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LVblizzard

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Everything posted by LVblizzard

  1. LVblizzard
    If you’re comparing it to 12z it’s better. But 18z was overall better than the current run.
  2. LVblizzard
    It started off better but that piece of energy over the great lakes ended up farther south which doesn’t allow for the amplification we need to have this thing climb the coast.
  3. LVblizzard
    Tonight’s model scorecard so far: Big storm: GFS Plowable event: Canadian Nuisance event: ICON Miss/flurries: UKMET, probably the NAM
  4. LVblizzard
    Well the GFS certainly isn't backing down. 1-2 feet south of Philly, 6-12" up to the Lehigh Valley. Not really buying it right now but it's nice to at least have a shred of hope remaining.
  5. LVblizzard
    I think our best bet is with the inverted trough feature that most models are picking up on. The ICON showed a region-wide 1-3” from it. We’ll see what the other models do.
  6. LVblizzard
    Sun angle is much higher than in December which makes it feel warmer and more like spring. That’s my guess anyway.
  7. LVblizzard
    It’s crazy how so many people are always surprised when it snows well into March. Yes it’s not meteorological winter anymore, but historically it’s a snowier month than December.
  8. LVblizzard
    18z Euro doesn’t give us what we want but it improved quite a bit over 12z at both H5 and the surface. Tonight’s 0z runs will be very interesting.
  9. LVblizzard
    18z GFS got better too. Only 18z model that's a dud so far is the NAM, and it still improved at H5. Interested to see what the Euro does. I don't expect it to be a hit, but I'd welcome any improvements.
  10. LVblizzard
    Are we all just going to ignore the RGEM? End of the run looks decent and it would probably lead to something pretty juicy.
  11. LVblizzard
    The NAM did improve slightly at H5 but the surface is still complete dogshit.
  12. LVblizzard
    Euro misses with the IVT too. Worst case scenario for the subforum.
  13. LVblizzard
    Well now the regular Euro is out and it is indeed trash. Not sure about any precip from the IVT since those maps aren’t out yet, but the coastal misses by hundreds of miles.
  14. LVblizzard
    We also need Friday’s storm to get out of the way to allow heights to rise on the east coast. Otherwise even a very amplified system is staying mostly south of PA.
  15. LVblizzard
    18z GFS reminds me a lot of Boxing Day 2010. A storm that was so painfully close in eastern PA.
  16. LVblizzard
    We’re not in a bad spot at the moment. Would prefer if the trends at 18z don’t continue at 0z though.
  17. LVblizzard
    Not surprising with the convoluted upper air setup in Canada. Nothing will be nailed down until tomorrow night or early Thursday.
  18. LVblizzard
    ICON isn’t like 12z at all but it shouldn’t be a nothingburger like the Euro was.
  19. LVblizzard
    That storm started on a Sunday afternoon and didn’t fully end till Wednesday morning. It was like 6 inches on Sunday, 15 inches on Monday, and the rest on Tuesday and Wednesday. I think the total at ABE airport was about 2 feet. One of our greatest storms of all time.
  20. LVblizzard
    Still have the RGEM run saved where it printed out 4-5 feet for the Lehigh Valley.
  21. LVblizzard
    DT has some kind of weird love affair with that model. Every forecast he puts out essentially mirrors what it shows.
  22. LVblizzard
    The GFS/GEFS were consistently too far south and east with the storm 3 weeks ago.
  23. LVblizzard
    The sun angle is doing work this week. There is a bare spot in my yard, first actual grass I’ve seen in about a month. Snowpack is now dwindling by about an inch or two per day.
  24. LVblizzard
    If you live and die by individual model runs sure.
  25. LVblizzard
    The answer is no. It misses again.
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