ILX likes the NW track.
Surface cyclogenesis will
develop in SE Colorado Friday, with the low tracking to western
Missouri by 6 am on New Years Day/Saturday. A warm front ahead of
the low will advance into a cold Canadian high pressure in place
across the northern Midwest. The 12z model suite has kept the
general trend of ECMWF with the northerly track of the low and the
GFS the southerly track. GFS ensemble output is targeting central
IL (roughly the I-72 corridor) for some of the heavier snows from
that system. The ECMWF continues to target northern IL for heavier
snows, roughly north of Galesburg to south Chicago. The blended
extended guidance in our system is leaning toward the northerly
track, and keeping snow amounts down and mainly northwest of
Peoria. While freezing rain signals are present in the transition
zone soundings, it does not appear to be a good setup for an ice
storm in any of our counties, with a lack of persistent sub-
freezing dewpoint air feeding in from the northeast.
Still, there is potential of high impact to travel New Years Day,
so anyone with travel plans toward northern Illinois will need to
keep a close eye on updates to this winter storm system.
After the surface low passes on Saturday, much colder air will
arrive on gusty NW winds. Wind chills will likely drop into the
zero to -15F range by Sunday morning, which will be a rude
awakening after a warm December