wdrag

Will start an OBS thread around 5pm. Sprinkles possible NJ PA portion of aubforum before 5p. Have a day. Walt

An event that by itself would probably not deserve a thread. Start time of the showers later today a little uncertain, in my mind. Follow radar and updated modeling. Rain tonight with isolated embedded heavy showers and gusty east winds to 45 mph in a few spots, especially coast. Periods of drizzle or showers Saturday with general totals by sundown Saturday of 3/4 to 2". IFFFF, the trough sharpens enough there will be a second surge of rain late Saturday or Saturday night that would add to the totals. So isolated 4" still not impossible somewhere in the NYC subforum, but not likely. Sunday, could be some residual drizzle or scattered showers with the weakening trough aloft, and lots of leftover clouds. A wind advisory and coastal flood advisory is posted for parts of the coast. Still need to monitor for renewed flooding in ne NJ later tonight or Saturday. Please monitor NWS products.

I like this climate compare post. What i also see in Nov data are the variable outcomes...many-many more neg departures than either Sept-Oct. Yet, as you note, confidence on whether we'll actually end up with a negative departure in Nov has to be minimal... just don't know, at least not using these data alone. The warming climate change in Sept, Oct, Dec,Jan, July is noted. Thank you.

I anticipate 1-3" of rain between 6PM Friday and midnight Saturday night in the forum, with most of it Friday night or Saturday morning, along with coastal easterly winds gusts of 40 kt and a period of minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding, especially the Saturday morning high tide as pressure continues to lower despite abating easterly inflo. Isolated 4". I anticipate renewed river-small stream flooding or reversal of any recessions in the subforum. Best chance for FF would be northeast NJ where 6 hourly rainfall of about 3/4-1" would I think prompt some sort of advisory-warning. So while volume will be less, due to shorter duration and lesser wind inflow, the stage was set with this early week storm. I have not thought much about severe at this time, but there is CAPE around this weekend, so Saturday afternoon-evening convection may also be of interest, especially with fairly strong winds aloft and a TT of near 50 currently modeled for late Saturday (northwest of I95?) .

Just for the record and not a separate thread yet: The operational GFS has been forecasting measurable accumulative snow to near I95 sometime between the 3rd and 8th of November for the following cycles. 18z/23, 00z and 06z/25, 12z/26 and now 18z/27. Am monitoring for a possible thread occurrence between the 5th and 8th but no confidence yet.

I've no skill in LR forecasting but the late start to the FALL frost-freeze season, NAEFS, and modeling through the 10th suggests we should be closer to normal this November than the positive departure we'll end up with in October. So when will the first snow accumulate I95 northwestward, then in NYC? Can we muster one more tropical RH contributor to the NYC subforum? Edited body at 742AM-Nov 2, to add the October 2021 CP +4.1F departure from normal, to use as comparison for NOV 2021 departure from normal.

OBS and nowcast 9PM tonight-8A Wednesday for a general 2-5" rain, isolated 8" possible. 40-60 kt damaging wind likely Tuesday-early Wednesday. Focus for damaging wind and heaviest rain is the I95 corridor to the coasts. Power outages esp CT LI. Reviewing Sundays 24th thread above: I didn't see 8" but overall I think the combined efforts here-in had a pretty accurate short fuse accounting of what would happen, in advance. Power outages were more in the forested areas north of I95 but I think we can agree the eastern tip of LI had near 70 Mph gusts. The extent of advisory/warning level winds was less than modeled. Max rainfall around 6.5". When the Delaware goes into flood from where it was, (a short fuse rise of 15 feet!!!) that tells you that it was a good thing the we were dry for 2+ weeks in advance of this event. I think aside from accurate SPC HREF, the EPS 5" coverage area was very good...better than the GEFS and imo, it also handled the intensity of the 85MB ne jet across New England much better. I'm pretty much done with this thread... thanks to all the contributors and critiques. The EDD comment this morning triggered my learning of this program from a long time met friend in CT and you'll in the future see imagery of reality max gusts.

OKX has just published LSR winds of 62-70 MPH from near Groton to e LI.

Prelim wrap on qpf... CoCoRaHs TWO DAY totals maps below. Click to enlarge. My 4.73 in Wantage NJ (8s High Point) looks pretty good. Walpack 5.02 and Vernon 5.04 via NJWXNET.

