SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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Oddly enough many of the daily records for today were fairly high....LGA's was 10. BDR's was 4 I think
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Nantucket likely broke their all time record low which was -3.
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Yeah January 82 also...core of air mass went down almost into the Gulf so places like Birmingham and Atlanta went below 0, same as 85...we've seen less of that the last 25 years for sure
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Its still pretty warm...its just not a shutout pattern...this is more of a 1980s or 90s bad pattern lol in that there may still be cold air to tap into if we time something correctly
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We got all the way down to 2 the night before as it was snowing the entire night. I think it was like a 30:1 ratio snow event
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It probably will fail to make it much into 8-1-2....as Don S said the other day in the NYC forum this is currently the strongest MJO of the winter but that said it does now appear that yet again the GEFS is gonna overestimate it and the EPS will be closer to reality, or even too strong itself...that has been the theme all winter really...moderate waves in 3-4-5-6 have been weak and weak waves into 8-1-2 were nonexistent basically.
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Yeah the core of the air mass went way too far NE but we also got hurt clearing out that day following the snow, we ended up getting to 17 in NYC I think and most guidance showed 12-15...had we only reached that we'd probably have done it...the 850s were only like -23C I think but with major snow cover across all of NY and areas to our N-NW we undercut what we probably normally would in that setup
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I always warn people and see people doing it on twitter posting the Euro/GFS SFC temp maps at like Day 4...in outbreaks like this I always use the 850s and go from there...my guess was 2 for NYC for a few days ago, despite the -27 or -28C 850 I felt the lack of snow cover might result in it being 2-3 degrees warmer than normal with those 850s..also I did not like the idea of a 310-320 win at 10kts late at night. That means you're probably already into neutral or warm advection and your best 850s have moved east.
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I think they have 2 issues...they do not have a great measuring spot and the spots they were choosing were bad...maybe they have recently found a better location. I think Denver airport ultimately does not measure on the grounds because of the fact the wind would just not allow for an ideal spot to measure. BOS is the same.
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JFK has always had measuring problems...the last 3 years or so they have improved alot because I believe they were told much like BOS/PHL/DTW/DEN airports they were going to have their measuring revoked and moved off the grounds to an observer. I still think there is a chance in the future that might happen because they've been consistently low for 30-40 years on measurements though better recently
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Ensembles have kicked the can somewhat the last few cycles...the 00Z GEFS in the D9-12 period showed no SE ridge whereas 5-6 runs earlier it was raging...I would not call the pattern the next 15 days a shutout pattern at all...something could definitely sneak up
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The liquid equivalent was .02 and it was down in the 20s so certainly possible they did get 0.4 though I'd think 0.3 is more likely
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It nailed this morning's activity last night but it was showing the same thing repeateadly
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Yeah the HRRR has pretty much jumped ship on this while everything else seems to be going the other way.
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Well lets just say if the HRRR is as correct tomorrow as it was today the snowless streak is going to fall just short of the record...the GFS FWIW has more snow tomorrow than the NAM does lol
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Another reason I am sort of leaning away from the top 5 snowless is the tendency in many years where a La Nina is collapsing and we are headed into an El Nino there have been significant late spring snow events...not always at the coast but it was nearly an automatic occurrence back in the 80s and 90s...I think one year maybe 1986 we had a May snow event inland
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MJO has underperformed all winter to a degree so I don't know...the weeklies have also suggested it may be cooler late February. I still am telling everyone hoping for the shutout that its probably not gonna happen. I am far from sold even top 5 snowless occurs because the storm track has been active. You add in tendency in recent years for juicy systems we could get 10 inches in one shot easily now.
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The MJO has seemingly underperformed on amplitude all winter so I'm far from sold the wave is strong enough to have any impact...the previous 3-4 years you could bank on the GEFS amplitude verifying, this winter the EPS amplitude has been veryifing for the most part or even slightly weaker
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The HRRR doubles down again at 18z....the look of the precip signature again appears to be something induced by the 250mb jet...the 18Z NAM now has a signal as well. There is gonna be a "screw zone" in all likelihood between the jet activity and the main system...we may really want the whole thing to shift 50-70 miles north
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One of the things many forgot this year is NYC likely did get measurable snow that day in December where EWR/LGA reported it, so this is somewhat of a bogus record
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The Euro still wants no part of it really...it would be quite the epic fail at this range even for it to miss a 1 inch snow event
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The Euro argues the 850s are cold enough at -28C. It probably comes down to timing issues...we ideally want the coldest air aloft in that 08-12Z period which we have but if the core of the coldest temps begin sliding NE we want the winds to drop off somewhat...15kts is not too bad, 15G25 would probably mix things enough that NYC if we lost the strongest CAA would not go below 0. The wind direction of 320-330 is fairly good
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I think that that event is probably dead because of the front running low over Quebec...it'll probably torch the mid levels or just manage to raise thicknesses enough that we would rain if that wave got far enough north
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This may be another case of 200-250 jet inducing an area of snow. The HRRR has sometimes done a good job of seeing these events 36-48 here when other guidance is all over the place or showing nothing. It won't be a big event but it probably has decent potential to break the snowless streak
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The 12Z HRRR now looks like the RGEM at 48...not anywhere near as north but basically worlds different than the NAM which at 12Z through 30 appears it won't bit yet
