wdrag
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Zeta: later than sooner? Less clear to me on Bahamas tropical event per perusal 00z/23 multi model guidance. Invest has occurred and some intensity guidance goes for a TS but not many models and the TC Phase diagram is less likely, initially ~25th. Some guidance waits til the 27th in GMEX, and as per prior posts by others, the first week of Nov. I will say the NAEFS has something going northeast past Bermuda and i can see it vaguely in GFS/EC PWAT guidance for the 25th-26th FL east coast, east northeast or northeast from there. Many words not offering confidence on when-how-where Zeta evolves. Relying on NHC products. Have a good day.
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Zeta: ? My guess this has a 30-50% chance of forming... still warm sst. Minor (marghginal TS) event somewhere e coast Fl newd to near or west of Bermuda. Here's a modeling image. Several operational models show tight shallow warm core. Includes UK, RGEM, GGEM GFS, ICON, NAEFS implied (no JMA/EC). My guess it's a junk storm as some might call it, except if you're in it's marine path. Am monitoring models... definitely not what the GFS was calling for 10 days ago but something can yet emerge.
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I've added this as NEW on the 06z/GEFS500MB run...notice several members closed circulation down near FL. There we zero members like this on the 00z/21 cycle. We'll see if the trend continues. I can't expand any further on this potential until this evening, at the earliest.
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Noticed that as well, but beyond 240 hours... I cant be very confident... but yes, GEFS has some members trying for a tropical event. For now, I want to be sure the 00z/21 models and tropical phase diagrams are wrong about the Bahamas vicinity event of the 25th-26th.
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Zeta: ??? Good Wednesday morning all w interest between FL-Bermuda 25th-27th. I saw the NHC dropped tropical potential overnight but 00z-06z/21 operational modeling suggests (multi models) that a shallow warm core tropical circulation will develop by the 25th vicinity-Cuba- east coast FL and head northeast or east-northeast. It probably won't be too deep vertically but I'm expecting something that may need to be named a small TS between the 25th-27th. I can easily be wrong, so no promises. I will admit I'm wrong as soon as modeling gives it up (again). 655A/21
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EPSILON is now named. 11A EDT/19. NHC taking it to 80kt for now. We'll see what happens. There are now probs for 30 ft seas near the center by Fri-Sat and a very high probability for an extensive area of 12 ft seas well to the west and north of center.
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27 started by NHC this morning. TC phase for at least two days has been very good on predicting immediate warm core and the intensity to ~TS sometime today. Intensity guidance has been ramping up. Presume the eventual Epsilon should get down to the the 950s or 960sMB by ~late Friday's beginning of recurvature to the ne. UK operationals I think so far are the most intense. Going to be a bit rougher on the ocean along the east coast by the end of the week due to long period easterly and eventual southeasterly swells.
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Epsilon (eventual): Should be sizable TC...pretty impressive looking 'potential'...still a slight westward displacement in eventual track from 24 hours previous but too far east of the E coast. Swells of 7 feet or higher seem plausible to LI by Friday with much bigger impact on marine seas near Bermuda. Intensity forecasts continue to increase-06z/19 attached.
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Hi! Adding this 12z/18 intensity forecast graphic. Based solely on this, my guess is Epsilon would be named by 00z/Tue -20th. ?? I should be corrected if others see it different. The only reason to post this intensity forecast is to show a general uptick in the intensity forecast from that which was posted a couple of days ago, and that some of the models swap intensity forecasts. I presume others are seeing the return of the Caribbean potential in 12z/18 multi models (excluding the UK/EC which have not posted as of this note). It is still e of FL with an unknown magnitude/track but I think worthy of monitoring. 123P/18
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Am not giving up on Caribbean Sea development around the 25th--- possibly now delayed 3-4 days for what appears to be a large named storm near Bermuda developing this coming week ahead. Water temp anomaly continues weakly positive in the Caribbean genesis area and northward the se USA coast. Last weeks GFS modeling for that that storm has trended null for that date, but my feeling based on fewer but still strong GEFS 500 MB members, is that something is going to get going there between the 25th-28th. Magnitude unknown and maybe just minor. In the meantime: Bermuda- soon to be named Epsilon, seems to be gaining support for a significant ocean storm in the Atlantic vicinity just E and N of Bermuda. Interaction with the Atlantic ridge seems to be forcing a little more w-nw displacement since we looked 24 hours ago, too far off the coast for direct E coast impact, but swells of 5- 6 feet will probably be (typo corrected 1227P) arriving LI s coast by 23rd-24th. This per 00z-06z weaker GFS-GEFS model guidance suggestions, from the still seemingly conservative GFS. WH near Bermuda should be exceeding 12 feet by the 23rd (graphic attached). I have checked Tropical Cyclone Phase (Robert Hart's page) on a number of models excluding the EC... it's modeled warm core. First I need to know we have a named storm and then monitor ridge adjustment to the north of it's eventual nnw-ne recurve.
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Hi! Been asked a question: Trying to save a little time... if someone here has an answer, could you reply. Thank you. 2005? Some sources have listed it as having 27 TS, others 28? Which is correct? Since there are 21 letters of the English alphabet used and the last storm that year was Zeta (6th letter of the Greek alphabet) wouldn't that mean there were 27 TS that year not 28? Walt
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I "think" Epsilon gets named within 48 hours. Here's some prelim multi-model intensity guidance and EPS tracks. Bermuda area. I think this is the first publicly available non NHC specific ensemble= guidance. Use your best judgement. Last I checked today, Tropical Phase Cyclone guidance suggested warm core symmetric for this. Let's see what happens. No matter, I'm leaving any topic naming on this forum and all the tropical details of intensification/track/broadening coverage to our group participants, since I'm no tropical expert. I just like that the models have been onto this for quite awhile.
