wdrag

I don't know. The following are a bunch of words. I'm a little confused about NAEFS evolution. Typically it's the GFS that is too slow coming out of the SW USA but in this case, it's faster and I like it (it doesn't lock up in desert sw). Whether I like it and am more right than wrong??? What I do see is quite a bit of potential the first two weeks of Dec for southern stream short waves coming up off the east coast. In other words... precip threats but whether snow or rain??? The NAEFS is trending confidently below normal across Dixie early December, and above normal southern Canada. That is a broad displacement and an active southern stream (I think). Could be wrong ,especially if the future cycles of the NAEFS lose the modeled departures. I may comment tomorrow or Wednesday? Todays cycle has quite a bit of 200MB jet constantly south of 37N, especially early Dec and it is modeled the predominant jet in N America. Doesn't seem Nina like? More Nino-like to me, at least temporarily. No????? It's modeling-subject to large errors beyond 7 days as you noted earlier? Yourself and others probably understand whether what is ensemble modeled, can realistically happen Dec 1-14. For me, it's probably best to not broadcast too much hope but be aware of what appears to be a somewhat better pattern of "opportunities" to begin DJF. Maybe we can an inch or two of snow out of this pattern in NYC in early Dec?

I see it in 12z/23 CMC. No question phasing for a big storm is complicated (not a high prob) and if comes in pieces, how it all transpires makes a sig difference in ptype outcomes this time of year. Monitoring. If this potential continues another two days, may start a 48-72 hr topic on wet wind event, followed by ptype-accumulative western-northwestern suburbs snow. Sooooo. early right now and prefer not give this second storm idea much credence, yet. Another post somewhere in NYC forum a day or 3 ago had also mentioned the colder more interesting look to DEC around here. In the end, we've got to keep in mind stats-climo.

Good morning, No topic yet but 5 successive cycles of the EC indicates the potential for a period of 45-55MPH gusts Nov 30 or early Dec 1 entire NYC forum. Something is coming in that two day period... sizable trough and small chance of a northern-southern stream phaser.

Good Monday morning all (Nov 23), Yesterday morning had the slightest of an ice pellet-snow shower north of I-84 per reports here and mPing. We're going to try to out-perform that Wednesday morning and a little caution is urged on a big warmup for Thanksgiving morning n of I-84. So, no big snowstorms foreseen in November I-84 northward, but eventually the more seasonable first half of December might produce something that is more than 3" for I-84. Tuesday: Maybe a flurry? (Accumulative snow showers concentrated near Oneida Lake in NYS). Wednesday: A short period of snow or flurries is anticipated between 1AM and 10AM, that could produce a covering (less than 1"), especially Poconos, CT/MA and the Adirondacks. See UKMET snow cover graphic which includes snow showers in upper NYS today and tomorrow. The idea is the southern edge of the snow...while it may not be that far south, at least a flurry is anticipated that far south, per increasingly south modeling of the past 24 hours. Which also tells me, that it may be quite cool on Thanksgiving n of I84...high terrain of slight icing interest there. For now, that is an outlier possibility for our NYC forum northern fringe. Wind: will mention for entire forum Nov 30 or Dec 1. Looking forward to see how this all turns out.

Hi... After review of what happened today... not much, but a very brief period of ice pellets did occur in at least some spots of our NYC nw-ne suburbs forum; just north of I84 this morning trending to a brief mix of snow further north of POU. Models tend to underplay the very minor lead thrusts of warmer air arriving and so, am glad a few on here may have seen 5 minutes of wintry weather. We'll give it another try Wednesday morning near daybreak. Very brief and overall inconsequential but some of the modeling is coming back south. We'll see what happens. Meanwhile a few flurries in the wake of the cold front tomorrow=Monday, may cross some of our higher terrain late Monday or Tuesday.

and as recently as around 11A-1115A... reports of snow/sleet just s of Kingston NY and two reports of ice pellets near Waterbury CT.

So far only sprinkles MPO, MSV, Wantage NJ, with ice pellets near Carbondale PA around 930A and apparently now vicinity MSV. Probably sprinkles further e in CT lower elevations. at 1015A.

Pretty dead on the NYC forum the past day or so... yep, not much to talk about. There is a 2 hour northeastward transitory window of opportunity for the higher terrain of the I84 corridor to see a showery spritz of mPING noticeable ice pellets-flurries, or freezing rain sprinkles, between 8A-2P. That band as this is written 647AM is now trying to grow east -northeastward between I78-I80 in PA-NJ. So far, dry air at 850MB is evaporating whatever is trying to reach the ground. This band of showery very light precipitation should gradually organize a bit more as it passes out of ne PA/se NYS after 1030AM and heads toward ALB-CEF. That's as exciting as i see it on front end wintry events. The Wed morning possibility still exists, but chances are 80% that it won't occur. sighhhh

