LVblizzard
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February 15-16 Slop Fest/Rain/Wind OBS
LVblizzard replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
High wind warning for trash night. Gotta love it! -
0z NAM looked very good at 84 FWIW.
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March 2017…jackpot went from just NW of I-95 to well inland as the low hugged the coast which introduced mixing issues for lots of people initially projected to remain all snow.
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Not true. It’s actually a little better than 12z. But that’s not saying much. Just 1-3” for most of us.
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This threat feels like it’s a hair away from becoming a MECS again. It also feels like if one more thing goes wrong this is a whiff north of Philly.
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This feels like deja vu with this past Tuesday’s storm. Models show a big snowstorm and then slowly back off until all that’s left is a light, maybe moderate event.
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Low res UKMET maps are out. It appears to have held with a solution similar to 12z.
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Progressive GFS you mean? The Euro doesn’t have a progressive bias.
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Canadian mixes up to route 202 while the LV/Poconos get absolutely crushed. 24-30” jackpot from York through the coal region into the Poconos. Now we just need the GFS to join the party…
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Southern stream does end up being slower which is what we want. The problem is there’s way too much confluence pressing down suppressing our storm to the south.
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Actually worse than 12z.
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Something to ponder…when has the GFS ever been completely on its own and it ended up verifying? I can’t think of any times when that happened.
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I’d want the southern stream to slow down just a little on the ICON for the ideal solution. But otherwise it looks pretty good.
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Euro ensembles are freaking nuts. Massive area of 6+” along the east coast. Completely wild to see on an ensemble mean 6 days out.
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And the Euro comes in with an absolute nuke!!! 1-2 feet for the entire region!
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UKMET is a big hit. ICON grazes us but is still a decent event. Now we just wait on the Euro.
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Canadian says the GFS is full of sh*t. Comes in with a bomb with widespread 12-18”.
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Woke up with a dusting on the ground this morning. We must have had a snow squall pass through overnight.
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Euro ensemble mean is 6-9” at 10:1. With ratios that’s more like 8-12”. Complete insanity for a mean 7 days out. Of course things can still go wrong. Last week there was a big signal for this Tuesday (although not like this). It ended up being a pretty weak event for most of us. So we have to stay cautious even though the snow maps look pretty.
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The fact that this changed so much from 12z to 0z means that this is far from wrapped up. It all depends on how that piece of the PV behaves. If it stays too strong or dives too far SE this goes back to being cold and dry.
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Euro goes boom. 12-20” for the entire PHL metro.
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Canadian does it too. A foot plus south of the turnpike. 6-12” for the LV/Poconos.
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We only want it as far south as possible if it drops west of the Great Lakes. If it’s over the lakes or the northeast it suppresses our storm to the south.
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Holy crap the GFS just went full weenie. 2 1/2 feet for NYC, 1 1/2 feet for Philly, and 8-12” in the NW burbs.
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It just got very windy outside. There’s the cold front.
