wdrag

fwiw: I think another 1-4" between now and sunrise Wednesday in the increasingly unstable most lapse rates, periods of snow and flurries. Also Friday morning: A possible inch in the WAA ahead of the cold front.

615AM/2: no change. Added some WPC ~05z/2 graphics for the event on 1/7. Chance we'll be watching the Super Bowl either during a snow event (rain e LI?) or cleaning up from whatever occurs. Multiple ensembles have something but whether it's a coastal low (probable) or just a strong cold front is debatable. The snow amount range listed suffices, despite the the EC multiple cycles heavier. This give this opportunity a most probable start.

No change to the 2/6-9 thread. Not starting anything for 2/11-12, 2/14 but more opportunities in some of the ensembles. A nice start to Feb, which tends to have our biggest snowstorms according to a number of sources including Kocin-Uccellini and Stu Astro quoted from an email exchange on another forum yesterday. From Louis Uccellini and Stu Ostro below (excerpts) of an email discussion on another forum. So Paul (who also grew up on LI hearing the same thing) and I explored this in our Climatology Chapter (Chapter 2) in the Northeast Snowstorm monograph. The monthly distributions for snowfall greater than 4" and snowfall greater than 12" in Fig 2-11 on page 25 for 5 cities. From DC to Boston, all 5 cities show a Feb max for greater than 12" with less obvious maxima for the second category: greater than 4". Our review for the 1949 through 1999 is consistent with your more extensive analysis. We also included this finding in our summary (pp 233-234) that February is indeed the month for the "big snows" in the major metropolitan areas along the East Coast. Really glad to see that you have mined the RSI data over the same period and really nailed the magnitude of this signal. Would also like to know where you plan on publishing these results in case Paul and I ever get back to updating the monograph. Also should note here that we analyzed the background "climate" signals for the big snows along the East Coast in Chapter 2. We emphasized there that the NAO was the only climate/larger scale index that showed a large correlation (and significant) with East Coast Snows; especially south of Boston/New England area. The negative NAO is a useful signal to track as that type of pattern appears to effectively lock in the cold air needed along the coastal plains; and also lends itself to a split flow regime upwind that not only sets up the ingredients for these storms but does so in a slower mode (Heaviest snows usually associated with slower moving storms). Lastly I should note that last winter was not so good for us as the NAO remained positive the entire winter! From Stu Ostro below plus his RSI graph.

Data suggests this is/was a top 10 snowstorm for the region of NYC west through NJ and sw to Allentown. I spot checked calendar day records via XMACIS for NYC CP, Allentown, and Sussex NJ. If there need to be corrections, please let me know. NYC CP for 2/1/21 14.8" not only[ a daily record, but ranked #10 highest. POR back to 1869. Allentown for 2/1/21 22.4" not only a daily record but ranks top 2 or 3 depending on your data interpretation,-basically behind January 23ish, 2016 and ahead of January 9, 1996. Their 2 day is 26.9, ditto again #2 or 3 depending on your interp. POR back to 1912. Sussex NJ 2 day (used my 25.0) but thats unofficial and subject to downgrade. Probably around 5th-9th heaviest event. POR back to 1893. All of this in the Period of Record (POR).

Mostly time dated (not up to date) but I'm sure you'll see something in the Mt Holly updated statement by sunrise. From their 1220AM issuance. Mendham 30.0 in 0720 PM 02/01 Public Mount Arlington 28.5 in 0959 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter Randolph 25.8 in 0700 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter Marcella 22.5 in 0930 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter 2 NNE Brookside 22.5 in 0845 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter Lake Hopatcong 22.0 in 0710 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter Millington 20.0 in 1037 PM 02/01 Public Montville 20.0 in 0930 PM 02/01 Public Lincoln Park 18.5 in 1047 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter

Good morning (Feb 2)!b Wantage NJ (this part) 25.0". still 3/4s-. 30.5F. sticking to trees now that the wind has dished considerably and very little drifting now. Another report after 7A.

