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LVblizzard

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Everything posted by LVblizzard

  1. LVblizzard
    I’m not buying the late arrival of precip on the NAM. It has been doing some weird stuff with the precip field for the last few runs. The 3km looks much more reasonable.
  2. LVblizzard
    18z HRRR keeps Philly mostly snow tomorrow. 4-8” for the region with the jackpot zone through the ABE area.
  3. LVblizzard
    Euro looks similar to 6z. A little colder for I-95.
  4. LVblizzard
    RGEM finally backed off its insane inland runner solution. Looks like a solid 4-8” from the Philly burbs through the LV, up to 10” in the Poconos.
  5. LVblizzard
    12z NAM + some other mesos are really pushing back the start time of this thing. Some have snow not starting till 2-3 pm.
  6. LVblizzard
    NAMs might be cold but they’re very dry. Less than 6” everywhere in our region.
  7. LVblizzard
    Both NAMs are very cold and don’t get the R/S line anywhere remotely close to Philly.
  8. LVblizzard
    Ensembles are VERY aggressive. Some members have a full on SECS.
  9. LVblizzard
    Euro ensembles honking for Wednesday. Plowable snow to Philly and possibly north. Super high ratio fluff with the sheer amount of cold air in place.
  10. LVblizzard
    Euro nudged NW a little and got wetter. Still no warning level snows except for some areas in Berks and Chesco. It’s getting there though!
  11. LVblizzard
    Dr. No holds steady at 18z with just 2-4” region-wide. Seems like an outlier at this point.
  12. LVblizzard
    It would benefit me but I want a snow game in south Philly just as much damn it!
  13. LVblizzard
    3km keeps the R/S line well SE of Philly while giving all of us moderate-heavy snow. The dream solution.
  14. LVblizzard
    It had the 6” line to the Lehigh Valley at one point. I don’t think 6” got within 100 miles of the area.
  15. LVblizzard
    Don’t look at the HRRR if you’re south of I-78 (aka most people in here)…
  16. LVblizzard
    Just posted my first call on my page. 4-8” for the Lehigh Valley. Even with a weaker storm like the Euro/UKMET, it will be very cold which will help get ratios to 15:1 or better here. I’m not really buying either of the outlier solutions (NAM nearly whiffing, RGEM bringing the low inland).
  17. LVblizzard
    So we have the GFS, Euro, UKMET, ICON, and 3km NAM snowing during the Eagles game. While the CMC/RGEM and RAP rain on Philly. Consensus still seems to favor a snow game.
  18. LVblizzard
    Euro is pretty much exactly the same as 6z with 3-6" area-wide.
  19. LVblizzard
    Take it from someone who lives in the northeast, the UKMET often overdoes the influence of cold and dry high pressure for our storms. I imagine it’s doing something similar in the south for next week.
  20. LVblizzard
    10 inches of snow isn’t as fun when you’re stressing about the R/S line for the entire storm.
  21. LVblizzard
    Man the GFS is great. We’d all be very happy with it. The only bad thing is that it’s the Goofus…
  22. LVblizzard
    The RGEM nearly rains to the Lehigh Valley. It has been super consistent but it’s so different from all the globals.
  23. LVblizzard
    Euro came in west, add that to the 3-6” camp.
  24. LVblizzard
    All 0z models have pretty much held serve so far. Except for the RGEM which runs the low basically over Philly now, and the ICON which got a little weaker but still gives us a decent 3-6" event.
  25. LVblizzard
    It snowed for 11 hours straight today. We got just over an inch. I'm not sure I've ever experienced an event quite like that where it snows for so long but we hardly get any accumulation.
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