SnowGoose69

The Euro seems out to lunch on this one, I am still wary of totally discounting it, maybe the 06z run was a blip but its evolution overall is just different than any other model right now.

The NAM is almost always the slowest model when it comes to start times, the fact its consistently been the earliest for the last 2 days tells me it might be right

I'm not worried too much about suppression as I am maybe storms not being able to amp up quite as much if the SER is flatter than that Op run shows

The GFS still could be overdoing the presence of the SER so I am not sold post 2/13-2/14 that storm tracks are going to be that far north.

The AI which has probably performed best on start time in many of these precip events has 07-08z for NYC. Probably means the UKMET/GFS/Euro might be too slow right now and NAM slightly too fast. It also has a slight wedging signature showing up. I think NE NJ/N parts of NYC have to be wary of this event staying frozen for most of it. We'll see what the NAM shows as it gets closer. As of today it shows most places turning SE on winds

Definitely need some sort of mesoscale help on this one to get more than a quick shot of snow, high positioning just not great though some higher res models show it could try to wedge itself in for a bit. Its why I am nervous about LGA/EWR on north holding onto ZR or PL longer before going to all rain but the event that follows this one looks more promising though I still think its the 10th and beyond when any all snow event is likely.

GEFS more or less moving that way, still has a ton of members going into nothing or even back into 2-3 but more today seem to be moving towards 8-1 than previous days

Some signs the ensembles may be bailing on the SSW. IMO I have no issues with that, I think the pattern is otherwise going to be favorable anyway, give me a good few weeks with chances for snow and don't prolong the cold til like 4/15 which is a risk if we get a SSW.

JFK east went over to rain. LGA west I’m not sure they ever did. Maybe for an hour or so they got some light rain but then it went back below freezing. Most areas simply just dry slotted

It’s always smart to never go much over 3-5 in any snow to rain event here. While to can exceed that it takes an extreme circumstance such as the 93 blizzard or very intense banding. The November 2018 and 93 blizzard are only two snow to rain events I recall that were 6 or more. Some came close like January 99 December 03 January 91 but all were about 5-5.5

HUH? LGA 030000 METAR 022351Z 04007KT 6SM -RASN OVC030 M02/M04 A3033 RMK AO2 RAB50SNB48 SLP270 P0000 60000 T1017107211011 21028 56026

18Z Euro is a bit colder at the start for the 6th, would definitely have snow for several hours on the next event too

I think the SE ridge is gonna be pretty much toasted after 2/15, but I don't fear suppression really as of now. I think likely lack of a strong -NAO should prevent that

I had said days ago don't buy into the 8th setup, even the 6th will be all rain at the coast probably because the high position is bad. The 8th has a chance of starting as something frozen but more likely PL or FZRA. Thereafter is where snow is more likely but still probably more of a classic SWFE where it goes snow to rain

My recollection whoever ran the server did not pay the bill and it just died for like 1-2 weeks then all of a sudden a notice came that the new site was coming.

GFS probably out to lunch on Wednesday, I am still not sold on the 8th-9th either, I think it may be after that where the threats start. At least as far as snow

Haven't they been torchy the entire winter too? I seem to remember them showing January being like 2002 or 2012

The GEFS has been awful on it all winter and the last 3 days many of its members have moved pretty heavily towards the EPS idea so my hunch is the EPS is going to win again.

Its still early but I am becoming somewhat more optimistic perhaps we see a good 8-1-2 wave again. In the last 2 days its evident the EPS has really has the GEFS move towards it on the MJO idea, at least in the near term. The GEFS still seems to want to maybe kill the wave in 7 or late in 6 though.

I would not get too excited about 2/8. I suspect there is high risk that ends up well to the north. There is also a chance it could just be flat and nothing if again the whole progressiveness of the pattern is being underestimated at this range. Overall it requires nearly perfect timing of everything to work

Even the Op GFS you can see how inside D10-12 or so its capable of seeing the shift to the cold pushing east like the Euro/EPS showed but its just unable to resolve the idea beyond that of the Pac jet again probably preventing the SER from being able to flex. TBH even the EPS at 00Z after D13 tries again to build the SER. I think as long as the TPV is not in SE Canada like in Jan/The AO is not strongly negative/The PNA is not positive that the models are going to keep trying to default to a 2018 like SER after 260 hours

It was either Eric Webb or BAMWX who nailed it back in October. They kept showing how some of the indices indicated it would be a La Nina which more favored the poleward ridge over the E PAC/AK. I have not seen any research on this one, not sure if Don has any stats on it. Some others stated that a - AO/NAO episode in the 12/15-1/15 period or so, especially if its strong will tend to correlate with another episode the following winter in the same period. I cannot really make sense of that but indeed that period did have a -AO/NAO in 23-24 and 24-25 but we've seen cases where that does not occur. Example ragingly +NAO/AO in Dec 2001 and Dec 2011 following negative episodes in 2000 and 2010

I think thats why it was Ben Noll arguing on x last week he does not buy the sudden ENSO model shift to a La Nina next winter, he thinks it may be a rare case of the models being confused by the late peaking La Nina here, he is leaning towards a weak to moderate Nino I believe though none of the climate models show that now.

Same story continues on ensembles. Continuation at an attempted overdone SER D13-16 only to see it dampened as it gets closer to D10. Both the GEFS/EPS last night really push the ridge poleward by AK too post 240. Still think we see a couple of events in February, even at the coast.

General consensus on CMC/Euro and ensembles the last few cycles is positive around D10-11 but then the SER tries to come back, whether that really happens or not may depend upon the Pac jet as well as where the MJO is. If it leans weaker I think there is a better chance something like the Op Euro D10-16 is the general pattern, if its stronger something like the Op GFS D13-16 more likely. This winter the verification on the MJO has tended to be like 65-35 EPS vs prior years where it was about 92-8 GEFS