Adding WPC Excessive as a D3 starter.

Excellent post... will await the finals on wind later this morning tho I may not be posting between 1035AM and 430PM.

Sampling of max wind gusts past 3 hours at NWS/FAA sites... ending 1245Z. Note some places have 50 kt gusts and also lesser 40 knot. Does not include Buoys/weatherflow marine sites. 50kt + KACK: Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA, United States [58kt, 30m/s] KBID: Block Island, Block Island State Airport, RI, United States [55kt, 28m/s] KBOS: Boston, Logan Intl Arpt, MA, United States [51kt, 26m/s] KC99: UNKNOWN, [51kt, 26m/s] KCTB: Cut Bank, Cut Bank Municipal Airport, MT, United States [51kt, 26m/s] KFMH: Otis ANG Base, MA, United States [58kt, 30m/s] KGHG: Marshfield, MA, United States [52kt, 27m/s] KHYA: Hyannis, MA, United States [53kt, 27m/s] KMLC: McAlester, McAlester Regional Airport, OK, United States [55kt, 28m/s] KPVD: Providence, RI, United States [53kt, 27m/s] KUUU: Newport, Newport State Airport, RI, United States [54kt, 28m/s] 63 stations reporting wind gusts 40-49kt CWBV: Beaven Island, N. S., Canada [46kt, 24m/s] CWER: Ile D'Orleans, Canada [46kt, 24m/s] CWJU: Langara, B. C., Canada [40kt, 21m/s] CWSA: Sable Island, N. S., Canada [42kt, 22m/s] CWVU: Brier Island, N. S., Canada [43kt, 22m/s] CWZV: Cape Saint James, BC, Canada [49kt, 25m/s] EHDV: D15-FA-1 Oil Platform, Netherlands [44kt, 23m/s] ENEV: Evenes, Norway [41kt, 21m/s] ENHE: Heidrun, Norway [42kt, 22m/s] FAPE: Port Elizabeth, South Africa [41kt, 21m/s] K1AM: Alpha (raynesford), MT, United States [42kt, 22m/s] K3K3: Syracuse, KS, United States [40kt, 21m/s] K7BM: Cottonwood Pass, CO, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KAUS: Austin, Austin-Bergstrom Intl Arpt, TX, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KBAZ: New Braunfels, TX, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KBID: Block Island, Block Island State Airport, RI, United States [49kt, 25m/s] KBMQ: Burnet, Burnet Municipal Craddock Field, TX, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KBOS: Boston, Logan Intl Arpt, MA, United States [49kt, 25m/s] KBVY: Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KC99: UNKNOWN, [48kt, 25m/s] KCAO: Clayton, Clayton Municipal Airpark, NM, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KCCU: Copper Mountain, Red Cliff Pass, CO, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KCQC: Clines Corners, NM, United States [49kt, 25m/s] KCQX: Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA, United States [48kt, 25m/s] KCTB: Cut Bank, Cut Bank Municipal Airport, MT, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KDFW: Dallas / Fort Worth, TX, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KDHT: Dalhart, Dalhart Municipal Airport, TX, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KEWB: New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KFOK: Westhampton Beach, NY, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KGCK: Garden City, Garden City Regional Airport, KS, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KGDP: Guadalupe Mtns. Natl Park, TX, United States [48kt, 25m/s] KGHG: Marshfield, MA, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KGON: Groton/New London, CT, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KGRK: Fort Hood / Gray U. S. Army Airfield, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KHVN: New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KHYA: Hyannis, MA, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KISP: Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KITR: Burlington, Carson County Airport, CO, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KLAA: Lamar, Lamar Municipal Airport, CO, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KMCK: McCook, McCook Municipal Airport, NE, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMHT: Manchester, Manchester Airport, NH, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMIC: Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMTP: Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KOQU: N. Kingston / Quonset, RI, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KOWD: Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KOXC: Oxford, CT, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KPVD: Providence, RI, United States [49kt, 25m/s] KRKD: Rockland / Knox, ME, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KRWV: Caldwell, TX, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KRYW: Lago Vista-Allen, TX, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KSAT: San Antonio, TX, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KSFZ: Pawtucket, RI, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KSPD: Springfield, Comanche National Grassland, CO, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KSRR: Ruidoso Regional, NM, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KTAN: Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KTQK: Scott City, KS, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KUUU: Newport, Newport State Airport, RI, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KWST: Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

Power outages and wind problems spread into our area. Good luck with this... note almost 1.2 mile without power in MA (thats 2.5x the number of meters out which you see attached.

