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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Yeah was coming to say this. Even the NAM was that way though at 84 the NAM is a mess anyway most times
  2. SnowGoose69
    Despite the change on the 18Z runs the ingredients for this are still in no man’s land. This was stated by someone on the SNE forum too. I think this will change about two times over in the next 36-48 hours. There is even a risk for this thing to be a rainer honestly given the setup but I’d still lean towards a miss being the more likely fail
  3. SnowGoose69
    IMO this is a classic setup the GFS would win. In La Nina years or any case where you have any heavy northern stream involvement or fast flow if its squashing a system it tends to be right. Its more often owned on Miller As or systems where you've got more southern stream action
  4. SnowGoose69
    I do know the NWS office reported they've begun to mix...I think the line may stall or even settle back SW soon. Not sure it'll make it to the immediate metro except the S side near the airport for awhile.
  5. SnowGoose69
    They'll still likely beat OU. Albeit, OU caught a huge break not getting MIA/ND. Those teams even vs their D would post 25-30 probably which would be too much for OU to overcome, Bama they might be able to defend their way out of it
  6. SnowGoose69
    The EPO sucks, the WPO continues to be good...as Don has posted in the main ENSO threat a few times, in those situations the WPO often wins out...may be why we are now seeing the fighting back and forth on ensembles. Would help if the AO/NAO were more negative though
  7. SnowGoose69
    There has been many cases in the last 2-3 winters where both the GEFS/EPS show a pattern at like D12-16 that seemingly not a single Op run over that few days ever shows, if anything its the reverse and then the Op idea verifies more 2 weeks later. Not sure why that would happen, it shouldn't but I have seen it more than you'd think is normal.
  8. SnowGoose69
    Both GEFS runs and the GEPS today seemed to get cold feet on the warmup after 300 hours, the EPS not as much
  9. SnowGoose69
    I am surprised nobody posted the 18Z GFS at 360
  10. SnowGoose69
    It’s hard to know now because ensembles suck with this pattern. When you look at many of the individual members on days 10-16 you can see they are actually quite cold in the east. We are getting skewing on many ensemble averages by some members that crank raging zonal patterns by trying to place the ridge all the way to the east coast. Probably need to see the WPO go positive in order to have this totally come off the rails
  11. SnowGoose69
    I think back a few days ago and ensembles had that ridge already slid across to the MA by 12/13. Look at 162 hours today its not even close. There is no doubt they've been way too warm beyond D8 for awhile now.
  12. SnowGoose69
    I always mention the April 2000 NY snow event where ALB went from 78 to 14 inches next day and it mostly fell from 8am-2pm too in mid April
  13. SnowGoose69
    I’d be surprised if there was any significant warmup in the east given the MJO wave strength. We’ve seen before beyond D8-10 ensembles often can show a pattern that doesn’t really resemble what the expected MJO phase will be and then once you get closer it does. We’ve seen many maps like the above at day 15 when we have a strong wave in 3 or 4 and we know it’s going to be wrong
  14. SnowGoose69
    Its just really a bunch of clippers
  15. SnowGoose69
    I feel like since 2010 just about every December down there has been warm minus 2020/2024
  16. SnowGoose69
    Down in the SE US Dec 2023 was not as warm as 2019. 2023 the warmth was worse across the Lakes/UW and NE
  17. SnowGoose69
    Compared to December 2015, 2021, 2019 its still an ice box though
  18. SnowGoose69
    There are some false rumors about the 80s on this board at time. NYC metro to a degree got unlucky but C-SNJ/LI/CT did decently well snow wise in those winters. There was just a snow hole in regards to the metro and N NJ somewhat. 88-89 was awful basically for the entire NE but there was just way more cold air minus winters like 82-83 and 88-89
  19. SnowGoose69
    I think the look has gone more suppressive for sure in the 12/6-12/12 period. I think after that the pattern could go active again but that period may be quiet across most of the country.
  20. SnowGoose69
    Its basically replacing the NAM in 2026. though last I heard the NAM may run for another year or so. Its much better than the HRRR it seems on ptype in winter events. The HRRR just is always too cold in the mid-levels. The biggest negative is no MOS data will be available which sucks as we will now have the GFS MOS and that is all.
  21. SnowGoose69
    Think this is pretty realistic though the RA/SN line may be a tad too close to the coast in Mass...not sure I see all snow on west side of downtown Boston. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025113018&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=ref1km_ptype&m=rrfs_a#
  22. SnowGoose69
    Next year the RRFS is supposed to replace it
  23. SnowGoose69
    Yeah not impressed with that one but there's a ton of moving pieces still
  24. SnowGoose69
    Might have put Putnam/Rockland in there but can always be added tomorrow
  25. SnowGoose69
    The Euro has nailed the last 2 events in the Upper Midwest, I'll say that much. But this is a totally different setup and area of the country.
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