wdrag

Unsure... What I do know is that the big stuff tends to turn right (south) of modeled (along 1000-500mb thick), because it wants instability-heat to drive it. so for me, Its between BGM-POU-GON south to I195 (TTN) on Saturday.... I'd go w local NWS experts including SPC discussion info, and high resolution CAMS models (if you can get access to them). I prefer no convection NYC metro 1330z-220z to get this to work to its potential. 850 winds are pretty strong. May post mid afternoon? Later, Walt

Good Friday morning everyone, You've seen the D2 from SPC issued earlier this morning. Convective debris (leftover) in the morning may minimize potential, but for now... I think a potentially substantial outbreak of SVR, especially near I80 in n PA/extreme s NYS with a possible bookend vortex crossing NYC area (IF---and only IF it's maintained in future NAM/HRRR modeling through the 12z/27 cycle. I'm viewing this as a two thunderstorm episode day, one early near 12z/27, the other as per GFS/NAM modeling for 22zish. The 06z/26 HRRR has the 12z/27 nicely suggested for our area but I'm hoping the 17z/27 band is wrong (too fast). The HRRR agrees more with the EC. Myself, in heavy convection, I favor the GFS-HRRR. For mariners, the SPC HREF ens MAX gust is provocative and not sure it can verify? It has the strongest wind in the entire ne USA over eastern LI and adjacent LI waters between 22z/27 and 00z/28. Cold water makes me wonder but what it suggests to me, all of LI is in the mix for a svr episode late Saturday, provided the event occurs after 21z with no convection between 14z-21z over LI. 647A EDT/26

We'll see how it goes: They have increased their D2 with "enhanced" risk over MI. I could see one band of marginal dying svr scraping NNJ-NYC/CT around 12z, then it heats up to 90-95 at 4P, refires in the late afternoon. It sort of looks like a dual thunderstorm episode day to me. Convective debris-timing will make some difference in results. Pretty clear to me that the wind fields will be there, and that there is strong WAA, strong instability advection with late day sfc based Cape 1000-2000J all along I80. Sometimes the Cape is there because of previous convection which can make the Cape misleading. So, in my mind, as of 20z/25... my concern is whether the primary convective band is midday Saturday, or do we have sort of a wfrontal strong convective band at 12z/27, then a developing line of severe nearly overhead late in the day-eve? Don't know, but I think it's worth keeping an eye on. (i never like it when the back edge of the svr risk is shifted into our area... I always like it better when the final big band of thunderstorms has developed upstream and rolls into better instability over our area. Unknowns for me, especially not with tools that I used to have in NWS. Just dont know for sure what will happen but I think its worth the heads up to witness the evolution, good or bad.

Good Wednesday morning everyone, Unsure whether this will happen but mass field signals seem to me to flag potential for one or two bands of svr storms racing east in strong low level WAA (and moist too-CAPE, and KI modeled going way up). Early max gust signal of 40+ knot in the EC for 5 consecutive cycles upstate NY and far northwest PA toward 00z/Sunday the 27th. So, I'll just wait this out... see what happens (see if EC is too robust?). 00z/24 GEFS and EPS similar on wind fields 850, 500mb. You're welcome to add on and I'll post the SPC SVR reports image, Sunday the 27th, after 12z. It's possible the heat here on Saturday (90-95F non marine influenced) could be minimized if the storms arrive too soon, but my guess, per modeling seen early this Wednesday June 24, is that the SVR event would occur (IF??) in our area between 6P Saturday and 4A Sunday. If you wish to see any graphics I've referenced, let me know. I may not reply immediately.

Wantage NJ 0.2" so far at 1145P May 8 on top of 0.70" rainfall. 33F. Down from 43F at 830P. Seasonal total 20.7"

Hi! Prob for 1" run by NWS ensemble at 2029z/6 seems a little low on the prob for 1" by 18z Saturday. Reflects the diversity of solutions and difficulty accumulating snow after late Friday afternoon temps in the 40s as well as short duration of decent Fri night snow or in NYC (mixed R/S?). Pretty sure widespread flurries Saturday morning and gusts 40-50MPH Saturday midday-afternoon,. Will check back early Thursday.

Wantage: 0.1" slushy snow on all surfaces except pavement wet at 35F. Snow/rain began around 430, all rain by 545P, back to snow at 8P. Still snowing 1020P.

Wantage NJ 0.2" of hard packed snow on all surfaces except pavement...~3A-4A. 34F. 528A/10

Wantage NJ 0.2" of hard packed snow on all surfaces except pavement...~3A-4A. 34F. Season 20.4 525A/10

Wantage NJ 636PM about 1 min of pea sized hail mixed with rain. 48F. Now just rain with clearing west. Walt 641P EDT/30. Was mPing'd

