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Everything posted by WeatherMonger

  1. I'm not sure I like this Baker's attitude..... Heading into the start of next week, the upper flow is forecast to become more zonal. This would open the doorway for another weather system to develop and slide through the mid-latitudes Monday night into Tuesday morning. This is also the first look at possible frost development across a decent amount of land in the central Illinois area, as lows Tuesday and Wednesday mornings drop into the mid 30s Tuesday and low to mid 30s Wednesday. With temperatures falling towards the freezing mark, and precipitation chances Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, we`ll have to keep an eye out for possible pesky white dendrites falling from the sky...but for now we will think positive LONG TERM...Baker
  2. Mesoscale Discussion 1831 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0906 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Areas affected...eastern MO...western and central IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111406Z - 111630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Trends will be monitored this morning for surface-based thunderstorm development. The initial area of concern will be over central MO and areas northeastward towards the MS River. A tornado watch will likely be needed by midday for portions of eastern MO into western IL. It is uncertain whether surface-based storms and a subsequent tornado risk will develop as far north as extreme eastern IA. DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a compact/intense mid-level shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley. Weak convection has been maintained this morning within the warm conveyer belt from southeast MO through the Saint Louis area and into western IL. A surface trough/windshift is analyzed this morning arcing from near the low through central and south-central MO. A small area of cloud breaks is noted in visible-satellite imagery over central MO where forcing is maximized and over the location of greatest concern this morning. Model forecast soundings show gradual destabilization this morning into the midday hours as temperatures slowly rise into the lower 70s with a moist boundary layer. Very strong low-level flow noted at the Saint Louis 88D VAD is resulting in a large low-level hodograph (400+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). Once sufficiently strong updrafts can develop/persist, a severe risk will likely ensue with an isolated risk for tornadoes and damaging winds being the primary concerns. ..Smith/Hart.. 10/11/2021
  3. Curious to see if they find a brief spin up occured
  4. Didn't have much wind on my side of the plant, but had a power flash and the east end of the plant is out. Coworker got a call from his wife, had a pine tree fall on his trailer, caved in the kitchen so apparently had some wind with it, he's on same side of town as me but a bit further North. Fairgrounds probably took some wind, never fails during the fair.
  5. Went outside and about 10 coworkers standing around staring up at the sky, "right there, that's a tornado about to form" looked at radar and it's the outflow/gust front moving through, did have some cool cloud movement with it. 100% guaranteed to rain/storm here as it is the opening night of the State Fair.
  6. I have to go mow in this crap. 3" of rain yesterday and the possibility of even more the next few days I can't wait until Friday like I had hoped. 89/78 for a 103 index, ugh
  7. not understanding this portion of 1630Z update, they trimmed it yet says they expanded it.... Given the aforementioned possibilities of more than one storm cluster and the area of large to extreme CAPE, have expanded the higher damaging wind probabilities farther south into MO/IL 1630Z Previous 1300Z
  8. Anyone had contact with Chicago Storm since his last post? Hopefully it wasn't a bad situation holy chit, remember he had a brush with the last tornado up there a while back.
  9. Enhanced over N IL, WI and Iowa tomorrow for wind with a hatched area into the slight down to central IL.
  10. ILX with a rare descriptive mid-morning update. .UPDATE... Issued at 1041 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021 A pair of observations from the 12z HREF: (1) impactful convection is trending later into the evening, and (2) picking a favorite hi-res model is not going to help nail down the forecast; there is simply too much spread and uncertainty among them. To gain a better understanding of the convective potential, it is best to take a step back into the synoptic space. Current GOES WV imagery depicts a shortwave trough digging southeastward across central Iowa, coinciding with a 50+ kt speed max at 500-mb. At the surface, a warm front is draped from roughly Sioux City to Nashville. This front and upper-level forcing will provide the focus for convective initiation this afternoon across portions of southern Iowa and northern Missouri as the capping inversion erodes. Storm relative hodographs suggest any discrete convection that develops late this afternoon and early evening west of the Mississippi River Valley will become linear as it approaches central Illinois and interacts with the LLJ. The current expectation is for an MCS to initially propagate along the warm front/MUCAPE gradient, which runs roughly parallel to a Galesburg to Effingham line. But, as the cold pool becomes more mature late this evening, the MCS should show a tendency to follow the 0-3 km shear vectors into portions of central and southern Illinois. Depending on the strength of the cold pool (will need to assess theta-e differentials from 00z ILX sounding), there could be some bowing segments along the leading edge of the MCS. This will lead to a damaging straight-line wind threat late this evening with pockets of 70+ MPH gusts possible. A few brief tornadoes will also be possible within these bowing segments wherever the 3-ingredients method (QLCS mesovortex system) comes into alignment. As mentioned previously, timing all of this out is perhaps our biggest challenge. But for now, we`ll peg the peak severe weather threat between 9pm - 3am. Perhaps the bigger and understated threat this evening is hydro. While the HREF doesn`t offer much continuity with convective mode and timing, we do believe it offers a helpful solution on QPF; namely the LPMM, which suggests a widespread 0.5"-1.0" with localized streaks of 3.0"-5.0" wherever the heaviest convection occurs.
  11. Nice thunderstorm moving through now.
  12. From ILX, currently under FFWatch until tomorrow morning, and SPC issued a marginal. Most streams out of their banks here this morning.
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