wdrag

Since it's a big year, am looking ahead with proximity to the USA East coast and GMEX. Epsilon and Zeta appear on the "modeling" horizon in both the GEFS/EPS members between the 17th-26th. The current NHC outlooked 20% chance is not included, though not ruled out. Added only GEFS/EPS member sampling next weekend, with more members showing up in the week thereafter. Eastern GMEX-FL coast still above normal SST. Closed this post with a 10 day outlook for DELTA members (06z/SEP 27).... that tended to be closer to FL for 06z/7, but had a few near the Yucatan. Overall modeling cues seem to be improving, I think.

Modeling: Overall last 72 hours...which model performed best? and then prior to 72 hours on initiation of DELTA?

There's your smoke aloft sunrise... 6 hr modeled forecast for 8AM...axis of some smoke aloft is I95. It will thin midday then thicken briefly again late this afternoon.

Leading mid level frontogenesis (FGEN) developing northeastward ahead of remnant DELTA will probably begin showers-sprinkles over NJ/NYC during Sunday afternoon-evening. Subsequent intensifying bands of FGEN associated with a probable sfc low crossing NJ Monday to Cape Cod early Tuesday will lead to periods of moderate to heavy rain with gusty east winds briefly nudging 35 knots coastal LI to Sandy Hook NJ for a time Monday. PWAT generally 1.5 to 1.9" through the event should result in widespread 1"+ of rain with 3"+ more likely reserved for parts of the upslope Poconos, then across central-ne NJ to LI with Isolated 4.5" possible. Best chance of 4.5" seems to be across Ocean Middlesex Counties of NJ "IF" it is to occur. Quite a bit of cold air damming is anticipated and temperatures north of the surface low may only be in the upper 40s and 50s during the day Monday throughout the forum (coldest north of LI, and across se NYS down into extreme nw NJ). Heaviest rain should be done by 11PM Monday evening, but leftover periods of cyclonic flow drizzle and bands of showers associated with the trough axis passage will occur into the early daylight hours Tuesday. Flash Flood Guidance is high so flash flooding unlikely though ponding of water is expected to slow travel at times Monday (in part caused by short periods of heavy rain and some leaf clogged drainage basins). We need the rain.

In case you notice a little haziness to the sky this eve, or tomorrow morning, it's smoke from the western USA. Here is a sample modeled position of the plume tomorrow morning around sunrise when it may be a little more prominent overhead of the I95 corridor.

Barring a significant drying out of the operational00z/10 NAM/GFS/EC/ICON/GGEM, will probably start a topic tomorrow morning for the period 2PM Sunday-2PM Tuesday of a 1-3" rain event and chance of a tiny area of 4.5" w possible gale gusts vicinity LI-Sandy Hook. More details tomorrow morning (upon further review as they say). I've added the 36 hour chance of 3+" of rain from the SREF...it is decidedly beefier than the GFS...so it's heavier forecast is not a lock. You'll view th'e chance of 3"+ using the legend comparison, ending at 11PM Monday (which might be most of the event?), save for less than 1/2" additional of drizzle-rain after 11 PM Monday through Noon Tuesday. Also the bottom panel has the average of the SREF members.

Looking back to the first week of October which the NAEFS modeled odds favoring colder than normal. NOT here at our longitude eastward in the forum. No freezes, no snow in the Ads-Catskills, no coldest day of the season. The verification was very good in Ohio Valley-Great Lakes to the Apps. We ended up in the bad forecast zone (too cool). Here it is...

No topic yet for late Sunday-Wed night. Too much variability and NAEFS probs for 2+ diminished a bit since yesterday. WPC also cut back a little. Lots of potential though and can see general 1-2" spotty 4.5" by Tuesday evening with beyond uncertainty but further qpf possible Wed and even Thursday. PWAT/instability burst late Sunday-Monday morning and then PWAT near 2" late Monday-Tuesday morning. Even could be isolated thunder. With a big cool high to the northeast, could see G 35KT near LI. For now, waiting it out to see if the GEFS comes back closer to the EPS for late Sun-Tuesday. Models have slowed a bit so Sunday afternoon-evening is a little in doubt. Overall, for myself, just don't want to topic what could still be only a routine event.

