wdrag

Added 12z/26 Blend of models rainfall, the WPC 22z/26 three day rainfall forecast, and a sample from the 18z/26 HRRRX ending 18z/Thursday, which in my mind shows the potential narrow axis of 2-3"+ of rain. If that ends up over the Passaic River Basin, then minor flooding would resume on parts of the Passaic. We'll have to wait for reality to know what will result. There should be an axis of 2-3" rainfall near I95 and it could result in moderate impact for travel Thursday morning. This in addition to the overnight-Wednesday morning dense fog impact will mean some difficulties for air and surface travel. An additional 0.2-0.6" could fall in the NYC subforum 1P Thu-7P Friday with bands of rain/drizzle in the convergent surface trough region west from the departing low pressure system off New England, and to the north of the weakening upper low moving eastward off the mid-Alantic coast. If 2 inches occurs in Central Park by Friday night, that would push December into the top 5 rainfall (7.12"), and the year to #11 (59.23"). Central Park rainfall seems to have a pretty good chance of exceeding 1.5" but there is always uncertainty on qpf. So, another significant rain event is on the way. The 48 hour qpf from the SPC HREF, HRRR, RRFS from 00z/27 and 12z/27 cycles could be helpful perspectives if and where the potential exists for 3" of rain from this event. This thread headline and/or tags may update if the NWS issues flood watches.

I will begin a thread sometime between 8P and Mid for a widespread 1.25-3" rainfall event 1Pm Wed-1P Thursday, isolated 4" possible ne NJ/se NYS/s CT. Just want to see a little more data. I'll add a couple graphics. Most of the rain in a 12 hour period 9P Wed-9A Thu. This would result in a few small streams going into flood by Thursday afternoon, depending on location. Probably another 0.1-0.6" between 1P Thu and 7P Fri in periodic-areas of drizzle/rain.

Not posting a thread yet, for one primary reason... not sure yet if I want to do this as a 24 or 72 hour event, first 24 hours most important but the secondary rainfall Thu-Fri might be the straw that pushes minor flood for many streams in NNJ-e PA. For now I expect 1-3" of rain Wed-Fri, with at least several rivers going minor or possibly moderate e PA/NNJ into se NYS. Slow moving upper Low. Turns cold enough of possible back side ice or snow parts of the I84 corridor Friday afternoon-early Sat. Just not enough model cues to push a routine into a worthy thread. This is not the storm of 9 days ago. adding on 658AM. Wii look again this evening as time allows, but pretty sure will thread this evening. HRRR-SPC HREF and NWS Flood Watch combo of considerations for the what I think is a 60-70% chc of starting the water related flood potential thread.

Monitoring for a headline thread of flooding again for Wed-Thu 27-28, maybe topping off I84 with some snow late Friday-Sat. Still thinking 0.75-2" entire area by the time it quits for a while late Thursday. Of interest to me is potential for 4+" of rain portions of western NC by Wednesday morning which may translate newd. Probably not as serious as a week ago but am pretty sure a few rivers including a couple mainstems in NJ will go back into minor flood, if not moderate flood This event, seems to favor interior NJ/NY/e PA and along and west of I95. Small wet snow accumulation late Friday-early Sat for MA/NCT? All needing further consideration before wasting anyones time. Wish there were more wintry to focus upon. I guess patience is my best approach.

squinting!! hoping...

That little band of scattered radar returns in ne PA/nw NJ/se NYS is ice pellets. mPing has had some reports as well. EC was the only model to pick up on the spotty wintry early today, but only one cycle..I think it was the 00z/22 cycle.

Not threading anything for the 27th-29th. Ensembles offer NYC subforum around 1" of rain, give or take. River rises occur but generally within bank, except those that went to major a few days ago...those would rise back to minor flooding IF that rainfall occurs. Think it best to wait this out.

Can the pattern adjust enough to permit near normal snowfall for the NYC subforum In January, at least for the interior (10-15")? Have added some statistical information regarding the potential ahead including that note from Bluewave. We do sort of know that temps are going to cool down closer to normal the first week of January. Beyond the 2 week lead time of this initial Dec 23 thread starter, that's where our long rangers add further discussion. Verification added Feb 2 for Jan. You decide for yourselves the utility of the monthly. Temp looked a little shaky MT to Lower Miss Valley. The rain was shifted west and obliterated the outlook for lower Ohio Valley. Interior I think did get near or above normal snowfall for Jan (Wantage NJ 19") but NYC CP the 2.3" was 6.5" below normal. Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 2 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Dates Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2023-12-21 1 691 2022-01-30 through 2023-12-21 2 685 1972-02-24 through 1974-01-08 3 521 1918-04-13 through 1919-09-15 4 416 1912-12-25 through 1914-02-13 5 406 1997-02-09 through 1998-03-21 6 386 1991-02-27 through 1992-03-18 - 386 1954-01-12 through 1955-02-01 8 385 1931-11-28 through 1932-12-16 9 377 1971-01-25 through 1972-02-05 10 366 2006-02-13 through 2007-02-1

Slight heads up Poconos---interior se NYS and extreme nw NJ: Scattered sprinkles of freezing rain or sleet are possible prior to 9AM. If it occurs, it would cause icy spots. Caution--especially Poconos. 442A/23

If is ok... will start Jan thread tomorrow morning 8A. Long day here. Always hope in the future... just not obvious to me about big snow, except it gets cooler first week Jan. Walt

Good Friday morning everyone, Other than spotty icing I84 corridor Saturday night, am not excited enough to begin a thread for Dec 27-29. Will monitor. I can to start the January thread sometime tonight... when I get some home downtime. Have a day.

