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LVblizzard

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  1. LVblizzard
    12z HRRR had the same thing.
  2. LVblizzard
    I mentioned February 2014 earlier in this thread. The UKMET essentially repeats that. Huge front end thump, a period of a light wintry mix, then the CCB swinging through at the end. Would be a widespread foot plus for the area.
  3. LVblizzard
    UKMET is kind of strange in that it really blasts that primary into WV/PA but it doesn’t torch the mid levels as fast as the Canadian which does the same thing at the surface.
  4. LVblizzard
    It’s not a bad model. But when it’s wrong it’s usually too amped, not the other way around.
  5. LVblizzard
    That’s the big saving grace with this storm. The front end thump is a THUMP. Even the torchiest models have warning level snow before the changeover happens.
  6. LVblizzard
    ICON is better. Primary is more south with confluence pressing down a little harder. Still won’t produce this subforum’s desired result but at least it’s not another step in the wrong direction.
  7. LVblizzard
    Would be an ultra long duration event with how expansive the overrunning stuff is. I do think that eventually we’d mix if extrapolated but not before a really crazy thump of snow.
  8. LVblizzard
    Something crazy I noticed is that the southern stream vortmax is near Midland/Odessa, TX at hour 84. At 78 hours at 18z, it was near Wichita, KS. Just a subtle 500 mile difference.
  9. LVblizzard
    Not sure that it wouldn’t take the primary up there in the end. The low is farther south than the globals but it’s also much slower. Those could cancel each other out in the end.
  10. LVblizzard
    I would think that’s not a good thing. If both of those pieces are slower, it gives more time for the confluence to move out and room for this thing to come pretty far north.
  11. LVblizzard
    We really want the confluence to be stronger and the high to stick around for longer. That will give us the long duration blizzard we all want.
  12. LVblizzard
    The northern stream feature on that Euro run was likely much different from what most guidance is showing now. It has really trended west in the last 2 days.
  13. LVblizzard
    And that’s why it’s known as the GooFuS!
  14. LVblizzard
    February 2014 was like this. Still gave ABE 16”.
  15. LVblizzard
    Canadian is really the only 12z model that gets a prolonged period of sleet north of I-95. Euro and UKMET push it a little past Philly but it’s when the bulk of the precip is already done.
  16. LVblizzard
    IIRC the GFS never fully came on board either. A bit strange given how god-awful that model usually is.
  17. LVblizzard
    I’m in Vermont for some skiing and I noticed it was 12:30 so I got comfy in the lodge and got ready to watch the Euro come out. Instead I find out it’s delayed and who the hell knows when it’ll start to come out. This run better be good to make up for that.
  18. LVblizzard
    The 0z models tonight are what I’m really interested in. I believe that will be the first run with full sampling.
  19. LVblizzard
    Yeah this is exactly how a low should act when it encounters a strong arctic high…not plow into it like the UKMET does.
  20. LVblizzard
    Also the fact that the WAA thump is quite intense and the majority of the precip is done by the time the warm nose arrives.
  21. LVblizzard
    It doesn’t want to fully transfer the primary low at all. It just keeps going with it until it’s in upstate NY and pushes the high out of the way like it’s nothing. Not really buying that.
  22. LVblizzard
    I’ve noticed that the Canadian rarely agrees with the consensus. It’s usually way north or way south. This seems like one of those times it’s too amped. Haven’t seen any solutions remotely resembling it.
  23. LVblizzard
    The magic of a 1037 high in Quebec.
  24. LVblizzard
    I would be absolutely shocked if the mix line makes it past Philly. Even mixing to Philly seems unlikely with the sheer amount of cold air we’re working with.
  25. LVblizzard
    This is a true arctic airmass. I’m in Killington, VT currently. Wind chill got down to -20 on the mountain today. Not staying till the weekend but Saturday could get wind chills near -30. Just insane how cold it’s been, especially when you remember we’re technically still in a La Niña.
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