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LVblizzard

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Everything posted by LVblizzard

  1. LVblizzard
    12z NAM comes in line with the model consensus. Heavy snow stays south of Philly and I-80 on north gets nada.
  2. LVblizzard
    With that new lobe of confluence showing up and pressing down into Quebec and Maine, we need this storm to buck the trend of slowing down and speed up again. If it’s too slow then that lobe comes crashing in and squashes the whole thing towards DC.
  3. LVblizzard
    Happened somewhat in Jan. 2016 too. 4-5 days out a lot of the models started to shift south and some even missed the Philly area. Then 2-3 days out the slow north trend began again and it ended up being a historic storm for all of us.
  4. LVblizzard
    Euro starts off fine but ends up positively tilting the trough as it approaches the Mid-Atlantic, as opposed to the GFS which amps it up and keeps it closed off. Pretty ugly run.
  5. LVblizzard
    I’ve seen the UKMET do this before. In February 2021 it showed snow completely missing eastern PA 4 days out. I ended up getting 2 1/2 feet. Edit: found it lol
  6. LVblizzard
    Started a thread for this one. If this storm trends back south towards suppression you guys can blame me.
  7. LVblizzard
    It now appears pretty certain that it will snow on Monday. So I don’t think a thread can curse us. The question is, how much? Some models, like the Canadian, keep the heavy snow to our south in Baltimore and DC. While the GFS has a MECS for all of us. It’ll be an interesting weekend of tracking, hopefully we can all get in on the fun with this one.
  8. LVblizzard
    The GFS turns this into a fairly long duration storm as snow continues with the passage of the vort, as opposed to previous runs where most of it was the front end WAA thump. As a result we get a major snowstorm.
  9. LVblizzard
    Ummm…holy GFS. Wow. This is a crazy good run for all of us.
  10. LVblizzard
    21z SREF mean is waaaaayyyyy north. Looks like the ICON.
  11. LVblizzard
    18z GFS with another jump north. 6-10” event up to the Lehigh Valley.
  12. LVblizzard
    I wouldn’t say *way* north but it is a pretty decent sized jump.
  13. LVblizzard
    6-12” from Wilmington all the way up to Scranton. Beautiful run! Now if only the other models could follow suit.
  14. LVblizzard
    3km NAM isn’t as ambitious as the HRRR but it still paints a wide swath of ground whitening snow throughout SE PA.
  15. LVblizzard
    Jackpot of half a foot in Chesco. This would be quite the surprise event.
  16. LVblizzard
    GFS and Canadian look great. This is a warning level event for all of us with another 40-50 mile tick north. Which I think is fairly likely given how these systems usually trend.
  17. LVblizzard
    FWIW the 12z NAM at 84 seems in line with most of the other models. Maybe a little more amped.
  18. LVblizzard
    12z HRRR gives us 1-3” tomorrow. Is it on to something? I’m inclined to say no, but we’ve seen these surprise setups produce before.
  19. LVblizzard
    Euro ticked south a little. Still 3-6” for most of us.
  20. LVblizzard
    These SWFE type storms trend north more often than not. I think plowable snow gets up to I-78 or I-80 in the end.
  21. LVblizzard
    This is interesting. 6z NAM has a thin stripe of 1-3” in the Philly area on Friday.
  22. LVblizzard
    Seeing good trends in the 0z models for the two storm threats next week. Hopefully we can get at least one of them.
  23. LVblizzard
    Not getting any of the crazy wind or hail to the south but there is some lightning and thunder here. Crazy for New Year’s Eve!
  24. LVblizzard
    Both threats are very much alive and well despite the surface output not looking great on a lot of the models. A lot of things would have to go wrong for us to not see anything.
  25. LVblizzard
    12z models look like hot garbage at the surface but I’ll gamble with this H5 look any day.
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