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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    I tend to never trust any guidance in these scenarios where you don't have a setup like a 12/2005 where you see stupid gradients from say JFK to LGA....usually in these types of systems the gradient line sets up between Sandy Hook to SI/JFK or well NW of the metro...to see it on a storm of this setup be over top of the metro never really occurs though guidance sometimes tries to suggest it
  2. SnowGoose69
    the Euro was probably too far south but the RGEM being south of the NAM at this range probably means the Euro is not totally out to lunch.
  3. SnowGoose69
    There will be no issues with accumulation as of now, even for NYC. You have DPs on both the NAM/GFS at 12-18Z of 29-32 with winds of 010-040...that is easily going to be temps of 32 or even as low as 30 if the NAM is right and usually its thermals are better at the surface in these storms
  4. SnowGoose69
    They'll be under a WWA I think no matter what, a WSW I doubt would come til 3-4pm tomorrow, even if the Euro dropped more south they'd probably go upper end WWA which is 3-5 I think for the time being
  5. SnowGoose69
    I think Upton/Mt Holly might still be cautious, even if the Euro drops more S....might see them go like 2-4 or 3-5 in NYC for the time being or along that general latitude
  6. SnowGoose69
    The sun angle on 2/13 is not really a huge issue yet. It becomes more a problem early March...15-20 days does not seem like much but it really matters...much like its so easy to see an accumulating snow event on 12/5 but very hard to do it on 11/15. Not for same reasons but same idea how 2-3 weeks things change a ton
  7. SnowGoose69
    The MOS DPs look good to me, 28-29 on NAM, 32-33 on the GFS. I have always in dynamic scenarios averaged those two and as long as your wind is counterclockwise of 060 you'll accumulate down there
  8. SnowGoose69
    I'm not sure if once again in this storm models beyond today viewed that piece of energy dropping through MI/WI as in some way leading to more NRN stream phasing or interaction downstream, but in reality it ended up probably acting more as a kicking mechanism or maybe increasing the confluent impact.
  9. SnowGoose69
    When you consider the fact the SREF is too far NW like 90% of the time thats scary
  10. SnowGoose69
    The DPs on the 12Z GFS and NAM do look cold enough for snow in NYC if the rates are there but we are still a long way off
  11. SnowGoose69
    the 3KM nam typically is just not good beyond 30, maybe 36. I do not like looking at it for any meaningful purpose beyond that and the 12k NAM 48...even the RGEM til 30-36 can be spotty (as I said earlier I feel its tended to be too flat/cold the last 2 winters at this range very often). At this range the Euro/GFS idea with tracks of the surface/id levels is where I like to focus and tomorrow AM I would definitely begin really using the RGEM/NAM
  12. SnowGoose69
    I usually do not take it seriously until inside 30-36..same with the RGEM somewhat...the RGEM has had a bit of a cold/south bias on these events the last 2 winters til the last minute...might be the same thing again but we will have to see if the Euro stabilizes/moves south a bit today
  13. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM last 2 years seems to always be too cold until about 24-30 hours out then it goes 30 miles north with the warm nose or R/S line. I would not be surprised if we see the same thing again here but we'll have to see how the Euro sees things next 2-3 runs
  14. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM did not change a ton from 06z. It did however begin to see the mid-level warm nose more...it does show more pellets now in parts of the area for a time.
  15. SnowGoose69
    Inside 30-36 it definitely does when you're talking about mid-level warm nose stuff...sometimes beyond that in events where you're all snow or all rain with no concerns about mixed precip I have seen it sometimes capture banding ideas or track better than the 12K but it seems to be a crapshoot on that
  16. SnowGoose69
    I definitely felt 3 days ago they had a decent chance since I thought the confluence was just enough this might go 30-50 miles south of where the current average track is
  17. SnowGoose69
    3K usually sucks beyond 30 hours but that said it does tend to have a cold bias at that range in the MLs at times so the fact its somewhat torchy down there could be concerning but perhaps its just too amped with the mid level lows
  18. SnowGoose69
    3K is bad though, even for places like BDL for a time...that said the 3K does suck until inside 30, the 12K can usually begin to be reliable to a degree inside 48...I still doubt we'd see this dip south enough as far ML low track to see anything more than 1 inch near NYC...if this was moving slower its likely we'd actually be able to see something as everything crashed behind the departing low but its moving so darn fast that is not really realistic
  19. SnowGoose69
    In other news those inland probably can be less worried now as the RGEM seems to be catching on with its 18Z run
  20. SnowGoose69
    They are not that far off really. I think they might be aware N Westchester as well as N New London are not going to reach warning criteria in all likelihood but leaving those 2 counties out would be somewhat confusing to the general public.
  21. SnowGoose69
    Its going to struggle to go more than maybe another 30 miles off the EPS/Euro IMO. I do not think its going to go full NRN stream phase so its probably limited to maybe a 30 mile tick from the 12z Euro which is what I said yesterday, warning criteria southern edge at worst will go as far N as maybe 84. I'd still be surprised if those places did not see 5-7.
  22. SnowGoose69
    That watch is too far S and E IMO
  23. SnowGoose69
    This close in its rare to see them be that different than the Op but given how much the Op jumped they probably will be somewhat south of it
  24. SnowGoose69
    MJO trend all winter has been faster than both the EPS/GEFS...closer to the GEFS...if that happens its gonna be a long while til it goes into 3-4-5 or anything of that sort and there is a lag of course. I had said no pattern lasted more than 2 weeks all winter. I still expect we get a solid pattern 2/14-2/28 then it probably flips to something else but right now the ensembles may just be rushing the flip a week early
  25. SnowGoose69
    Even Rayo who I think is a tad too far north with this has the accumulating snow with this down to NE NJ/NYC/N LI.
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