SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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All models show some type of wave trying to generate in the Western Gulf there, that is such a suppressive pattern I'd be surprised if anything showed up consistently before D4-5 because most ensemble members and Op runs will want to squash the wave
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I thought they had 2.3 and 2.5 back in Dec/Jan 17-18
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Euro has like 2 inches of FZRA in Florida lol
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Some AMO periods have lasted 30-35 years I believe so its not surprising we are delayed. There were signs a few years back it was going to flip. I guess the WATL is colder this winter than recent years but we'd need to see a shift in summer months and not see well above normal SSTs
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Eventually the AMO will go negative again. Those typically lead to less snowy/drier winters even if its cold. Thats partly why the 80s were not terribly snowy, especially western parts of the metro. Many storms in the 80s favored SNE/Eastern LI
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Models definitely are overdoing the -PNA long range, they keep trying to have a run or two every few days where they really tank it down to -1 then the average goes back to neutral or positive. If the MJO wave weakens before it can strongly go through 3 and 4 its hard to believe we ever see this pattern shift, even in February which means sooner or later it'll snow but the 06z runs no doubt again have a look that favors the TN Valley/SE/MA more so
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Depends if they measure quickly enough when the flip begins, it can compact fast
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SNINCR 1/1 this hour so at least 0.5 or as much as 1.4 so far
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Will be close if they reach 1 inch, changeover line approaching fairly quick now.
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1/10-11 super awesome winter SE OBS thread
SnowGoose69 replied to strongwxnc's topic in Southeastern States
CC radar shows the FZRAPL line now moving towards ATL. FFC has gone over to PL now based on the VIS. Still ATL got more snow outta this than I think most models had other than the Euro -
Yeah web cams look like its all snow I-20 N and PLSN south of there. If you extrapolate the obs in AL and radar I think I-20 N might see a 2 hour period of decent snow. S of there probably no
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The ESE flow on almost all models may be enough that it just flips to rain in ATL. If they lay down a widespread area of 2 inches of sleet/snow though that might make it harder for the temp to climb over 32 as the gradient is not terribly strong. Many models show FZRA all aftn but the HRRR has not been buying it. The RGEM at 00Z moved towards the idea but mostly NE suburbs
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I think mainly sleet. I think N side will see snow for a couple of hours. Downtown area S likely starts as sleet and gets it hard for awhile
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NAM in essence is on its own for GA. RGEM/Hi res GFS/HRRR all look the same, as a whole this event is quicker than expected a day ago. It may be snowing into ATL and most of WRN N GA by 1030Z
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Well if the NAM is right this is the biggest bust ever for ATL. Rain by 14Z
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18z Euro verifying best by a wide margin on precip coverage right now. RGEM is not bad but its too dry, 12/3KM NAM horrific. They were both dry in Shreveport and most of NRN LA and WRN MS/SE AR. Even the high res 12Z GFS is okay as is the regular GFS.
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That may be why the 18Z run had a notable south shift over AL/GA with the WAA precip shield. We'll see if the 00Z continues to do that
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One reason the NAM may have been yanking this thing so far N on runs til 18Z today and also drier on the SRN periphery was it was trying to blow too much convection up in the WRN Gulf. The HREF TSTM probs were never high with this and there is little activity out there now
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the air mass in place there was lousy, it was like 01/M05 when the event started. Most areas in the SE/MA have a better air mass but it does indicate FZRA/PL will be a problem regardless
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Looking back at the 00Z NAM/RGEM last night they were just so bad on the current coverage of precip in SE AR/W MS/NRN LA at the 00Z hour tonight 24 hour forecast. Even the Euro was underdone but not as bad. This was the key area for whether parts of GA down by ATL would get smashed in the AM or not, this area needed to be there and it is. Finally the 3km NAM caught it on the 18Z run today too. Just hope its PL and not FZRA, it ain't gonna be snow
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Thats gotta be sleet
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If the NAM is right ATL should be fine, 4-5 hours of some nasty sleet and then likely over to RA. The ESE winds of 10-15kts should push them into the mid 30s
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RGEM not bad but its been ticking north over AL/GA with the WAA slug the last few runs.
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If anything the FV3 is south of the 12Z run through like 42 hours but I’ve never followed that model much to know how it performs
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The Euro doesn’t bomb often and it’s been real good this year but my memory is the one area it’s dropped a few major duds is on these pure southern branch systems like this
