SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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I guess they were too far south in January 92. There were some 6-8 inch amounts near FFC-MCN in that. I still think for biggest snows right now I’d want to be a hair north of them
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My money is that sucker is gonna tick north and it won’t happen. But some areas near PNS have had 3-4 before like 89/93. That storm is very similar and similar pattern to 1/27/14 which at this range was located same place and moved north gradually from there. Pattern doesn’t look as suppressive to me as 89/73
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It did well last week in the SE US event but it also was having to tick NW late for the final 24-36, it was just that the NAM was so bad most did not realize it. It may be having the same progressive bias down there again with this next one as its been ticking N now the last 2-3 runs
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I think they'll probably go advisories everywhere currently not in a watch, its possible the NJ county areas not currently in the watch and maybe SRN Westchester and SRN Fairfield could get 6 and reach warning but I would not be confident enough at the moment to have them in a warning. Western Passaic and Western Bergen should get 6, eastern maybe not. NYC has no bust potential on their western counties really, Mt Holly does if this comes east for sure.
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Its probably too early on the development of the snow shield over MS/AL. It may be correct as far as coverage over GA/SC. The EURO AI DID have that til the last 2-3 runs when its sort of lost it. Its why I said yesterday if you live in BHM/BNA/HSV/TUP you might be close to out of the game on this realistically but if you live in ATL/AHN you were still alive
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
SnowGoose69 replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
Didn't even get it then, climate report says a T that day, Pensacola I think had 2-3 inches. Dec 89 and Feb 58 are only snowfalls I can find, 2.4 in 1958 1.2 in 89 -
A big reason I'm tossing it is its totally botching the ensuing event down in the Deep South. I think either tonight or tomorrow the CMC finally caves on that one but the EURO AI now barely even gets precip into SRN AL/GA. To me, thats a strong sign the pattern is causing the CMC/RGEM problems and its likely to be impacting this system too
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The RGEM going flatter through 24-30 is a sign its moving towards everything else eventually IMO
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Used to know what the NAM indicated but not anymore, up til 6-7 years ago it always had an amped bias at 72-84 so if it was not grossly NW of everything else you knew where things stood but it underwent an upgrade in 2017 I think and since then that bias is gone
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The EURO AI looks about what I expect will happen here, it may come a tad north of that in the end but I stand by the idea the CMC is wrong and maybe even the GFS now is too north
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After the NAM's performance last event, even 12 hours out it should be banned from use for this storm
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The RGEM does have a bit of an amped bias past 48 but even if you account for that it still would be well west of everything else. You need a 100 mile shift more or less
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I'd give the RGEM no credit given the CMC's now no longer awesome performance on the 2nd storm but the ICON moving W gives me some belief maybe the RGEM gets weighted more than the Euro in the split difference in the end
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It caved to everything else on the other storm so I am not sure I am too confident about what its doing. It probably ends up close to a GFS/ICON idea in the end which is middle between Euro/RGEM
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God those are ballsy watch areas I have to say. If the EPS is even 50% right most of those are going to end up being dropped entirely.
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Makes no sense though based on GFS track, GFS has N'ly winds and a T/Td at EWR of 32/24 when snow moves in, would probably be down to 29 degrees pretty fast and never move from there
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Rare case where the #1 CIPS analog is a pretty darn close case...overall everyone from NYC to BOS was 2-5, there was definitely less of a surface reflection in this case though than this time https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1984/us0119.php
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Most of the CIPS analogs were light events, only one that is terribly close at 500 is 1/18-19/84 which was around 3-4 most of the area. Many were inland snow events, but way inland because the whole trof axis in the east was much further west than it is here. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1984/us0119.php
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The NAM totally sucked last week too with the storm in the south, not sure why its suddenly having such major issues, been awhile since I've seen it do this
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We are still far out buy the Euro still tends to be too low on QPF in my mind on any system that’s entraining Atlantic or Gulf moisture. It was the only model to accurately depict the snow in the MA two weeks ago because that was a rare case of a W-E moving storm where you weren’t entraining a ton of Atlantic moisture into it.
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yeah to me that event is close to dead as far as coming up the coast. I’ve been hitting the 73-89 drum on that for 3 days. Canadian may have nailed this one up here but it’s gonna bomb I think on its idea down there
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I think it’s getting late early for places in northern MS/AL. Not necessarily the same in GA/SC. I think ATL/GSP may still be alive albeit barely. This has potential to have a late movement up the coast still where those areas may get hit though I still think I’d rather be in Augusta or Columbia
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I still cannot believe how different the GFS is in the SE past 120 compared to every other model
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The GFS/GEFS difference for the storm on the Gulf Coast last 120 could be the craziest difference I’ve seen from the Op to an ensemble on a single model run inside day 7 ever
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I’ve wondered with Denver where the person who measures is at since there isn’t exactly anyone nearby as you said
