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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    I think everyone but probably NYC east is under one, that may be due to fact nothing much has happened this year somewhat. But I think you may see Bronx and all NJ counties from Hudson west issued a WWA
  2. SnowGoose69
    Its a combo of confluence but also the CMC has a much more potent S/W over the Pac NW which might be not allowing the system to amplify as much over the Plains. the GFS is way weaker with that system over the NW
  3. SnowGoose69
    The system that crosses the MA and SNE area 90-108 hours is likely to have an impact on heights and subsequently this event...not sure models are not going to really see that for another 72 hours
  4. SnowGoose69
    The HRRR always misses mid level warmth beyond 12-18 or so. My concern here is the ESE flow, the fact the event comes in at 6pm vs 6am so you get all that solar heating through the clouds. You may be 42/22 at JFK when this begins easily and start as RASN before wet bulbing and going all snow. I think we need a really good shot at moderate snow in the first 2-3 hours otherwise it'll end up with 1-2 at best near the coast.
  5. SnowGoose69
    The system at 90-108 is absolutely going to have an impact on where this storm goes
  6. SnowGoose69
    Anything with WAA/overrunning mechanisms models will be all over the place...there will probably be a location somewhere that gets absolutely dumped on with a mesoscale band and if you look at the models its likely to be right at the beginning in the first 3 hours.
  7. SnowGoose69
    The NAM has really been bad this winter...really the RGEM/CMC has probably been the best model overall...at this range though both will generally not correctly see mid level warmth...you really have to be inside 30 hours before you have any good idea. I am not sure I see this is a system though with a monstrous area of WAA/sleet because its dampening to a degree as it approaches. I think you're more likely to just have a narrow 10-20 mile area of SNPL or PL somewhere in the transition zone
  8. SnowGoose69
    The front running system from 96-108 IMO is what makes it more likely a Euro type solution happens vs GFS
  9. SnowGoose69
    As forky said you don't want it to fizzle too much because you doubly can get screwed if it does...one you get less QPF but a weaker system causes more E-SE gradient. Right now you start SE but the dvlpmt of the sfc low to the SE of us kinks the gradient and it gets CAD like and we go from 090 to 030-050 and hold low level cold air in. A weaker approaching system basically wave trains the whole thing downstream and you'd be 34-35 with light snow.
  10. SnowGoose69
    Sort of but the ICON and GGEM made notable shifts north. Its simply too far out at this point though
  11. SnowGoose69
    Meanwhile everything is caving towards the GFS on the next storm lol
  12. SnowGoose69
    I wonder if in the end my area up into CT gets the worst middle finger imaginable in that the s/w continues to trend worse and inevitably the whole thing ticks north so even places like DXR end up just seeing paltry amounts of sleet
  13. SnowGoose69
    This may be the usual head fake south we see on these events at this range then immediately they go north again inside 48. The problem here though is the S/W is getting crappier and the blocking is becoming stronger. Its possible this is a legit change and probably why I'd be wary of hoping the next system does not end up like the ICON has being over North Carolina
  14. SnowGoose69
    Verbatim if you take a mix of the guidance this is as close to 12/2005 as you can get or maybe 1/3/03 where it may be 31 and snowing in Mt Vernon and 34 and rain or 32 and sleet in LGA...the storm setups are nothing alike but you can see even on the warmest setups the metro winds go 120-080-020 so its never gonna get above 33-34 probably even on central or eastern LI. This is automatically a rain event in December but here it may be hours on end of PLRA or PL...I definitely could see places like EWR or NYC being entirely sleet without a doubt.
  15. SnowGoose69
    Most likely...I still question if we do not even end top 5...it won't be hard to randomly get a 5 inch storm if the ensemble pattern verifies
  16. SnowGoose69
    I'm filing a disclaimer complaint with Upton if CPK/NYC gets 1 inch of sleet with this and then adds 1.5 or less elsewhere and we break the record lol....sleet normally counts as snow...well should I say OFFICIALLY does but in this case we should make an exception if it ruins the record
  17. SnowGoose69
    The 06z Euro is the closest thing to the NAM right now for tomorrow afternoon and evening
  18. SnowGoose69
    With shortening wavelengths I largely believe such a scenario like that which we saw in December will have a very hard time repeating itself in March
  19. SnowGoose69
    Its been on the snow train here for both 2/25 and 2/28 so far for sure
  20. SnowGoose69
    There are some Mets who are sorta on the reverse train like Rayo was in December telling everyone the event was gonna be an inland or Lakes event I have talked to several Mets in the last 24 hours and seen some on social media hyping that this thing is gonna be a NYC or Philly south event and we are gonna see all the models out of nowhere shift in the next 24-48 hours. I am not seeing it though.
  21. SnowGoose69
    That is a classic system where models will underestimate any overrunning til very late...the southern area is gonna miss but I'd watch inside 48 to see if suddenly we start seeing a widespread area of light snows from CNJ into SNE...the Euro has been showing it somewhat and the RGEM/NAM did last night before losing it today
  22. SnowGoose69
    I think the NATL side setup is fine but the issue is I cannot see anything to argue for the system ejecting from the SW and Plains to come out flatter or weaker through the Midwest and Lakes which is really what everyone south of 90 or even along it needs
  23. SnowGoose69
    In this case the airmass in place before might actually allow for a lengthy period of snow in areas which begin as snow in SNE. The wildly fast flip from SN to PL usually only happens in SWFE type events where you have a majorly stale airmass in place or one that is not that cold but in this case if you're in Worcester for example its established for awhile
  24. SnowGoose69
    I'd probably feel pretty good in ORH or BOS but way less so in BDL or PVD
  25. SnowGoose69
    If the high is more south it can work but that high is just way too far N and E IMO. Even then you still changeover but in this setup I'd be surprised if NYC did better than just some PL at the start of the event
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