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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Euro is .27 snow at LGA but again taking those numbers verbatim is iffy..the Euro does indicate rates may be high enough but its also a whisker away from being amped enough its all rain
  2. SnowGoose69
    LGA 74 JFK 54
  3. SnowGoose69
    Ptype wise the 12Z RGEM makes more sense...it more indicates the coast is rain but if this ends up as dynamic as the 12z NAM/RGEM show it could be decent snows even at the coast...both show roughly 36/28 spreads when the snow moves in...thats more than enough if you have steady precip this time of year to pile up outside of the pavement
  4. SnowGoose69
    There is a notable snow min 3/15-3/30 then a second peak 4/1-4/10...I don't know if thats purely by chance as we are only talking about a period of 130 years or it may be a factor of continued shortening wavelengths leading to better chance a system is not able to wrap up and go inland or along the coast in April leading to better chance of a favorable snow track
  5. SnowGoose69
    It was Sunday night 10pm-6am Monday AM. I got 7.5 in Nassau. Most places saw 6-10 I think on LI with 3-6 in Queens/NYC though the airports due to it being 32-33 measured low. I think models simply could not resolve how well the lower level cold air would advect in...it was like 48-50 degrees at 6pm. I recall clearly the 4pm update Upton dropped the WSW which was out entirely.
  6. SnowGoose69
    For some strange reason NYC has climatological holes in snow from 1/1-1/6 and also 3/19-3/27 or so despite having big events before and after that..I'll never figure that one out, especially the early April max
  7. SnowGoose69
    Basically NNE winds everywhere...as is usually the case with these with a high in that spot models wanted to turn winds too ENE
  8. SnowGoose69
    LOL SWF reporting SN IP. I don’t think IP has been the code for sleet since the 80s
  9. SnowGoose69
    Yeah this still needs to be watched from LGA on W-N...there are still indications on all guidance of surface winds backing somewhat to 050-070 after 09-10z...and typically they underestimate the degree of backing when they show that and it ends up more 030-050..if that happens places like NE NJ/NYC/N Queens/Bronx are going to have problems
  10. SnowGoose69
    I think everyone in this subforum is 5 inches or less for sure with the 5 near SWF and 1 or less near NYC
  11. SnowGoose69
    The SPC SREF as far as snow amount mean is something between the NAM/RGEM in the LHV and S CT...for FRZ RAIN its fairly ominous for the metro and has notably high confidence across all of WRN LI W-SW into CNJ and the metro
  12. SnowGoose69
    The SPC HREF mean sure seems to be something between the NAM and RGEM based on snow amounts...no doubt its indicating the Euro is probably out to lunch
  13. SnowGoose69
    The NAM now basically shows all frozen minus the tail end for NYC metro northern half
  14. SnowGoose69
    Honestly that one probably was a fail even in February, it was similar to December 9 1995 and January 17 94 in that the 850s barely went above 0C but surface flow was S'ly so that coastal areas torched while 5-10 miles inland was cold enough to stay all snow
  15. SnowGoose69
    December 05 was probably the biggest ever, 0 at JFK and 5=6 at LGA/NYC I think. 1/7/94 some far north points of the North Fork had 6-10 inches of snow while most of the remainder of LI was PL or FZRA. February 99 the N shore of Nassau back into Queens/NYC had a nasty ice storm maybe .25-.40 at 27-29 while the S shore was 35-37
  16. SnowGoose69
    SWFEs are truly gradient storms in that we have seen a place like Orient Point before get amounts closer to that of SNE because they are so far north...the line is almost always a straight north-south gradient.
  17. SnowGoose69
    The Euro always underdoes the warm nose in these events on the very SRN edge of the big snows it depicts. It seems to be almost a lock every time. I said earlier the zone from about midway between BDR-BDL on south has to be wary of snow totals being way overdone, this is all of coastal CT and the SRN Hudson Valley in my forum
  18. SnowGoose69
    The Euro usually over does snow on the S edge in these events. I've never fully understood why because it has a solid grid resolution but it typically misses the warm nose til the last minute. The RGEM is by far the best model if you ask me for ptype at the moment though it is likely too cold after 10Z Fri AM on the south edge
  19. SnowGoose69
    That is definitely one I have never head before...I was not aware nor am I sure that in this case surface warmth that far away has any real relevance to the mid levels 1000 miles way 36 hours later
  20. SnowGoose69
    That area from BDL-POU south to HPN-BDR is probably overdone on snow on most models...thats the corridor I feel where sleet will be more than expected probably athough BDL and POU themselves will do well its those places between where I just doubt anyone sees over 4-5 inches
  21. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I would be shocked in this setup if that happened unless we got a decent shift S of 30-40 miles from the overall consensus now
  22. SnowGoose69
    The NAM in this case has the track of all the lows way north of everything else. Sometimes it has more or less similar tracks to everything else and is more sleety/mixed...in those cases take it and run with it every time. It is definitely correct on the fact the metro starts as sleet...it may be PLSN for like 40 minutes but even the Euro now seems to be indicating the 5 boroughs area is 80% sleet as far as the frozen precip goes
  23. SnowGoose69
    That may be too cold....I do not think JFK/CNJ are seeing a full blown all frozen event or ice storm but certainly LGA/EWR/NYC may
  24. SnowGoose69
    When you consider the RGEM tends to be somewhat amped with low tracks at times past 30-36 and its still south of the NAM its highly likely the NAM is too far north. I cannot see BOS really seeing any sustained period of sleet with this and BDL honestly may not either
  25. SnowGoose69
    Its still insanely far north compared to everything else. I'd bet the house its likely wrong but you can toss any model showing long periods of snow at the coast...the NAM is likely way too early though flipping NE NJ/NYC to rain...I think its very possible those places never totally switch to RA
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