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NHC up to 60% on the Bermuda storm (Epsilon?) at 2P/16. This one apparently will probably stay out there vicinity Bermuda before taking off northeast after the 22nd?
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Just for fun: I've finally found the LR GEFS wave and wind forecast site for the Atlantic. Graphic below is for chance of wave heights above 12 feet around 10/25. This is accomplished without the 00z/16 OP contribution from (?Zeta? = Cuba-FL vicinity). Note the sw Atlantic. I checked Cyclone Phase Analysis and Forecasting for the Bermuda - Central Atlantic storm of 20-23... its warm core on all models. To me, that suggests a named storm eventually. Probs slowly coming up on the TWO. SST may be a little marginal in the initiation area but if it does slip southwest for a while, it may move over more favorable ocean heat. Also, SST continue a bit above normal se USA coast and e GMEX and anomaly is tending to depart positively a bit there.
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Good Friday morning everyone, I am paying attention to the pattern around October 25-27. Zeta (my expectation only-if the earlier near Bermuda system ~10/20-22 doesn't get named Epsilon, then I suspect the FL system around 24th-25th would be Epsilon). We'll see if the 500 MB pattern adjusts to a sharper trough near 80-85W longitude as the EPS is starting to trend recently. If not, then no problem. 00z/16 NAEFS shows something along the se USA coast then peeling out to sea northeastward. VERY VERY early (9 days) but based on multi op models and multiple ensembles, am glad am not cruising Bermuda to Key West...I think its going to be a little on the rough side as opposed to typical daily tropical. Again, only what I'm looking for. It still may not pan out. 657A/16
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8PM NHC post tonight... 00z/15 issuance. All very low probs so I'll defer to the eventual reality... something potentially to look at between the 19th-27th.
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Good Wednesday morning... It's now 4 days since the GEFS was signaling two new TC's in the 17th-26. CAVEAT: I'm NOT-NOT A TROPICAL EXPERT. All i do is read the models-ensembles-trends, realize pattern recognition generally adds value and then use all the experts surrounding us (Including here and other forums) and go from there. I also try to account for the possibility of modeling expectations to fail---i.e. NO storms. That said... Whether a TC-hybrid comes up the E coast ???? timing timing timing with the primary trough reforming eastern USA next 2 weeks. What I'm 80-90% confident of is one, probably two Tropical Cyclones in the week of the 19th-26th in the tropical Atlantic (Epsilon, and Zeta). This was first developing as an option on the GEFS ~ Oct 10th 00z-06z cycle. The GGEM is now grabbing onto the first s of Bermuda around the 20th. The EC has something too, and in the operational cycle brings it nw to the se USA coast by the 24th. However the 00z/14 EC ensembles progress west and then have a difficult time figuring out two storms (one heading west toward FL, the other moving north from s of CUBA). The GEFS continues strong on the second storm and tracking uncertain. SST continue above normal near the FL coast (below normal near Bermuda and w GMEX due to prior storms upwelling). 00z/14 NAEFS has some idea but undefined right now... My "guess" is in a day or two, NHC TWO will latch onto the first disturbance heading w toward the region s of Bermuda- the latter TC disturbance may not be defined for another 5 days---? Experts should comment here on MJO favorability for the tropical 19th-26th?? (I'm also not an expert on the MJO impacts) I've submitted this for critique on the tropical forum looking for some contrary expertise. My take for my own use: If I had a choice--I'm not taking a cruise between Bermuda and Key West between the 19th-26th. I don't need to deal with the pitch and roll of a rough sea. (Did that on FAMFLOAT with the NWS back in the early 90s and it wasn't a TC--just a winter storm). 1115A/14
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Since it's a big year, am looking ahead with proximity to the USA East coast and GMEX. Epsilon and Zeta appear on the "modeling" horizon in both the GEFS/EPS members between the 17th-26th. The current NHC outlooked 20% chance is not included, though not ruled out. Added only GEFS/EPS member sampling next weekend, with more members showing up in the week thereafter. Eastern GMEX-FL coast still above normal SST. Closed this post with a 10 day outlook for DELTA members (06z/SEP 27).... that tended to be closer to FL for 06z/7, but had a few near the Yucatan. Overall modeling cues seem to be improving, I think.
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Modeling: Overall last 72 hours...which model performed best? and then prior to 72 hours on initiation of DELTA?
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Hi! I add this for October per some tweets I just saw... credit to the authors listed. I trust. 229P/24
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Did anyone notice a very recent tweet from Eric Blake? I can't access this on trop tidbits, but credit goes to Eric Blake, also apparently just promoted to Senior Hurricane Forecaster there. After August 20 a big change in shear across the Atlantic Basin. It's an excellent hint at changes to come around the normal time of basin increase. I can delete this post if you wish. Just caught my attention on trop tidbits. I can't move the loop over to this forum but credit Trop Tidbits-Levi and Eric Blake. Really nice illustration of before and after the Madden-Julian Oscillation passage in the Atlantic from the GEFS-parallel. Note the initial high shear (red) in the deep tropics, then the late Aug transition to lower shear (blue) through the first part of Sep @TropicalTidbits @EricBlake12 · 40m Really nice illustration of before and after the Madden-Julian Oscillation passage in the Atlantic from the GEFS-parallel. Note the initial GIF
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Agreed... though one positive for the early Euro on Isaias... it sensed a struggle from start up to ~FL...in other words it was so weak it kind of knew conditions were not very good. That's my take away when models disagree, especially longer range=caution. That's one reason was very broad in the NYC forum topic starter outlook. Didn't want to overplay the hand.
