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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    If it does not wrap that area of dry air back in I think it goes off until it gets to an ERC so 140-150 is probably a legitimate possibility
  2. SnowGoose69
    It seems no matter how pristine conditions are that once you are out of the eastern Caribbean or open Atlantic east of the Islands these systems typically won't deepen a ton during the diurnal period...it usually occurs at night
  3. SnowGoose69
    Once again it appears its ready to take off and its kicking that area of dry air out to the west but it could ultimately wrap it back in again in 2-3 hours so who knows
  4. SnowGoose69
    They'll probably call it 110 or 115
  5. SnowGoose69
    In general any landfalling cane in the US comes in a tad right of what you expect, even at 3-6 hours out because they'll tend to dance a bit to avoid land before coming in. We even see this with small islands where they'll deviate to the right by 10 miles or so
  6. SnowGoose69
    It was real bad with Henri. I’m not sure it’s that effective with tropical systems. The ICON oddly enough across the lower 48 has tended to verify better at times with significant storm details at 72-84 and beyond than inside that range
  7. SnowGoose69
    Katrina was also weakening. That resulted in probably less wind damage than this storm. However Katrina had a lag surge, it may have been a 3 but likely still had the surge of a 4 or 5. It’s possible Ida might come in as a 4 but have the surge of a 3. There does tend to be a lag of 12-24 hours sometimes on surge. Obviously if Ida becomes a 4 by this time tomorrow there won’t be any lag
  8. SnowGoose69
    Ultimately last night's event will result in 8-10 inch totals but most felt 3-6 was more likely prior to that. Its always had to know where the axis of heaviest rain will be. You know it'll be on the W side of a tropical cyclone at this latitude but it can be anywhere from the NW side to the SW side or the entire side and models typically never pin it down. The Euro had the right idea overall today as did the high res GFS but both were too high on amounts. The Euro had like 4 inches in Nassau County today alone and I don't think anyone quite saw that
  9. SnowGoose69
    We are in that window now where you do not want to break out of this rain on LI or see things try to clear out...still have 30-35kts at 925mb which ordinarily is not really bad but with soaked ground we could see 10s of thousands of outages very quickly if we see the rain end and get some breaks. Parents told me Merrick is now gusting 30-31kts.
  10. SnowGoose69
    There was definitely a band of decent winds for awhile in Nassau/W Suffolk but the last 30-45 minutes it seems to be dropping back down again. Were some gusts of 28-34 for a time
  11. SnowGoose69
    As long as it keeps raining and stays largely overcast I see no issues. If however the rain breaks up or slides south it could be dangerous as it might allow enough destabilizing in the lower layers to start mixing those 925 winds down. It would not necessarily be that strong but certainly 240-260 25G35-40 would be possible and with soaked ground you'd start losing trees left and right probably under those circumstances. I think W LI/5 boroughs are the areas to watch 2-6pm to see if that might happen. My hunch now is the N shore of LI/Queens/Bronx is the spot to watch. think south of there might stay more rainy and stable
  12. SnowGoose69
    They are definitely not going to finish this golf tournament over in ERN NJ tomorrow....the axis of rain will likely sit in that area all day
  13. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I am guessing PW values are not as good because my parents place in Merrick was under pretty dark echoes earlier and got very little rain. Last night under similar DBZs the totals were higher. I think it rains steadily til 4-5pm but not sure how much falls
  14. SnowGoose69
    They are actually working through the storm because winds just are not strong enough. There's been several big outages 1-3K out on the E End and they've repaired them within an hour. I doubt LI gets more than 20-30K outages at this rate which means even if you somehow go out you're back probably by tomorrow at worst
  15. SnowGoose69
    Too bad the KBID ASOS went down hours ago
  16. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I would say til 21Z there could be solid rains NYC east and even NRN NJ. I think though that most places won't exactly see tons of rain based on radar though...some pockets will pull off 3-4-5 inches though
  17. SnowGoose69
    The best part is the TAFs...60kts at ISP and 44kts at JFK. My hunch is there is some sort of agreement to appease NHC for the warnings because 925 winds do not support anything remotely near that.
  18. SnowGoose69
    I would not pull the plug yet on TS winds...if the wind field expands enough its possible the 16-21Z period could see gusts of 40-45 in W Suffolk but that may be pushing it.
  19. SnowGoose69
    Looks like the 11pm track no longer makes LF on LI
  20. SnowGoose69
    The hurricane warning probably should be dropped for western half of Suffolk
  21. SnowGoose69
    Goodness I didn’t expect it to continue this much. Even the HWRF went east. Could always slide west last second but I think FOK would be absolute furthest west at this stage. I think it was able to just escape the trof enough the last 18 hours it was able to tick its way east
  22. SnowGoose69
    Yeah usually a lag and in this case that won’t ever translate. This probably (unless you believe the Euro) comes in as a true tropical too and not an ETer which means those winds don’t mix down as well as a land falling strengthening storm. I’m not sure what to expect even for far eastern LI and RI as far as winds
  23. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I would be wary of using the HRRR for track but it’s pretty typical on the NW side of these, especially when they’re weakening at landfall that it’s tough to mix down winds. Even Sandy didn’t really mix well before the area got into the SE quadrant and that was more of a warm seclusion ET than this will be
  24. SnowGoose69
    One thing to remember too is wind direction is big with these storms. Winds of 30-40 in nassau or west Suffolk from 280-350 are way less likely to cause damage than winds of 220-110 of the same speed because tree roots here are more accustomed to big winds from the W-NW than SSW-SE. that is one good point JB often makes and is very true
  25. SnowGoose69
    At this stage I tend to trust globals more. That said the previous Euro run the Op was somewhat west of most ensembles. We will see what the 12z has
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