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LVblizzard

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Everything posted by LVblizzard

  1. LVblizzard
    DT has some kind of weird love affair with that model. Every forecast he puts out essentially mirrors what it shows.
  2. LVblizzard
    The GFS/GEFS were consistently too far south and east with the storm 3 weeks ago.
  3. LVblizzard
    The sun angle is doing work this week. There is a bare spot in my yard, first actual grass I’ve seen in about a month. Snowpack is now dwindling by about an inch or two per day.
  4. LVblizzard
    If you live and die by individual model runs sure.
  5. LVblizzard
    The answer is no. It misses again.
  6. LVblizzard
    I remember for the storm 3 weeks ago, when all the other models were trending north, the GFS had a couple of runs where it was a disjointed mess and stayed mostly south. This was just 4 days out. Obviously that didn’t verify.
  7. LVblizzard
    Snow map is absolutely bonkers. This would exceed 1996 and rival 2016 in the Lehigh Valley.
  8. LVblizzard
    Nothing is left from last night. Classic late winter slop event where the sun angle melts everything pretty much immediately.
  9. LVblizzard
    18z Euro at least has the storm off the coast which it didn’t have at 12z. Progress.
  10. LVblizzard
    The KDIX outage is a bit concerning. Went offline 11 days ago and the latest message says they were unable to troubleshoot. Thank god we have TPHL as a backup even if it’s lower resolution.
  11. LVblizzard
    Why are we even talking about starting a thread for a storm chance a week away? There is nowhere near enough agreement with the models to warrant one. This could easily turn into an apps runner by tomorrow or Wednesday.
  12. LVblizzard
    Being in the bullseye 7 days out rarely works out with this type of setup. This is more likely than not to turn into a mix or rain event IMO.
  13. LVblizzard
    About an inch here? I think? Can't really tell because pavement measurements aren't super reliable with this type of storm, and every other surface is still covered in snow. Still snowing lightly, I don't think we'll get to 2 inches.
  14. LVblizzard
    Sigh…I will take my 1-2” tonight and like it. It just hurts a little knowing how close this was to something more significant.
  15. LVblizzard
    I’m not sure I can remember a storm threat quite like this. It’s such an unusual setup, far from what we typically see. Just crazy how such a small change at H5 in the first 12-24 hours leads to huge differences only a day later.
  16. LVblizzard
    GFS just went full weenie. Over half a foot for most of us. What on earth is going on?
  17. LVblizzard
    When the GFS is on its own, it’s wrong more often than not.
  18. LVblizzard
    Just when it looked like all hope was lost, the Euro comes in with a significant storm for Sunday night. Widespread 12-16” of snow north and west of Philly.
  19. LVblizzard
    If this is it for prolonged cold and lots of snow chances, I’m glad we had a front loaded winter for once. I’m fine with an early spring with the kind of winter we had in December and January.
  20. LVblizzard
    The Sun-Mon storm looks more like a thread the needle type setup to me. We need enough cold air that precip remains all or mostly snow, but too strong of a cold air press suppresses the storm to the south. It's certainly possible but I don't think the chances are super high. Better chance of something north of I-78 IMO.
  21. LVblizzard
    Only weak echoes here on the radar (using TPHL since KDIX is down) yet we’ve had a steady light snow for the past hour. Dusting on the ground.
  22. LVblizzard
    Yep same here. Would be fitting to get a huge storm on the one weekend I absolutely do not want one.
  23. LVblizzard
    NAM got better for tomorrow too. Drops 1-3” rather than the C-1” it’s been showing.
  24. LVblizzard
    This snowpack isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, even in sunnier areas. We got about a foot in Allentown last week and we still have the vast majority of it. Would really like some minor to moderate events in the next week or two to make sure we keep the snow on the ground for the rest of meteorological winter.
  25. LVblizzard
    Next Wed-Thurs has some potential. Probably nothing big but I could see a widespread 2-4” or 3-6” event.
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