LVblizzard

Euro ensembles have a pretty nice signal around the 20th FWIW.

Next week could literally be the worst case scenario. First wave misses south, second wave rains on us. Just brutal given how much potential this period had.

NAM is a complete whiff for Tues-Wed. Yes it’s the NAM at range but this event is quickly turning to crap.

12z NAM gives ABE less than an inch of snow and sleets like crazy on us. HRRR is mostly snow with 6”. This storm starts today. Oh how I love this hobby…

Going 2-4” for the Lehigh Valley tomorrow. But I won’t be there…I’m in Philly officiating a college tennis tournament. Last match is at 2 pm Sunday and should last about 2-3 hours. Perfect timing to head downtown afterwards and find a Super Bowl watch party.

SECS on the GFS for next weekend. Here we go again…

GFS went from weenie paradise to sending weenies jumping off bridges in just 6 hours. What an ugly 0z run tonight.

It’s because of the low resolution of the model. It always does this around the mix/snow line.

18z Euro isn’t as aggressive as the GFS but it still has a solid 6-8” storm for all of us.

Beautiful run of the 18z GFS. 8-12” on Tues-Wed with over a foot in the NW Philly burbs. Then another 6-12” north of the turnpike with the Thurs-Fri storm. Glorious!

18z NAM is still an outlier with warm mid levels, but it took a step towards the colder solutions. It actually gets snow west of the Delaware this time. That’s all I really wanted to see from it.

Crazy how models differ so much with the snow/sleet line at the onset of precip. The NAM has it pretty much entirely in NJ while the Euro and HRRR give the Lehigh Valley plowable snow. 18z NAM is coming out now, hopefully it’ll give us a clue.

Canadian is a disaster. Whiffs storm 1 next week and nearly does the same for storm 2.

I have to be somewhere at 11 so I’m hoping the roads aren’t too bad at that time. I’m able to take main roads for 95% of the drive which should help a lot.

GFS/Euro ensembles still love the Tues-Wed threat with another signal for Thurs-Fri appearing right on its heels.

Oh man…the 0z Euro is a dream run for the I-78 corridor. Ultra long duration storm starting late Monday night and not ending until Wednesday morning. Stripe of 20+” from Harrisburg to Allentown to NYC.

Two keys to this setup: 1. We need the energy to be vigorous and consolidated. The 0z GFS, as we just saw, has a few weak pieces of energy running around instead of one big, strong one. The Canadian also does this to a lesser extent. If the energy doesn’t consolidate this either misses to the south or gives us a weak light snow event or two. 2. The high to the north needs to keep pressing down. Let’s say we have our strong shortwave to the southwest, but the high trends much weaker. This causes the storm to be another front end snow to ice/rain event. Not only does a strong high to the north keep temperatures cold, but it enhances the thermal gradient which increases lift and makes the snow heavier, despite a sfc low that’s not as strong. This is why PDII was such a big storm with a low that never really bombed out like most KU storms.

18z GFS with a long duration event next Tues-Wed. Snow starts Tuesday morning and doesn't fully exit the area until Wednesday afternoon. Heavy snow misses to the south but it still gives us 6-12".

This was the first storm I remember tracking on the models. I used the PSU E-Wall site and looked at the GFS and NAM religiously for a week leading up to the storm. Being in 7th grade at the time I hardly knew what I was looking at but I knew it would get pretty crazy. My school ended up closing for that entire week after the storm as the sheer amount of sleet was very difficult to clean up.

Euro ensembles are still loving next Wednesday. If we’re going to get a big one this winter, next week looks like our best chance.

I basically live right on 78. I can hear it from my house. I expect Thursday to be very messy. Will probably stay home that day, at least until the afternoon.

18z GFS/Euro got colder for Sat-Sun too. Could be another fairly significant ice event.

And then gives us a HECS next weekend too. This is a seriously amazing pattern setting up and all the models generally agree.

Euro ensembles are honking LOUD for next Wednesday. Ensemble mean is 3-6” for the region which is pretty insane for something 9-10 days out. Last time I can remember a storm signal like this was Jan. 2016.

Turns out that stuff behind the main area of precip is actually sleet.