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LVblizzard

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Everything posted by LVblizzard

  1. LVblizzard
    As wacky as the NAM can be sometimes, it really does a good job with these mid level warm noses more often than not.
  2. LVblizzard
    Freezing drizzle for a bit in Allentown, but it has changed back to sleet under the heavier echoes.
  3. LVblizzard
    All sleet in Allentown. That was quick.
  4. LVblizzard
    Starting as graupel in Allentown.
  5. LVblizzard
    I have a hard time trusting this given how far north the sleet reports are in upstate NY into Canada.
  6. LVblizzard
    I’m going with 1-3” for Allentown but it’s basically a crapshoot with how volatile that warm nose is. This is the type of storm where the airport sees nothing but sleet which barely accumulates an inch, while 20 miles away in Bangor they get 4-5”.
  7. LVblizzard
    Latest NAM has nearly 2” of pure sleet at ABE airport. I’d almost rather have rain…almost. Still better than the ice storm they’ll be getting south and west of Harrisburg.
  8. LVblizzard
    This forecast is a real PITA. Toughest one in awhile and probably one of the top 5 most difficult since I started forecasting on my page 14 years ago.
  9. LVblizzard
    And it did. Virtually no snow even for the Poconos. Amazing that we’re less than 24 hours out and there’s this much disagreement. This is the definition of a nowcast event.
  10. LVblizzard
    0z HRRR has 6” in Allentown and 4” down to Philly. Not buying it though…I’ve seen this before where the HRRR severely underestimates mid-level warm air. The NAM is about to come out and I’m pretty confident it’ll show something entirely different.
  11. LVblizzard
    If you buy how dry the NAMs are…I personally don’t. Sleet ratios are typically around 3:1 and I think we get at least an inch of pure sleet, along with up to an inch of snow.
  12. LVblizzard
    Been awhile since we had a big sleet bomb…looks like that will be happening tomorrow night. Still doesn’t compare to V-Day 2007, the mother of all sleet storms.
  13. LVblizzard
    It sucks running a page with 13k followers during a storm like this. You barely have a clue but the people demand numbers and you just have to do your best.
  14. LVblizzard
    None of the other 0z mesos look remotely like that NAM run. I'm tossing the NAM at this point as it's such a big outlier.
  15. LVblizzard
    Forecasting this is like blindly throwing darts at the models and hoping one will be right. It's such a weird setup and the models apparently don't know how to handle it. You can't really look at past storms as analogs with this either because it's so rare to get storms like this.
  16. LVblizzard
    Just under an inch in Allentown. Nice ground whitener. Now on to Friday!
  17. LVblizzard
    I don’t really trust globals on the snow/mix line. We’ll have to wait another day or two for the hi-res models to come into range. What does look certain is that this will be an all or mostly frozen event for most of us. WWA just issued for Lehigh/Northampton counties for this morning. NWS expects 1-2” around here.
  18. LVblizzard
    It’s virga. 0z hi-res models are slightly more aggressive for tomorrow. HRRR has 1-3” around I-78. Hoping to wake up to steady snow in the morning.
  19. LVblizzard
    GFS is really the only model showing a lot of snow for this area…most other guidance has a big mid-level warm nose and lots of IP/ZR. Trend has been our friend over the last day though, so we’ll see if that continues.
  20. LVblizzard
    0z models are looking VERY interesting for Friday-Saturday. If that blocking trends just a little stronger some of us could be in for a pretty significant snow or ice storm.
  21. LVblizzard
    Some small hail with that line in Allentown. Very rare for this time of year.
  22. LVblizzard
    Kevin Patullo will need a shield surrounding him if the Eagles go 3 and out on their first drive.
  23. LVblizzard
    Just had a nice little flurry/snow shower while shoveling and clearing off my car. I love when that happens. It’s like the ultimate cherry on top.
  24. LVblizzard
    Ended up with about 6” just west of Allentown. That was a fun storm. Love the overperformers.
  25. LVblizzard
    Just woke up to about 5” on the ground in Allentown. Looks like we have one more band on its way to potentially push us closer to 6”. Great storm, love seeing something like this in mid December.
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