Following up this Saturday morning nw suburbs! It's Nov 21 and while no big snowstorms are outlooked here through November, it's not necessarily completely devoid of snow. A brief period of ice pellets-flurries or freezing rain is possible for the I-84 high terrain corridor 9A-3P Sunday, especially Poconos and possibly extreme nw NJ/interior se NYS There may be another period of snow I-84 northward Wednesday morning, with less than 1" high terrain accumulation possible (see 00z/21 UKMET). These are exceedingly minor events, if they were to occur but it's something that may briefly spark mPING interest for the wintry weather diehards (me), IF they were to occur. NO guarantee's. This paragraph is based on 00z/21 multi model usage, leaning on the NAM-3K, UKMET, SPC HREF. Have added 06/21 NAM FGEN modeled prediction for ~9A Sunday. Right now that says little or nothing for I84 but if that happens to extend a little further east (red is FGEN) in future modeling-reality, then we're in. Thermal profile for MSV (Monticello NY) suggests ice pellets or freezing rain, BUT, if the fgen lift is stronger then the column cools the warmer dryer layer near 850 MB seen around 15z (10A) and suddenly we have a few minutes of snow. For now, it's a long shot and all I can excited about in the next few days. When you look at the KMSV profile, any precip before 7PM Sunday night certainly can freeze over the higher terrain (sub 32F profile). The question then becomes, is the modeling a touch too cold there in the NYS high terrain? (I also use KMSV for extreme nw NJ near State Route 23 (High Point-Montague and Wantage). 655A/21

Good morning, I did not post a minuscule snow outlook on the main forum since it won't affect NYC but tossed it in the nw suburbs portion where even extreme nw NJ may briefly (hour or two) see some snow or sleet Sunday and Wednesday. Wish it were better but I think of this... as scientifically depressing the outlooks herein for this winter, the sample size can always be expanded with normal seasonal snowfall. Timing-timing-timing of short waves with cold air.

Good Friday morning nw suburbs! It's Nov 20 and while no big snowstorms are outlooked here through November, it's not completely devoid of snow. A brief period of little or no accumulation for the I-84 corridor is "possible" 9A-3P Sunday. There may be another period of snow I-84 northward Wednesday morning, with less than 2" high terrain accumulation possible. These are exceedingly minor events, if they were to occur but it's something that may briefly dress up the landscape, IF they were to occur. NO guarantee's. This paragraph is based on 00z/20 multi model usage, leaning on the NAM-3K, UKMET, SPC SREF plumes and nearby ECMWF hints.

fwiw... past 24 hours rough idea of new snowfall. This part of Wantage NJ Trace both yesterday and this morning.

Trace of snow showers here in Wantage NJ since 730A. mPing has some snow obs.

One note: and this is written not knowing if a TOR survey is being conducted... but warnings are warnings--- whether they verify is another matter. Therefore, what to me is most important on TOR climo, is not the # of warnings but # of occurrences. The warning for me only means big wind is being detected with probable rotation to the surface. I didn't check but I suspect this was an updated warning (TOR) embedded in what previously had been a big lead time SVR. To me the prior SVR would be the critical notifier-headsup... take cover! EF1 (86MPH+ ) or greater is more important to me than the EF0's- from a science standpoint I understand EF0 documentation but from a lead time value added here in the northeast with many fleeting short lived EF0 signatures, the prior SVR was critical. For what it's worth, HSLC environments like yesterday's can produce embedded TOR's and was what I was hinting at in pre-event discussion of breaks in a line etc. I just didn't want to name it... modeling for the TOR I thought was minimal and mentioning TOR puts pressure on forecasters, just via ph calls. I think it gets too much attention unless it's clearly signaled via modeling, radar, debris signatures and most of all ..ground truth.. Again, this is written without knowledge if there was a tornado or not.

Hi. I don't know on both, perhaps others might. Strong PPP falls and some rises behind may have caused the seiche on LErie along with strong westerly gradient. Presume you meant 1.5 ft seiche...not 15 ft tsunami-like impact. Derecho... long lived for sure, and not sure if enough 75 MPH wind gusts? Am sure others may have more info to answer. Here's some info you can do some additional research into. When i think of Derecho...I tend to think spring-summer and many 75-90 MPH gusts enroute. However, I must be corrected if am wrong. Thanks. One of the authors, is the recently passed, excellent SELS-SPC forecaster-teacher = Bob Johns.

Just for the fun of it...take a look back at the Eta Remnant potential thread p2 1148AM Friday post which had the timing of the squall line. RGEM vs NAM3K. Amazing RGEM timing. This was just 8 hours before this damage thread was started Friday evening. I've been liking the RGEM lately...expresses qpf areas nicely, and timing. Might be slightly too robust on qpf amount but overall... a worthy check through the Tropical Tidbits link, or your other favorite resources.

Some early 5 day summary info appended. Includes NYS mesonet and radar-sensor qpf for the entire period. (i in Wantage NJ had only .92 on the edge of the blue area in nw NJ). Added CoCoRAHS around 115PM. Initial topic 1-3" was better than the followup 2-4 iso 6 for our NYC forum. Rainy-drizzly a good part of the daylight hours Wed-Thu-Fri, then final event arrived very late in the day Sunday the 15th.

