
SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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The RGEM amounts make no sense even if its features ended up correct. Bigger amounts would occur in NE PA and NW NJ. Some of those areas with those insane totals on that snow map would downslope
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I would definitely say 8-12 or 9-12 right now to be safe
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Too far out still to an extent though at 48-60 the NAM is not as bad as it is from 60-84. If the NAM is showing virtually the same idea run to run with only minor changes its more likely to be onto something than if you see big changes. This is the 3rd consecutive run now where it has not moved much.
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I would feel pretty good saying 10 plus there right now
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When I said days ago I would rather be in NYC than SNE I did not mean it for the reason it may transpire lol...the way the system tracks trying to make the appearance of an exit and then taking the north hook or turn like 3/2013 could allow warmer air to make enrodes there faster/more west. My initial concerns were the jackpot of snow would simply be SW of them
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That east inflow is up there with February 83. Dec 09 was a similar evolution to Feb 83 but the best inflow and dynamics occurred south over NJ and again over SNE. This time its gonna be the real deal in this area
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You can see at 60-66 the Euro picks up on the fact there will be an insane mega band near or just north of NYC
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Yeah, which is why at first it appeared to be coming in south but in the end it ticked a bit north
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Yeah, it had some similarities to April 82 in the general pattern but it was a more dirty/late phase and really favored eastern area. NYC lucked out a bit with a mega band that developed late as the 700 low closed off. The forecast looked to be on its way to severely busting for awhile that evening
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There will be a shaft zone if indeed the changeover gets as far west as NYC because the dynamics don't get going for awhile. I said before the snow could be pretty light and unimpressive through 12Z Monday before it goes crazy. There is sort of a zone in SE PA and SW NJ that might do well all night but up here I think it could be pretty meh and then go nuts after 10-12Z..if the changeover makes it far west I think there will be a relative snow min area
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Even if there is a changeover west of ERN LI there will be Jan 87/Feb 2014 type amounts before the change. I would still not be worried 5 boroughs and west at this stage
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Basically the RGEM and NAM are pretty unreliable past 48...especially when they're doing something way different than other models or waffling around from run to run. Even the NAM right now I would not trust entirely past 36-48 with this since its been bouncing around quite a bit
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The RGEM beyond 36 has often had a tendency to overamp and go crazy. It does it less often since I believe they upgraded it in 2018 but you'll still see it, especially with these dynamic east coast storms
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There is a tendency with most big storms to see a movement in the 48-90 range which then reverses back. I still think QPF will be underestimated with this due to that crazy easterly flow
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I'm not sure it'll happen given the HRRR is probably worse at 48-60 than the NAM is
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Likely 7pm-1am Sunday night but the first few hours of this event will probably be pretty meaningless light snow
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I’ve been going 6-10 so far for NYC, less north and west more east haha but not more specific
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The flow becomes more NNE by the time the better snows get north of the city which is why I think the max benefits of that 850 easterly flow probably happen from around the city south
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not really. The mid March 2018 event is a close match on track to a degree but better air mass now than it was that storm changes everything
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The NAM evolution after 66 looked good. That type of east inflow is likely to produce more QPF than the 18 run had 66-84
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The confluence early in the run was actually worse near New England on the Euro but it exited faster and the system slowed or semi stalled not to mention it occluded a bit later. I still think we could just as easily see this tick south again as it could north
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