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WeatherMonger

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Everything posted by WeatherMonger

  1. Back at home, work let people leave if they wanted to. Have to be around 6" or so, drifting so bad be hard to get a good measurement. Shoveled a path from back door to yard and a small area in the grass for my dog. Roads were pretty bad, but no cars im ditches which for the first real snow of the year is impressive. Only vehicle I seen with problems was a road plow, was plowing an entrance to the state fairgrounds and must have git his front tire in a dip or hole, couldn't go forward or backward so must not have had much salt in the bed.
  2. ILX keeps mentioning the possibility of a Blizzard Warning tomorrow. I know there's a lull expected later this afternoon/evening but have to wonder if they'll pull the trigger early? Definitely not 10:1 or lower ratios right now and gusty winds will keep snow blowing even during the lull in snow falling.
  3. Starting to question how long my work can stay open today. They're not going to be able to keep caught up with the snow. Going to get all the fork lifts stuck.
  4. Not sure how much we have here, I'd guesstimate 2.5" or so, maybe 3? Surprising snow was quite powdery and wimd whipped, solid glaze of ice under it.
  5. Just let the dog out to take a GFS and its raining harder than I thought it was. Work comes early so I'll see where we are in the morning.
  6. I've lost my excitement from earlier, this is going to end up another, and typical, I-74 and north special.
  7. Curious as to why some have said not to use Kuchera maps for totals? I'm not looking for a reason to inflate totals IMBY by any means, but when the snow starts here it will be 5, 6 or 7:1, for several hours and may even jump back down to those until temps really drop. Isn't there inflation in that using 10:1? I always thought Kuchera used lesser and better ratios for a more realistic number. I watched the beginnings of the 0Z HRRR rum comparing between the two and 10:1 was better than using Kuchera. I understand both maps are grain of salt and manual reviews needed(I'm not that smart ), but when I went through a GFS run using Bufkit output there were weird fluctuations in ratios throughout it as well. Been using the 10:1 maps when looking at totals, but they seem somewhat inflated at the beginning and somewhat low towards the end. Is that average start and finish enough to use that over Kuchera? Sorry for the long post during a model run
  8. Here's the image, guess you have to use dynamic images
  9. ILX in one of their graphics from 2 hours ago had a wide band of 12-18" from north of St. Louis to Havana NE to Kankee and Paris line. Peoria was 8-12" Can't submit the image though
  10. What determines what size image you can post? Mine keeps changing, was 54.xx earlier and now only 10.79kb. Kind of annoying, not trying to spam with images.
  11. I don't know if it is related or not, but airport here in springfield had a failure and no longer reporting from like 10 or 11 pm until 6am. Lincoln has an issue as well https://www.weather.gov/ilx/SPI_outage
  12. Here was ILX's projected changeover times from earlier. Won't let me post many images from other phone.
  13. Not sure where to check, are there any reports of snow hitting the ground on the NW side of precip shield? Radarscope shows it both ILX and DVN radars. Thicknesses support it.
  14. I'm just worried because I have been in the bullseye totals for way longer than one should be. Every run of every model. It's one of those, if it seems too good to be true, it probably is things. Stopping to get some whiskey on the way home, have to work tomorrow and need to sleep
  15. GFS still loves me, the rest of you got me like
  16. The force is strong with all you north of me people. Doing my best to hold it in place
  17. ILX late morning update UPDATE... Issued at 1100 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 No significant adjustments needed with the morning update in terms of precipitation amounts and timing for the winter storm event. We did coordinate an update to the headline to transition Edgar and Clark counties from a watch to a winter storm warning. Adjacent Indiana counties to the east also upgraded to a warning with this mornings forecast update. As for current weather conditions, we are seeing a corridor of rain showers developing from SW to NE across central IL. The precip is developing in a shallow saturated lower level cloud layer. Therefore rainfall amounts will remain on the light side today. Deeper moisture and UVVs will arrive later this afternoon and this evening, as the cold front progresses from NW to SE across the area. By 6 pm, the cold front should have progressed to a line from Champaign to Taylorville, just east of I-55. Low level cold air behind the front will change the rain to snow soonest across our NW counties, west of the Illinois River. That transition zone will shift to the SE with time tonight, reaching just north of I-70 by 6 am Wednesday. A freezing rain/sleet transition zone will occur during the change-over from rain to snow. Where that zone stalls out later tonight and Wednesday will be where the higher potential of icing and sleet will occur, roughly between I-70 and I-72. Snowfall amounts tonight could reach up to 2-4" for our northern counties, with travel impacts likely for the Wed morning commute as far south as a line from Paris to Mattoon to Taylorville. Further updates to this winter storm forecast will come toward mid-afternoon.
  18. ILX put out a 1 amd 2 day snowfall record graphic. I'm going with 14-17" so both are likely safe for Springfield.
  19. Forecast has 11-23" here, see wherr things stand in 24 hours.
  20. Ok, I lied. Let's just lock it in now. Kuchera or 10:1 is fine.
  21. I'm starting to hate the 0Z NAM runs, this one not as bad as last nights....
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