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LVblizzard

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Everything posted by LVblizzard

  1. LVblizzard
    At this point we want the GEFS to be a miss to the east. 9 times out of 10 the GFS and its ensembles are the last ones to catch on with a storm like this.
  2. LVblizzard
    And here we go again! I’m not tired yet!!! (Although I’d like this to hold off till later Saturday evening since I have to drive back from State College that day.)
  3. LVblizzard
    It’s about to come on board based on hour 108. Possibly in a big way.
  4. LVblizzard
    All the other globals have it too but none of them tuck it in like the Euro. Gonna be more sleepless nights ahead looking at these models.
  5. LVblizzard
    Uhhhhh…what the hell? I did not expect a day 6 HECS on any model tonight.
  6. LVblizzard
    Ended up with about 11” in Allentown, very impressive given that we lost 7 hours of the storm to sleet.
  7. LVblizzard
    Main precip is done, just some snizzle left now. Shoveling wasn’t that bad…it really helps that more than 2/3 of our accumulation was fluffy powder.
  8. LVblizzard
    The HRRR has a warm bias at the surface but a cold bias in the mid levels. Sounds weird but that’s been something I’ve noticed with it over the years.
  9. LVblizzard
    Mostly snow again for the first time in 3 hours - however looking at radar that pesky mix line is trying to push north again.
  10. LVblizzard
    We’re in a battleground area here too but it’s about 80/20 sleet when snow does mix in.
  11. LVblizzard
    Heavy sleet here, few flakes mixed in. The mix line is less than 10 miles north of me. Pain.
  12. LVblizzard
    Same just to your southwest in Allentown. Feels like we’ll be right on or near the line all day.
  13. LVblizzard
    Some flakes mixing back in here. Radar shows that line creeping back north again though. May not last long.
  14. LVblizzard
    Changed to sleet in Allentown. Right on schedule with all the NAM runs from the past couple days. The line does appear to be crashing southeast in central PA…we’ll see if that makes it here and changes us back to snow at some point.
  15. LVblizzard
    Never underestimate the mid level warm air push in these storms. Even the 2021 blizzard had the sleet line precariously close to the LV when no models showed that.
  16. LVblizzard
    Heavy snow in Allentown. A little over 5” so far. Looks like we may get to around 10-12” before the sleet gets here. Also a little interesting that the mesos crash the sleet line SE later in the afternoon so it flips back to snow here.
  17. LVblizzard
    Meanwhile the NAM gets plain rain to Philly.
  18. LVblizzard
    It’s the NAM/RRFS vs. every other meso. Very intrigued to see how this plays out. I reduced my final call for the Lehigh Valley to 8-14” and I’m very confident in that right now.
  19. LVblizzard
    Ehhh we got them back in 2021. I think it’s even now.
  20. LVblizzard
    I will not fall for the HRRR again I will not fall for the HRRR again I will not fall for the HRRR again I will not fall for the HRRR again I will not fall for the HRRR again I will not fall for the HRRR again
  21. LVblizzard
    Hate to say it but it’s pretty useless to look at globals this close to the storm. Mesos and CAMs are more reliable at this range.
  22. LVblizzard
    NAM and RRFS are on their own with the extreme mid level warm air surge. None of the other globals or mesos agree with pushing sleet to the Poconos.
  23. LVblizzard
    Euro just came in with an absolute nuke.
  24. LVblizzard
    That too…reflectivity is bright and CC shows a clear boundary from roughly Ada to McAlester. Still means the NAM was too warm which has me injecting some hopium.
  25. LVblizzard
    Look at mPING as it relies on actual observations, not the colors on radar maps. It currently has sleet up to Ada, OK, right in line with the Euro and HRRR. It does appear the NAM was too warm at the mid levels, though, as it had sleet up to I-40 where it’s currently all snow.
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