SnowGoose69

Yeah I’ve seen that writeup too. I’ve always said that 3/2/09 on a small scale was what was supposed to happen on 2/24/89 that didn’t. The two setups had big similarities at 500. They almost were as close to being identical type setups as February 83 and December 09 were. The NWS was also very slow to react too. The models (including the NGM) sort of started backing off the event for NYC and PHL as early as 12Z on the 23rd but it was a gradual back off to an extent. I think by 10pm on 2/23 when the 00Z runs came out most mets knew the forecast was in big trouble but they were reluctant to totally take things down. February 89 scarred many meteorologists to the extent I know of quite a few still working who aren’t exactly people with great memories but they recall well what happened with that event. I almost think I’ve come across more meteorologists who remember busting 89 than March 2001. I know someone posted here or another forum in recent years that a forecaster in the NYC or PHL office who worked the days leading up to the 89 storm was never the same after and was somewhat shy to take media calls afterwards and uneasy about dealing with winter storms.

The ICON was a nose SE as well

I know they definitely are more aggressive on the first event of the season. They'll put out advisories sometimes for events that are borderline and I've even seen them mention because its the first event of the season so it would not surprise me if they consider that

I definitely think the fact tomorrow is not a week day is playing into the decision a bit as well. I'm not sold they wouldn't have gone more aggressive on amounts if it was

The seasonal tendency may be scaring them from going big as well. Even this morning we are fighting more dry air here with the snow than I expected. It seems every event is having something go wrong in some way to minimize it so that may be in the back of their minds too

Upton appears to not be issuing any advisories at all either for CT

I would bet hard NYC doesn’t see big snow tonight. Most models showing too much of a warm nose 850-900. It’s not really even in the margin of error for it to hold isothermal. I do think it’s possible places like Bridgeport certainly could though

Yeah it makes zero sense though. You’re not getting an amped system like that on Sunday night behind this. The Euro will likely gradually tick flatter with that starting at 00Z

Just wait til the Isles light the Leafs and Tavares up 6-2 tonight

Because the ridge has been positioned too far west all winter so you’ve either gotten rainers or junk in fast Pacific flow that can’t amplify

ICON is a hit because of what it does with the first storm in New England. Need that storm to keep amping. The more amped the better chance for everyone from my area down into the MA on the next

Notice too how much flatter it came in on the next storm as a result

This system is going to continue moving NW much as the little system from NYC south did for tomorrow. As a result I fully expect Sunday night and Monday will slowly tick south as well. It’s not gonna be enough to save areas along the coast from BOS down to NYC totally from rain but they’ll all probably see their biggest snow of the winter Sunday night and Monday.

The Euro has a tendency to be overamped beyond 96 since it’s upgrade 4 or so years ago

I’ve noticed very few from there in the absence of obs threads during major events. Then everyone comes out of the woodwork. I remember being amazed during the December 2017 storm how many metro Atlanta posters I saw in the obs thread because I mostly see NC/SC in here when I’m looking

It looks anafontal to me. I don’t know how often anafrontal snow occurs there but I’m sure it’s not a common setup

As I posted earlier today the El Niño is really more a neutral so there really isn’t any massive southern stream action. The ensembles are showing a bunch of Miller B storms for the most part. With the cold presses though something may time out right down there

If you go by the CPC classification we are not in an El Niño at all. They’ve basically had it as neutral for 6 weeks now

Only reason it seems too warm is system is squashed and takes forever to finally come north from Florida. Had the system in Texas ejected out front 108 there’s plenty of cold air across LA/MS/AL/GA if it came across at 132-144 and you also don’t see the subsequent ridging happen if system kicks out. Basically the whole setup in the SE is different if the system ejects timely

Ensemble mean sure looks to eject it better though not perfect

System at 120 over OK/TX doing exactly what you want at this range. Getting buried and squashed. Fully believe that wouldn’t happen and that system would continuee moving E along the gulf coast

The GFS will squash southern waves like that at this range. It loves the northern stream and hates the southern stream. Taken literally based on the pattern the Op Euro is too far to the east with the track anyway. That system would probably track further west if it dug that much into the Gulf

The CMC thinking that precip is rain over AL and GA made me laugh

It looks too NW flowy to me for anyone south of the mountains to snow. I know last winter Atlanta got a NW flow snow event but the flow above 850 was mostly SW. I don’t see that on this setup shown

I remember being there for the January 2010 storm and we were about 1-2 hours away from disaster and repeating 2007. Thankfully right as we were nearing it we flipped to sleet and avoided another mess. I think we got about 3/4 inch of ice between about 10am-1pm before we went over to sleet. Got 6-7, inches of snow the next day which was mostly unforecast outside of Mike Morgan who either got lucky or saw something nobody else did