Appears to me from RAL tracks, that the primary DELTA goes west of us Monday but a triple point low, in part caused by the strong cool high to our northeast Sunday may focus 1-2" qpf in a part of our forum on Monday. My expectation is the later Sunday portion will be associated with FGEN banding well in advance of DELTA... working on showery Louisiana 700 MB moisture that arrives here this weekend. The Monday rains should be more DELTA involved. Trailer cool frontal band Tuesday...then does it stall over our area Wednesday as a new northern stream trough digs down into the Great Lakes or does it progress eastward out to sea. My guess for NYC CP CLI is 0.3" Sunday, anywhere from 0.5 to 2.5" Monday depending on triple point formation or not, and then Tues could be less than 0.5" with Wednesday unknown but I don 't see Wednesday as necessarily a null day... that day to me is the larger uncertainty. That gives me a NYC CP range by Wed night of 1" minimum to 3.2" max as a very early attempt at ranging... the normal D4-7 uncertainty caveat.

Looking ahead: No topic yet... beneficial rain on the way and over the period of Sunday afternoon (11)-Wednesday night (14th), a pretty high probability that much of our NYC forum receives 2 inches, with spotty 4+ possible. I've added the 00z/8 cycle WPC outlook and the NAEFS probability of 2+". It probably occurs in several pieces with main DELTA remnant later Sunday-Monday night. Thereafter, a couple more bands Tuesday and Wednesday. PWAT will be generally 1.5" through this period, provided the DELTA remnant trough doesn't drive the PWAT axis offshore for Tuesday-Wednesday. 630A/8

As of ~6AM Thursday October 8...remaining power outages, and a listing by OKX of wind gust reports yesterday. A chilly morning for those without power, to our north. Main impact was along the north-east edge of our forum area.

Good evening. It's 8 PM. Adding some more information. Most of our area has escaped wind advisory criteria it appears, but SVR did affect our CT portion of the forum and a small portion of the NYC forum in se NYS. SVR reports to the NWS are graphed, and added the power outages as of 8PM and finally the max gusts, past 3 hrsvfor the various thresholds. Hope this is useful. Good call on the potential nay others on the forum yesterday.

From a NWS resource on another forum: Rare October significant severe weather outbreak today 7 October. KALB airport gusted to 59 Kt and widespread tree damage, trees on cars, houses, shingles torn off, power poles down and other widespread damage. Wind gusts at some other locations 60 Kt or greater. Lots of lightning and thunder, too. Very unusual for October. Cooling aloft, steep midlevel lapse rates, small hail enhanced downdrafts where boundary layer mean winds 50 Kt or greater. Anyway, CAPEs <1000 j/kg and in many areas <500 j/kg. Lots of damage and again, unusual for October Please go to our NWS Albany Facebook and Twitter accounts for pictures and videos from our followers.

Wantage NJ .01 earlier this afternoon. MAX G 32 MPH at 520P.

Thats correct: The EC and EPS GEFS ensembles are now much more similar to each other and the NAEFS continues with rain later Sunday afternoon into Monday, possibly even Tuesday and Wednesday with additional showery bouts. Will reevaluate for a topic tomorrow morning. No doubt the EC joined NAEFS and GEFS with its 12z/7 cycle.

Added max gust reports past hour.... probably since 445P. All up to our north. KBGM: Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KELZ: Wellsville, Wellsville Municipal Airport, NY, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KFZY: Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KIAG: Niagara Falls, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMPO: Mount Pocono, PA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KMWN: Mount Washington, NH, United States [48kt, 25m/s] KORE: Orange, Orange Municipal Airport, MA, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KPBG: Plattsburgh AFB, NY, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KPSF: Pittsfield, Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KPTK: Pontiac, Oakland County Intl Arpt, MI, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KRME: Griffiss AFB / Rome, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KROC: Rochester, Greater Rochester Intl Arpt, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KSYR: Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock Intl Arpt, NY, United States [48kt, 25m/s] LF

Will add more as soon as I find more: Here is a map of damage reports and power outages... as SPC outlined. Bad night and morning ahead for I90 as cold air arrives. Might even be a touch of snow in the Adirondacks by dawn?

