LVblizzard
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Everything posted by LVblizzard
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Mt. Holly always goes super aggressive and refuses to back down. 12-18” is way too high here, I’d cut that in half. Yet it seems that they’ve doubled down overnight. Latest HRRR still looks decent here but once again, the east bump is real. The I-81 area is now under a bust warning, it looks like they will get screwed by the subsidence zone. Another shift east or two and Allentown is next.
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Euro came in with a 10-18” storm for the area. Love to see it finally come fully on board!
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There is a bit of an east shift in all the global guidance so far tonight. Not sure it’s really the time to be looking at global models but I feel like it can’t be completely ignored.
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Lock in the GFS please. Not because it’s a weenie solution for my area but because it verifies my forecast perfectly
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FWIW the HRDPS (hi-res version of the RGEM) is signficantly better than its lower res parent. It’s still on the lower end of the models but it has warning criteria snow for the entire region.
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Still liking my 8-16” call for the Lehigh Valley. If you blend the amped AF mesos and the farther east models you get something in that range.
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The RGEM was the last model to cave in 2016. It had been showing a miss north of Philly for days. I vividly remember watching the 0z run come in with a big snowstorm as the storm was starting on Friday night and knowing at that moment we were in for something historic.
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Why can’t it ever be easy damn it? 2016 and 2021 were very uncertain until the last minute too.
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Would not be surprised to see the NWS hoist blizzard warnings into PA tonight or early tomorrow.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
LVblizzard replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Snowpack is gone here except in spots that don’t see any sun. -
I went fairly aggressive on my page after that Euro run. 8-16” for the Lehigh Valley. At this point I start to trust mesos more than globals, but that run was the reassurance I needed that we’re probably getting something big.
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Just about a full cave on the Euro. 8-12” region-wide with some areas of 16” near the shore.
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I’d up it to 6-12” for the LV. I think we get into the heavy banding for at least a few hours tomorrow night. I don’t buy the models that completely miss us with it.
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For them, yes. For this subforum it’s essentially the same.
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I was admittedly a little concerned last night after seeing the Euro…looks like the short range and meso models are easing my worries this morning.
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Sorry but the NAM doesn’t make any sense to me. There’s no reason it should start noticeably worse and then go and do that. It seems like one of those classic NAM runs that has no chance of verifying but looks great through weenie goggles.
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We’re at the point where we’re running out of time for any significant trends. It’s likely that the GFS is too amped and the Euro is too progressive. Blend them together and it’s still a warning level event for our area. That’s enough model watching for me tonight. I need sleep.
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Look at hours 45 and 48. The run recovers and gives all of us heavy snow.
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NAM recovers very nicely at hour 45. 3km is looking decent too.
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Let’s flip the script here…if all the models were showing a miss/graze and the Euro was the only one showing a snowstorm, which would you go with? The rest of the models won when this scenario happened with Juno in 2015.
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Not as disgustingly bad as the OP run. But still. Not what you want to see.
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In case anyone is wondering about a situation in which the Euro failed spectacularly in the short range. This is from 2 years ago.
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Look no further than a week ago. GFS had 6 inches, RGEM had nothing. End result was somewhere in the middle.
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Euro is Boxing Day all over again for the Lehigh Valley. Forecast was up to a foot, we only got 2 inches. It’s the first storm that comes to mind when I think of bad busts. I’m too young to remember 2001.
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Euro is an absolute disaster. Just 2-4” except by the shore. It has a screw zone of just an inch directly over Allentown. No bueno.
