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LVblizzard

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Everything posted by LVblizzard

  1. LVblizzard
    12z NAM is substantially colder north of Philly. All snow for I-78 north. Jackpot zone of 16-20” for the LV and Poconos.
  2. LVblizzard
    Ehhhh NAM looks pretty similar to me so far. I don’t expect any major changes from 6z.
  3. LVblizzard
    Not sure how much it matters or if it’ll even translate to the other 12z runs, but there is a major change at H5 by hour 30. The northern stream is not digging anywhere near as much as it was at 6z. There’s also a better press of mid level cold air.
  4. LVblizzard
    All the other mesos, including the 3km NAM, think the NAM is way too warm FWIW.
  5. LVblizzard
    Seems to me that the north trend stopped with 0z last night. Models have been pretty consistent today. Now we just need them to converge on a solution.
  6. LVblizzard
    Had to do it…
  7. LVblizzard
    Faster with the northern stream, slower with the southern stream. This will likely lead to a colder outcome.
  8. LVblizzard
    Nah…we’re probably seeing around a foot. Remember that the initial thump will be HEAVY. Even the warmest models give us 8 or 9 inches before any changeover.
  9. LVblizzard
    It has more of a “doing things that don’t make sense” bias. And it only gets worse the longer it runs.
  10. LVblizzard
    The phase looks like it will happen a bit later on this run. Both the northern and southern streams are hanging back a bit more.
  11. LVblizzard
    12z HRRR had the same thing.
  12. LVblizzard
    I mentioned February 2014 earlier in this thread. The UKMET essentially repeats that. Huge front end thump, a period of a light wintry mix, then the CCB swinging through at the end. Would be a widespread foot plus for the area.
  13. LVblizzard
    UKMET is kind of strange in that it really blasts that primary into WV/PA but it doesn’t torch the mid levels as fast as the Canadian which does the same thing at the surface.
  14. LVblizzard
    It’s not a bad model. But when it’s wrong it’s usually too amped, not the other way around.
  15. LVblizzard
    That’s the big saving grace with this storm. The front end thump is a THUMP. Even the torchiest models have warning level snow before the changeover happens.
  16. LVblizzard
    ICON is better. Primary is more south with confluence pressing down a little harder. Still won’t produce this subforum’s desired result but at least it’s not another step in the wrong direction.
  17. LVblizzard
    Would be an ultra long duration event with how expansive the overrunning stuff is. I do think that eventually we’d mix if extrapolated but not before a really crazy thump of snow.
  18. LVblizzard
    Something crazy I noticed is that the southern stream vortmax is near Midland/Odessa, TX at hour 84. At 78 hours at 18z, it was near Wichita, KS. Just a subtle 500 mile difference.
  19. LVblizzard
    Not sure that it wouldn’t take the primary up there in the end. The low is farther south than the globals but it’s also much slower. Those could cancel each other out in the end.
  20. LVblizzard
    I would think that’s not a good thing. If both of those pieces are slower, it gives more time for the confluence to move out and room for this thing to come pretty far north.
  21. LVblizzard
    We really want the confluence to be stronger and the high to stick around for longer. That will give us the long duration blizzard we all want.
  22. LVblizzard
    The northern stream feature on that Euro run was likely much different from what most guidance is showing now. It has really trended west in the last 2 days.
  23. LVblizzard
    And that’s why it’s known as the GooFuS!
  24. LVblizzard
    February 2014 was like this. Still gave ABE 16”.
  25. LVblizzard
    Canadian is really the only 12z model that gets a prolonged period of sleet north of I-95. Euro and UKMET push it a little past Philly but it’s when the bulk of the precip is already done.
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