LVblizzard
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Everything posted by LVblizzard
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Canadian mixes up to route 202 while the LV/Poconos get absolutely crushed. 24-30” jackpot from York through the coal region into the Poconos. Now we just need the GFS to join the party…
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Southern stream does end up being slower which is what we want. The problem is there’s way too much confluence pressing down suppressing our storm to the south.
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Actually worse than 12z.
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Something to ponder…when has the GFS ever been completely on its own and it ended up verifying? I can’t think of any times when that happened.
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I’d want the southern stream to slow down just a little on the ICON for the ideal solution. But otherwise it looks pretty good.
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Euro ensembles are freaking nuts. Massive area of 6+” along the east coast. Completely wild to see on an ensemble mean 6 days out.
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And the Euro comes in with an absolute nuke!!! 1-2 feet for the entire region!
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UKMET is a big hit. ICON grazes us but is still a decent event. Now we just wait on the Euro.
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Canadian says the GFS is full of sh*t. Comes in with a bomb with widespread 12-18”.
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Woke up with a dusting on the ground this morning. We must have had a snow squall pass through overnight.
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Euro ensemble mean is 6-9” at 10:1. With ratios that’s more like 8-12”. Complete insanity for a mean 7 days out. Of course things can still go wrong. Last week there was a big signal for this Tuesday (although not like this). It ended up being a pretty weak event for most of us. So we have to stay cautious even though the snow maps look pretty.
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The fact that this changed so much from 12z to 0z means that this is far from wrapped up. It all depends on how that piece of the PV behaves. If it stays too strong or dives too far SE this goes back to being cold and dry.
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Euro goes boom. 12-20” for the entire PHL metro.
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Canadian does it too. A foot plus south of the turnpike. 6-12” for the LV/Poconos.
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We only want it as far south as possible if it drops west of the Great Lakes. If it’s over the lakes or the northeast it suppresses our storm to the south.
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Holy crap the GFS just went full weenie. 2 1/2 feet for NYC, 1 1/2 feet for Philly, and 8-12” in the NW burbs.
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It just got very windy outside. There’s the cold front.
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12z Euro ensembles strongly disagree with the OP. Ensemble mean of 4-6” for next week.
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0z Canadian brings back the storm next week while the GFS misses to the south. Seems like a miss is more likely but there’s still a long way to go.
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NAM with 2-4” too. Not sure how to feel about this one. WAA can often overperform but at the same time we tend to get a pesky warm nose keeping down totals. Feels like it always goes one way or the other.
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Sleet in Allentown. We didn’t even start with snow at all.
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Even our C-1” looks like it’s going to bust tonight. It just does not want to snow around here lately.
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Light to borderline moderate snow here. Looks like we have an hour or two left. At about 0.5” now, can we hit an inch?
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0z GFS/Canadian miss to the south for 2/20 but not by much. Potential is still there. We just need the flow to amplify without a super strong high pushing everything to the south.
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Just got home from doing some DoorDash. Side roads are covered, main roads are still just wet as steady light snow continues to fall.