Several more 40+kt wind gusts ever closer. KIAG: Niagara Falls, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMWN: Mount Washington, NH, United States [48kt, 25m/s] KPTK: Pontiac, Oakland County Intl Arpt, MI, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KRME: Griffiss AFB / Rome, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KROC: Rochester, Greater Rochester Intl Arpt, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KSYR: Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock Intl Arpt, NY, United States [48kt, 25m/s] Recent wind damage and hail reports, upstream. 348P/7 post

Damaging wind reports so far...not MPING 01:18 pm EDT - 10/7/20202 W OSWEGO, NYTstm Wnd Gst58 MPH0 2:15 pm EDT - 10/7/20201 NNW SYRACUSE, NYTstm Wnd Dmg 01:06 pm EDT - 10/7/2020ADAMS, NYTstm Wnd Dmg

Trace rain Wantage NJ and mAX g 25 MPH so far. Max non thunder G so far in NYS the past hr. KRME: Griffiss AFB / Rome, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KROC: Rochester, Greater Rochester Intl Arpt, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KSYR: Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock Intl Arpt, NY, United States [48kt, 25m/s]

I may be watching a ball game during the event and hoping anyone who see's 40kt upstream just nw of our area will post. Latest HRRR seems a little lighter but radar is fairly impressive for midday in upper NYS.

Posting the 06z/7 analysis by OPC. Note DELTA near the Yucatan. Now the 00z/27 (10 day outlook) of the GEFS members and a few down near the lower left (Yucatan). Many members with tropical too close to FL. Still this is not a bad outlook for potential. I did not include the EFS members-wasn't thinking about the EPS at that time.

Prior modeling steep lapse rates momentum transfer prompts on the forum, the wind advisory issuance by OKX for LI/se NYS/CT, the marginal risk for SVR by SPC skirting the northern fringe of the forum, all are contributing to this topic. CAA aloft steepens lapse rates this afternoon as intensifying low pressure crosses northern Maine this evening. Winds at 850 MB will be 40 to possibly 50 knot and so there is a chance to latch onto some of the 40 knot gusts. Best chance for spotty gusts 46 MPH or greater appears to be se NYS, CT, e LI. Appears to me most of the wind gusts will be 40-45 MPH but gusts 50-60 MPH are possible, especially e LI. Gust algorithms from the 00z/7 cycle EC, and SPC HREF are generally a bit weaker than the early morning HRRR, tho SPC HREF MAX gusts do offer the potential. Evaporating sewd moving showers may add to the transfer. 657A/7

Good Wednesday morning everyone, No DELTA post yet... Modeling differs quite a bit still with the EC and it's EPS unwilling to join NAEFS/GEFS. I think it will begin showering here late Saturday or definitely Sunday (FGEN with a cold front and DELTA moisture leak northeastward well ahead) with a cool rainy Monday, BUT modeling is not agreement and therefore I'm not quite willing to express enough confidence for a DELTA remnant post tropical TOPIC 2"+ rainfall, Gust 35 Knot event here late Sunday-Monday. In the meantime, I'll start a post for the wind advisory 1P-10P. Am not quite as gong ho as I'd like to be. LI-CT/SE NYS have best chance for scattered 46+ MPH gusts. I think the max G might make 60 MPH vicinity e LI but not likely. More in the topic. Thanks for the previous prompts on this topic.

Delta: On the verge of making this a topic here but want to wait 24 hours more to see if the EPS/GEFS show more se 850MB flow across LI. For now, will add a few graphics to show the likelihood of at least some needed rain here, with, on the low end probability a decent nor'easter, provided DELTA's remnant low passes across s NJ and the attempted modeling of a decent surface high to our north, occurs. Being this is 6-7 days in the future I wouldn't plan on this occurring as ensembled but low chance exists for 2+" rainfall and gale gusts LI. IF the ensembles appear more definitive Wednesday morning (00z/7 cycle), I'll get this going. NAEFS 24 hr mean qpf ending 00z, Sun, Mon, Tue, NAEFS mean pattern for 00z/Mon, NAEFS low chance of 2+ inches of rain here (~25%) between 00z/Sun-00z/Tue, NAEFS probability of 30MPH wind which is ~50% for our mariner water, a family high chance-driven by the high to the north I presume. The GEFS and EPS qpf and then you can see the last chart which is WPC's forecast, sides with the drier EPS.