So, here's a little mapping of yesterdays snow-sleet totals. I've also included an example of EPS prob off 3+" and NWS prob of 1+" from around 08z/23. It is obvious to me the NWS ensemble was much more conservative in PA/NJ, but did not perform very well in NYS/New England which you could also see in the actual ensemble forecasts (not shown here). EPS/EC op failure on the southern edge (too robust) may be related to how it handles sleet conversion to snow depth (10 to 1). NWS probabilistic ensemble may suffer from a problem I've been seeing regarding the GFS determining rain vs snow... I think the GFS is a little weak on determining the approximate rain-snow line. I saw this clearly a month ago in a midwest system and it occurred again yesterday. No modeling to my knowledge handled the rain back to sleet in ne PA/nw NJ late afternoon- that little surprise I can live with. The first two reality check maps are the best I can do in a hurry to fill in some actual data. The latter two, the EPS prob of 3+, 85% and greater did very well! The NWS ensemble for 1+ inch produced ~ 08z/23 didn't do too well. These are the issues that need to be dealt with in briefing folks. Finally, the complex problems of merging data sets-in a hurry I might add- in the operational setting. The last image was the snowfall forecast issued "Sunday" morning 09z/22. Not too shabby---overdone a little here and there on the southern edge, but convert the sleet to snow and you've got the numbers. Effectively, this NWS operational map which we all use for point-click output, was a pretty good effort. Good work there, imo. 1517z/24

Wantage NJ. Rain back to light-moderate sleet around 450P...some sticking to pavement. 33.8F 509P/23.

Wantage NJ...8sv High Point. Probable final. All rain now w just a few ice pellets at times. 0.4 snow sleet comprised of 0.2 snow and 0.2 sleet. 33.1 slushy underfoot on home pavement due to recent sleet accumulation. First measurable wintry stuff since 2/14-Valentines Day. Seasonal total 20.0. 128P/23.

Wantage NJ...variable intensity IP... 0.3" snow sleet total so far. 33.3F Home pavements now slippery except where treated. Not sure about the roads-not traveling. Today, seems like a good example of where sleet largely diminishes snow totals in the modeling.

NWS ensemble blend prob for more than 1" now forward... not very high probs nw NJ/ne PA HFD, even ORH. Has me concerned The probs were generated at 0822z/23. Walt

Might need to use more conservative Ferrier or Total positive snowfall in this mixed page process after 17z. I'm hoping the 10 to 1 you pasted is right but doubt very much. I will post NWDS prob 1+" 12z today-12z Tuesday...remarkably low.

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point is 31F with 0.2" as of 740A. Larger flake flurries in progress at 808AM despite radar showing nothing overhead. mPing reports from vicinity Sussex are mine. Think someone else northeast of me in Sussex County also mPing. First measurable since Feb 14.

60-61 was quite a winter as well. Weatherwise writings on the ~3 big ones, got me fully committed for a weather career. The first one in early Dec 60 was a Sunday snow storm for both Washington and New York pro football games with plows clearing the 10 yard markers, I think in DC.

I know 77-78 was famous for 3 storms in Jan, 20, 26-Feb 7-8 included an Appalachian rim extremely intense storm that buried the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and no doubt it was a fabulous winter. Still 76-77 was special for its cold and frequent snows with the patterns as described previously. One might easily forget the May 9, 1977 snow storm in the interior that was quite special for heavy wet snow, tree damage and impact, especially Massachusetts. I wasn't there but the period of Jan 21-Feb 22, 2015 had to be quite special in New England with Bostons 94" and persistent cold. That's what I want to see return down here near 40N, one of these DJF winters.

I've posted this not to defend against other winters for NYC or elsewhere, but to reshare, what in my lifetime was a wonderful winter of frequent snows and persistent cold. I'd like to experience this again in my lifetime (like Red Sox and Cubs fans were for the previously elusive World Series). Some LCD material I was able to obtain for free on-line. This below us for Central Park. If you look closely it was persistently cold with fairly frequent small snows from late Dec 76-early Feb 77. This was even more impressive for the Boston area (couldn't easily find the Boston LCD's for Dec-76,Jan-Feb77) with frequent clippers redeveloping south of LI, as i recall. Wikipedia has a nice summary of the pattern and I'm sure some herein can post the overall 500 mb pattern. I am curious as to the MJO phases? I think the NAO was generally negative, PNA positive. It was a dream that some of us can recall and probably thought should be the norm. Maybe this occurs within 25 years, again? 823A/17

Wantage NJ (8 s High Point) 0.1" fm snow showers ~ 2-3A. Season 19.6. Roads salted. Pavement mostly bare with dusting of snow just on grass/roofs/cars/wooden decks etc.

430A/13 Wantage NJ final on last evenings snow-sleet..at least 0.3"(melting early today with over 1/4" rain so far). Leftover sleet on grass/roofs/wooden decks/cars, but pavement generally wet. Just salted here. 34.2/33.6. Have a good day. Walt

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. 0.2" on all surfaces except pavement wet. 33.9 1004P. Probable last report til morning if anything is left.

Ditto Vernon here in southern Wantage NJ at 845P. snow has started. 38.7/23.5 Possibly my last report of the night.

nw NJ/ne PA... failed forecast expectations for early today high terrain with warm air several hours sooner and minuscule early morning qpf. Couldn't have been more than a Trace of snow here in southern Wantage NJ. Early yesterday was a few hours of what winter used to be like. No snow melt, fluffy 20-25F snow. Was quite something for its 1/2" deposit. wd/529A