. Cautiously optimistic, yet knowing howbthings usually pan out keeps me a bit pessimistic.
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Crazy track for where the warnings and advisories are
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Yeah, I don't get it. For KSPI: 12Z's HRRR- 9.3" UK(10:1)- 4.4" GFS- 5.5" GFS v16- 11.0 NAM- 9.9" Euro- 7.4" Canadian- 9.0" 9Z SREF plume Mean- 6.31"
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HWO calling for 2-5" now so ILX not biting on the higher totals for some reason
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Hourly grid has me at 3" off of .16" QPF
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ILX late morning discussion mentions nothing on modeling trends or the system, only focused on windchills
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WWA updated at 10:30am and sticking with 2-4"
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Lock it in, not often I benefit from the NW trend, usually on the sharp SE cutoff with these things, and when not they get too suppressed.
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Coldest airmass of the season settling in, had 50:1 ratios with the overnight/morning system. Not anticipating that type for this system by any means, but hopefully it can overperform for a lot of us snow starved, and by snow starved I'm speaking to depth of snow rather than season total. I'm just glad snow is in the forecast during the arctic surge, rooting for it to wring the atmosphere of every drop available