Good Monday morning all, Here's a quick summary of max gusts in the OKX area, that the NWS reported. Am pretty sure there will have to be an update later today.Havez no idea if a TOR Survey is planned? Seems like 50-65 MPH was common in the more intense bands. Am heartened that the Richardson # and wind fields from the 3K NAM were valuable prevent assessments. This same 3K NAM was 2 hrs too fast with the squalli line on Friday...RGEM superior. Power outages not quite as bad LI/CT as expected. See pix for this morning. The customers out = meters. Most homes have only 1 meter. So, for total people out...safely, twice the # of meters. I'll wrap up the 5 day thread separately around 11A. Thanks for all the reports. LOCATION MAX WIND TIME/DATE COMMENTS GUST OF MPH MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...Fairfield County... Stamford 67 747 PM 11/15 CWOP Bridgeport Airport 61 914 PM 11/15 ASOS Greenwich 57 716 PM 11/15 CWOP Bridgeport 53 818 PM 11/15 NOS-NWLON Bridgeport 46 803 PM 11/15 CWOP ...New Haven County... New Haven Airport 58 830 PM 11/15 ASOS New Haven 56 825 PM 11/15 CWOP Milford 53 806 PM 11/15 CWOP Stony Creek 52 928 PM 11/15 CWOP Meriden Airport 46 934 PM 11/15 ASOS ...New London County... Groton Airport 55 1024 PM 11/15 ASOS NEW JERSEY ...Essex County... Caldwell 55 817 PM 11/15 ASOS ...Union County... Newark Airport 60 829 PM 11/15 ASOS NEW YORK ...Nassau County... 1 NW Uniondale (WEAT 51 820 PM 11/15 MESOWEST Muttontown 47 905 PM 11/15 CWOP Valley Stream 46 806 PM 11/15 CWOP ...Queens County... NYC/La Guardia 62 844 PM 11/15 ASOS NYC/JFK Airport 59 755 PM 11/15 ASOS Jackson Heights 49 900 PM 11/15 CWOP ...Richmond County... 2 SE Elizabeth 70 830 PM 11/15 NDBC ...Suffolk County... Islip Airport 54 933 PM 11/15 ASOS Orient 54 1000 PM 11/15 CWOP Farmingdale Airport 54 915 PM 11/15 ASOS Farmingville 51 947 PM 11/15 CWOP West Gilgo Beach 50 816 PM 11/15 CWOP Shirley Airport 49 928 PM 11/15 ASOS Stony Brook 49 816 PM 11/15 CWOP Orient 48 1016 PM 11/15 CWOP Stony Brook 46 934 PM 11/15 CWOP ...Westchester County... White Plains Airport 53 849 PM 11/15 ASOS

Did not check... but the 70 makes sense... per modeled profile. Am not surprised. Rooftop it is... which can also be tree crown top at 30-40 feet above ground level.

Rooftop Open Site Photos Viewer General Information Station ID BKLN Location 5.2 km (3.2 mi) ESE of Brooklyn County Kings Latitude 40.631762° / N 40° 37′ 54″ Longitude -73.953678° / W 73° 57′ 13″ Elevation 33.2 meters / 109 feet Installed June 19, 2017 2:45 pm Station Number 33 Climate Division 4 - Coastal NWS Forecast Office OKX - New York, NY Type of Site University Soil Type N/A - Rooftop Obstructions within 100m Buildings, pavement Surroundings City rooftop Show Measured Variables

Brooklyn official NYS mesonet site 70MPH ~ 8-9P.

8P-9P max g 50 kt or greater. KBDR: Bridgeport, CT, United States [50kt, 26m/s] KBEH: Benton Harbor, MI, United States [51kt, 26m/s] KBUF: Buffalo, Greater Buffalo Intl Arpt, NY, United States [54kt, 28m/s] KCYS: Cheyenne, Cheyenne Airport, WY, United States [51kt, 26m/s] KDDH: Bennington, VT, United States [50kt, 26m/s] KDKK: Dunkirk, Chautauqua County, NY, United States [55kt, 28m/s] KDTW: Detroit, MI, United States [51kt, 26m/s] KEWR: Newark, Newark Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [52kt, 27m/s] KGTB: Fort Drum, NY, United States [50kt, 26m/s] KHVN: New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT, United States [50kt, 26m/s] KIAG: Niagara Falls, NY, United States [50kt, 26m/s] KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [51kt, 26m/s] KLDJ: Linden, NJ, United States [54kt, 28m/s] KLGA: New York, La Guardia Airport, NY, United States [54kt, 28m/s] KLNN: Willoughby, OH, United States [50kt, 26m/s] KMWN: Mount Washington, NH, United States [58kt, 30m/s] KRSP: Campd David, MD, United States [51kt, 26m/s] KSYR: Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock Intl Arpt, NY, United States [50kt, 26m/s] KWRI: Mcguire AFB, NJ, United States [50kt, 26m/s]

I may not post too much anymore for tonight... i think things are on track. Keep going strong.

Staten Island on official NYS mesonet. 61 MPH now.