I have no plans to thread Dec 27th-29th til it shows more consensus on flooding hazards, if it does. Complicated and I doubt the GGEM miss to our south. However, how and when the 3/4-2" qpf occurs is less certain for me. Also tail end transitions to some sort of snow or flurries possible the 29th?, at least for parts of I84. In the shorter term: I84 corridor Sat night-Sunday morning the 24th: a "possible" period of mixed rain-wintry precip with potential slippery (untreated) pavements above 1000 feet?? I'd like to fire up the January thread Friday evening sometime... conservative approach on its presentation.

Might rain a little Christmas Eve?

Minor spotty amounts snow/sleet/freezing rain (hazard) potential for the I84 higher terrain this Saturday night. EC/NAM/RGEM and even globals GFS/GGEM have it with rain edge down to NYC. Might even slip further south with the sewd moving short wave. 27th-29th... for sure one wet event 27th, but sort of complicated since GEFS and GEPS drag their feet with the primary 5H trough and show 24 hour qpf here on the 29th. the qpf could end up spread out more than the idea of one event only on the 27th. Keeping options open on ptype I84.

It wasn't much but definitely parts of the Poconos/nw Nj had a little dusting of snow Tuesday morning and it was definitely less than I expected. Not adding the video but borrowing Tatamy post. Also added the CoCoRaHs totals (click the image for clarity). Major flooding has occurred in parts of NNJ.

Good Wednesday morning American Weather participants! It is Dec 20. Not starting a thread yet for Dec 27-29 which should include a soaking rain (27th) of 3/4-2", and maybe a touch of snow (29ish?). Want to see how this evolves and see if it's worth a thread. Adding some closing data to the past storm thread. Make this a good day despite the least snow extent in North America the past 20 years (nice previous post on this). We should eventually need snow sticks for the driveway, shovels for the walk and I hope snow blowers can handle the wet snow on the driveway. I put my faith in that something has to happen in the El Niño pattern once January rolls around.

I thought Blend of Models did well once it latched onto the bigger amounts within 48 hours. Also handled wind gust very well in our area.

Here's a few maps of climate station data and power outages as of about 945A. We'll take a look at river reality with the 4PM hydro maps. Sometimes the predictions are in error. Just follow local official advice.

Will try and post some area maps of rainfall and max gusts but basically 4-5" Morris and Passaic counties so far with 4+ northward on the NYS side of the NJ/NY border and also 4+ near Tannersville. 230,000 meters out in the Northeast USA with 50,000+ each NYS and NJ, 75,000 CT (a state whose electric infrastructure seems vulnerable) and MA coming up 44K. 2.5 times those numbers for the people affected. Some of our normal posters may not have power and can't post. I would say, safe to say half a million people without power at 8A. Be smart this morning traveling and watch for ice tomorrow morning over the interior where residual runoff continues.

NJ 41, 000 meters without power, NYS 26,000. other increasing. That's 67,000 there at 520AM... equivalent to about 150,000 people without power.

Good morning... Big rains all done Noon-3PM southwest to northeast with the bulk in the books by 8AM. Already over 4" north central Morris County NJ. Flooding as experienced now (5AM) on the roads with small stream rapidly rising now and many in the interior going into minor flood as per NWS monitoring systems. A few moderates predicted. Monitor official info if you're near those streams/rivers. Wind: looks like the max near 60 MPH in our NYC subforum should have completed by 10AM, but the back side westerly wind will still be pretty strong in the 35-45 MPH mid afternoon. Catskills might see a sleet/rain mix at the tail end around 2P. The period of snow/flurries looks to be on for the Poconos-NW NJ, interior se NYS to Litchfield County between 1AM and 7AM Tuesday with untreated surfaces slippery, in part because of residual runoff iciing, and in part because of a 0.1 to 1" new very minor snowfall. Flurries could be seen elsewhere in our NYC subforum around sunrise but no accum I95. That's my best shot... will add some real time data if it looks important but might not be too much more.... stay on top of everything and post as needed.

Max wind reports (KNOTS) in various categories past 3 hours ending 430AM, 24 hour qpf on the NJ and NYS mesonets and max wind NYS this morning (MPH)... seeing upper 50s NYC area and NJ (not posted) is in the low-mid 50s on parts of the coast... Power outages significant so far, but unexpectedly for me, interior NNJ and interior se NYS, so far.

Of interest. Blend Of Models (19z version) seems to be doing well eastern NC shore at 00z... if it holds...max gusts per BOM for LI 60-65 MPH tomorrow morning. I havent recently studied the details of the modeling wind downward transfer-instability.

26,000 meters without power in the Carolinas now... that's about 55,000 people. 0.21 in the part of Wantage. 1/3rd inch western SC and near 0.4 parts of the e slopes of the Catskills. Good start. Thanks for the MT Holly post on the expected flooding. I checked OKX/BOX output..similar. Seems a little conservative on moderate, iso major but they have the data and based on their input rainfall/6 hours and past rainfall antecedent. We go with NWS as a good start.

Yes... HREF finally picking it up. Looks to me like Ensembles River response should be accurate NNJ, w Ct/W MA (Ct River etc) as well as Catskills. Those browns are 7". Always doubt til we get reality amounts, the downslope bands but we should know by sunrise tomorrow what bin the the results will be (minor, moderate or spotty major?) Definitely a concern I95 northwestward entire NYC subforum. Just have to wait.