LVblizzard
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Everything posted by LVblizzard
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Ended with about 6 inches here. Not a huge bust on the level of Boxing Day or Juno, but it’s definitely a “what could have been” storm.
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Light snow here, about 5 inches. Looks like some banding will find its way here overnight but it doesn’t look like it’ll be anything special. Not worth staying up for it, I’ll have to find out how much additional snow we get in the morning.
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What a massive fail by the RGEM. It’s going to bust low everywhere.
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A lot of the short range models show a lull overnight followed by more in the morning. All depends on how the low tracks.
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They really want an additional 4-12" here? 4", sure...no way we get a foot though.
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Your total seems awfully low...I have 4" and there are multiple reports exceeding that in the area.
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Snow has lightened up here but it's still steady. About 4 inches so far. Looks like another heavier band is trying to make its way here.
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Based on the info drought guy has given us I think he lives on the mountain south of Macungie. This is the type of storm where he should get a couple inches more than us just because of terrain enhanced snow.
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A little north of Macungie, close to Dorney Park.
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Made it into that heavy band, at least for the moment. 2 inches on the ground. Less than 2 more inches and we exceed the RGEM total!
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I’ve seen Boxing Day floated as an analog for this. I’m already very close to my total from that storm with moderate snow falling. That band to the south looks nice…hopefully it makes it up this way.
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Getting some stickage now, roads are still just wet though.
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Changed over to snow in Allentown about 15 minutes ago. Radar and latest HRRR both look good. Even if it’s not the insane model solutions from yesterday it looks like we’ll squeeze a pretty good storm out of this.
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On a side note, what is up with so many people making a mad dash to the grocery store? Even if the original 12-18” were to verify, it’s not like we’d be stuck in the house for more than a day or two.
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The HRRR appears to have halted the east trend. All runs since 12z have looked very similar.
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There is simply no chance the Jersey shore sees less than a foot like it’s showing.
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Lowered my forecast on my page to 6-12”. It doesn’t look like the heavy banding will miss the Lehigh Valley entirely, but it won’t sit and pivot over us like some of yesterday’s hi-res models showed.
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The RGEM is still looking like trash. No warning criteria snow anywhere in PA, and even the Jersey shore struggles to get to double digits. At this point it’s still a massive outlier.
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The bust declarations in here are crazy. Reading this thread you’d think we all went from 2 feet to nothing. How about letting this storm actually play out before whining.
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Yeah I don’t think we’re completely out of the game by any means. All 12z hi-res guidance has at least some banding making it here. The totals end up being lower because it doesn’t stick around for as long due to a shift east in the track, plus geographic influences as I mentioned earlier.
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This is the exact kind of storm where the Lehigh Valley can get screwed by the geography of the area. Hi-res models have been hinting at this ever since they came into range, including the latest HRRR which gives the Poconos and Philly burbs 12-18” yet Allentown struggles to get to 6”. The same thing happened here during Boxing Day, although this one doesn’t look like as big of a bust. Hopefully.
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Mt. Holly always goes super aggressive and refuses to back down. 12-18” is way too high here, I’d cut that in half. Yet it seems that they’ve doubled down overnight. Latest HRRR still looks decent here but once again, the east bump is real. The I-81 area is now under a bust warning, it looks like they will get screwed by the subsidence zone. Another shift east or two and Allentown is next.
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Euro came in with a 10-18” storm for the area. Love to see it finally come fully on board!
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There is a bit of an east shift in all the global guidance so far tonight. Not sure it’s really the time to be looking at global models but I feel like it can’t be completely ignored.
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Lock in the GFS please. Not because it’s a weenie solution for my area but because it verifies my forecast perfectly