Wantage NJ final 4.73". We'll see how much higher this is against nearby stations and whether indeed there is a high bias in heavy rain. Right now, I think my report is going to be pretty close to the reality. Monitor the river flooding... a bit interesting.

Fri afternoon-Saturday night: expect 1-3" of rain, iso 4" possible. FFG will be a lot lower so FF potential exists NNJ-se NYS. Any ongoing river flooding recessions this week will reverse with some rises in NJ/e PA/se NYS Fri night-Saturday because of the renewed rainfall-runoff. Wind in NJ coast may be higher than this mornings, by about 15 knots (easterly gusts 35-40 knots). Also coastal flood threat is a bit larger tho biggest inflow seems at low tide Fri eve. NYC which had 3.66" in this storm (less than I expected), should end up with 4.7"+ this week and monthly totals over 5.2", possible higher. Lots tbd, so lets get some 2 day precip summaries posted at 10am, as well as max winds/power outages. I'll add more to part two of this thread and a quick summary of part one, late today.

979MB low or lower passing just to the s of Nantucket now. Outages continue coming up in RI/MA and soon I think we'll see some increases e CT and LI.

Winds now coming up... gusts to around 40 kt parts of LI. Power outages not... so far. HRRR may be overdone a bit? Expect the worst wind risk done by 9 or 10A. many gusts 60 MPH in se MA where over 200,000 meters out and RI is nearing 10000 meters out.

MA now up to 10,000 meters without power. so Minor power outages responding to 40-44kt gusts Boston to parts of CC now. Am unsure how extensive power outs will be in CT/Li but staying with the forecast as presented earlier.

What I just wrote a special group of friends I84 corridor PA-BOS. Doesn't mean it's right but for anyone in there unaware, I think it's a useful heads up. Probably offline til 5P: then driving an ambulance overnight so may not be able to post overnight, if am on a call. Good Tuesday morning (Oct 26, 2021) everyone in CT-BOS. Some are aware that there will are no power tomorrow morning as wind gusts 50-70 MPH lash that region overnight tonight, for a 2-6 hour period, particularly 11PM-7AM. Be prepared. The heaviest rain of 3.5-6" is down here in NNJ/se NYS and far ne PA. Winds there should gust 45 mph at times, taking out branches and uprooting a few ground sodden trees w scattered power outages likely. The worst CT/e MA/LI later tonight. Also, be alert for possible flooding of vulnerable small streams/basements the next day or so entire I84 corridor and also late Friday when another significant event arrives, tho less potent than todays. However, with saturated ground, the flood potential may be slightly elevated from todays.

Updated title for damaging wind likely, strongest near sunrise Wed. This is a big one. Already 4-5" in parts of NJ and another 0.5-1.5" coming north of I78 in NJ thru sunrise Wed. Holding out for lower wind I do not think is prudent in the face of some of the short range guidance repeatedly stating 45-70 MPH gusts (HRRR/HRRRX and 3K NAM). I could be wrong---not privy to all NWS guidance-analysis but rather not err on the low side. If everyone wakes up with power tomorrow...that's a plus.

I agree, maybe few G45 MPH around 5A... b ut also at 11A when a quick 70KT speed max at 850MB rolls westward. BDR now gusting 38 kt.

I think the 12z 3K NAM and 12z HRRR/HRRRX will ice it for whether damaging wind occurs as now outlooked by HRRR/HRRRX, 3K NAM for CT/e LI.

storm centered near JFK at this time. NLY wind gusts 30KT up in Kingston.

Here are some 4+" amounts...remember, some of these reported at 6A, others at 830A...makes a big difference. All smooths out tomorrow morning when we do the two day. No SVR occurred last night in our area. However, NWS PHI now has two rivers in NJ forecast to moderate FS and many reports of rescues, and further reports 4+".

Looking for 4 consec months. We are now, 10+ 3 consec months in NYC. NYC now as of 8AM 2.92" monthly seemingly heading for 5 by the time this is done (i think-maybe am too high?). 1.8" past 6 hrs. Wantage now at 3.57" for the storm. STP's from DIX especially too low per earlier CoCoRaHs match. So my rainfall might be a tad high but wxunderground has lots of support here in nw NJ.