LVblizzard
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Everything posted by LVblizzard
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There is simply no chance the Jersey shore sees less than a foot like it’s showing.
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Lowered my forecast on my page to 6-12”. It doesn’t look like the heavy banding will miss the Lehigh Valley entirely, but it won’t sit and pivot over us like some of yesterday’s hi-res models showed.
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The RGEM is still looking like trash. No warning criteria snow anywhere in PA, and even the Jersey shore struggles to get to double digits. At this point it’s still a massive outlier.
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The bust declarations in here are crazy. Reading this thread you’d think we all went from 2 feet to nothing. How about letting this storm actually play out before whining.
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Yeah I don’t think we’re completely out of the game by any means. All 12z hi-res guidance has at least some banding making it here. The totals end up being lower because it doesn’t stick around for as long due to a shift east in the track, plus geographic influences as I mentioned earlier.
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This is the exact kind of storm where the Lehigh Valley can get screwed by the geography of the area. Hi-res models have been hinting at this ever since they came into range, including the latest HRRR which gives the Poconos and Philly burbs 12-18” yet Allentown struggles to get to 6”. The same thing happened here during Boxing Day, although this one doesn’t look like as big of a bust. Hopefully.
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Mt. Holly always goes super aggressive and refuses to back down. 12-18” is way too high here, I’d cut that in half. Yet it seems that they’ve doubled down overnight. Latest HRRR still looks decent here but once again, the east bump is real. The I-81 area is now under a bust warning, it looks like they will get screwed by the subsidence zone. Another shift east or two and Allentown is next.
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Euro came in with a 10-18” storm for the area. Love to see it finally come fully on board!
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There is a bit of an east shift in all the global guidance so far tonight. Not sure it’s really the time to be looking at global models but I feel like it can’t be completely ignored.
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Lock in the GFS please. Not because it’s a weenie solution for my area but because it verifies my forecast perfectly
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FWIW the HRDPS (hi-res version of the RGEM) is signficantly better than its lower res parent. It’s still on the lower end of the models but it has warning criteria snow for the entire region.
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Still liking my 8-16” call for the Lehigh Valley. If you blend the amped AF mesos and the farther east models you get something in that range.
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The RGEM was the last model to cave in 2016. It had been showing a miss north of Philly for days. I vividly remember watching the 0z run come in with a big snowstorm as the storm was starting on Friday night and knowing at that moment we were in for something historic.
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Why can’t it ever be easy damn it? 2016 and 2021 were very uncertain until the last minute too.
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Would not be surprised to see the NWS hoist blizzard warnings into PA tonight or early tomorrow.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
LVblizzard replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Snowpack is gone here except in spots that don’t see any sun. -
I went fairly aggressive on my page after that Euro run. 8-16” for the Lehigh Valley. At this point I start to trust mesos more than globals, but that run was the reassurance I needed that we’re probably getting something big.
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Just about a full cave on the Euro. 8-12” region-wide with some areas of 16” near the shore.
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I’d up it to 6-12” for the LV. I think we get into the heavy banding for at least a few hours tomorrow night. I don’t buy the models that completely miss us with it.
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For them, yes. For this subforum it’s essentially the same.
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I was admittedly a little concerned last night after seeing the Euro…looks like the short range and meso models are easing my worries this morning.
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Sorry but the NAM doesn’t make any sense to me. There’s no reason it should start noticeably worse and then go and do that. It seems like one of those classic NAM runs that has no chance of verifying but looks great through weenie goggles.
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We’re at the point where we’re running out of time for any significant trends. It’s likely that the GFS is too amped and the Euro is too progressive. Blend them together and it’s still a warning level event for our area. That’s enough model watching for me tonight. I need sleep.
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Look at hours 45 and 48. The run recovers and gives all of us heavy snow.
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NAM recovers very nicely at hour 45. 3km is looking decent too.
