Jump to content

LongBeachSurfFreak

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,413

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It’s not going regain tropical characteristics but it will get a baroclynic boost. Regardless there are going to be flooding issues in the mid Atlantic. We had 7” of rain in NYC from Henri last week and another 2” since then. 6 more inches in a short time will cause major flash flooding
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    If that’s the case there is going to be major flash flooding. I’m very concerned about water table rise as well.
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Grand Isle missed the inner eye wall and worst surge. And as you said hurricanes travel with their surge, if this had been a long track 4 the surge would have been much greater. Another thing to consider is the building types in the area. Almost everything right near the water is on pilings. That stretch of coast is so incredibly hurricane prone things are built to last through even a major.
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    6” of rain after the the recent rains will cause major problems. When we had 10+ inches in October 05 on the island the whole water table rose on my parents block and flooded everyone’s basements
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I feel really bad about coastal areas there that are board flat. This is pretty close to a worst case scenario.
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I’m worried about soft ground issues on the island. We had another moderate rain event (2” at the wantagh meso and more over parts of Suffolk) this weekend. Trees are sitting in soup. Add another major rain event and it will not take much wind to cause problems.
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    The wind has been relentless at Jones beach all day. Sand storm conditions with winds sustained 25 and gusting to 35mph
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I think we see something similar to Katrina where within 12 hours you have this monster crystal clear eye pop on satellite. No just RI but explosive intensification. OHC is just perfect
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Max overall 175 max at landfall 140 pressure at landfall 922 location New Iberia
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Full on monsoon currently on the uws. Here we go again with flash flooding!
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Those storms along the Jersey shore have to be producing some serious flash flooding. Stationary forever.
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Rapid intensification is still very difficult to forecast. So something much higher then a cat 3 is still very much on the table. The NHC is playing the middle road between a Cat 1/2 if rapid intensification doesn’t occur and 4/5 if it goes full tilt.
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Your making assumptions based off the lower Manhattan reports. 1821 just happened to have the perfect track for surge for Manhattan. But it was less impactful for the region as a whole then Sandy
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    38 was a more impactful storm east of its center with a true cat 3 tropical core. I could see a scenario where we something similar displaced 50 miles west. That’s the ultimate storm we could hypothetically see here as a cat 3 core would bring a higher storm surge and obviously much greater winds then sandy. You would obliterate the power grids with PR style outages lasting months
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Perfect example ground truth exceeding radar images just now in the city. Some of the heaviest rain I have seen with that small cell. Pure monsoon
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    This is very much in line with me thinking. I would love to experience a major hit the island. But this storm seems more of a nuisance. Without major extra tropical transition this is a core event. So unless your within 20 miles of the landfall location winds are rather pedestrian
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I doubt the NHC will adjust their track and resultant warnings too much today. If the far west trend is real then maybe tomorrow
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Any hurricane will cause upwelling regardless of speed. That’s why OHC is more important then surface temps. The reason our biggest strongest canes are moving fast is they just don’t have time to weaken over our cooler waters as they rocket out of the Gulf Stream. A big reason our strongest cane in modern times 38, was also the fastest moving Atlantic hurricane of all time
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Those temps are very deceptive. They are surface temps. Our waters cool rapidly once 10+ feet down. So move a hurricane over and the winds and seas quickly upwell cooler water. Watch the water temps after this weekend cool into the high 60s
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    While it definitely initiated too strong there is a nice window for significant intensification while Henri is over high OHC and aligned with vertical shear. Pretty much anything is still on the table. The only certainty is in large swells and beach erosion regardless of track
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    .00” at the wantagh meso to add to the .00” for the last 7 days. Hopefully that will change in a big way soon
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Very very true. This is why carol has always intrigued me. Because it didn’t follow the 38 playbook. It was home grown and not moving at 60mph but still managed to make landfall as a major. So if Henri happens to take advantage of the window of favorable conditions it will have when it’s crossing the Gulf Stream and overachieve there is a scenario where this is still a formidable hurricane at landfall. Ohhhh and waters are way above historical levels so our normal hurricane buffer isn’t as strong as it used to be
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Heading over some of the highest OHC in the basin and pretty close to peak season. If I were on the Yucatán I would be prepared for a major just in case
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I was just thinking about him. This is the best cape threat in a long time. Regardless of the final track it’s going to be a fun week at north east beach’s
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I think that has allot to do with the fact that it’s not being forced up the coast after a Carolina hit later in the season via a trough. That scenario always seems to really degrade storms. Regardless of direct impact, days of large swells will cause beach erosion and lead to beach closures right during prime beach season.
×
×
  • Create New...