ABE 22.5 through 7P is ~# 6 two day snowfall.

I plan to do two day CoCRAHS snow maps tomorrow around 10A. Have a night. Walt

Wantage NJ, this part... 19.7" at 8tP. Still moderate to heavy small flake snow. Temp up to 29.3F.

This part of Wantage NJ 15.5" at 415P, with 3" past 75 minutes ending 415P. 26.1F rising slowly. SD 14 due to drifting and packing. Mostly small flake snow now.

Wantage NJ 4sw 3PM report. 12.5 total. SD 11.5. Packing-drifting. uneasy measure... certainly an inch hour + since 11A with max vsby 1/4MI small to medium raining flakes! Love it. 25.2F and rising slowly. Walt Next report around 6P.

Wantage NJ 1230P 9.3 " in this part. packing and drifting so the average SD seems to be about 8.5" 23.7F

Wantage NJ 8 S of HP 6.5" at 920A... up to 21F. off line shortly for 90 min snow removing.

So I hope everyone is starting to think this ia pretty good winter, despite the terrible accounting of snowfall in January. Have started a new thread for Feb 6-9. I'll hold off on Valentines Day for another 5-6 days pending modeling.

Sunday morning 618AM update. Leaving the forecast to the NWS and our forum. Please see attached NWS collaborated and SPC ensemble HREF snowfall. Other models a little less than this, so am a little concerned about melting initially NYC-LI coastal NJ (even rain to start for an hour or so); but it should snow hard for a few hours midday. Seems to have a slightly later start. There will be banding and snow ratios may end up near 12 to 1 nw of I95... and only 10 to 1 NYC east and south. 618A/7 Saturday morning 601A: No significant changes. You've got this. Adding a few graphics 00z/6 SPC HREF snow acc, WPC prob of 2 and 8", NWS collaborated snowfall. Follow NWS forecasts warnings/advisories for details and ourselves. Will add the OBS thread around 7PM tonight (am offline much of the afternoon). Heaviest snowfall rates 10A-3P with decent arced banding near I95. Friday afternoon 509PM: Title change dropped late 6th-early 8th and reworded Description. NAM/GGEM/RGEM are tending to be the most robust of the models with a warnable 6-12" event LI and NJ basically s of I78 with lesser amounts north. Banding and decent snow growth may permit this but ensembles and other modeling indicate a little less. I think the minimum snowfall in our NYC subforum counties will be 2". Am not too worried about sleet on the southern edge for our area. Bottom line, shovels and snowblowers will be needed before the Super Bowl and safely keep those hydrant areas cleaned, and gutters from having dammed up meltwater icicles. Flat roofs might have some structure problems if the water content of the remaining snow exceeds limits (unknown to me). If removing snow, especially roofs/gutters-----safety FIRST. Friday the 5th - 649AM: Little change. Snow is coming and will continue increasing area seasonal snow totals higher (pushing normal or above by the start of the Super Bowl). I haven't checked seasonal normals except what I know for NYC (already above) and our area of nw NJ (at or above). Thinking the 06z/5 NAM may be a bit robust and since the GGEM/RGEM are keeping the bigger snowfall se NJ southward, therefore am reluctant thinking of warning amounts in our subforum, more generally a 1-5", 6-12 hour snowfall North to South. A pleasant refresher on an almost national holiday. Three graphics added on the last page. Thursday Feb 4: 614AM topic update. Have dropped the wind event (45MPH+) and wind chill (-15 Poconos) and narrowed the date range. As many are witnessing, the modeling has been uncertain but always the ensembles have suggested a little bit of snow Sunday. Individual model operational cycles have tended to be nil (exception EC and V16 robust early on) until the 06z/4 GFS V15 and 16. The 06z GEFS has developed an 850MB LO just south of LI and increased qpf dramatically. (graphic added). Noting also other 00z/4 ensemble MINOR increases in QPF and NAEFS indications of rapidly developing low pressure as it passes southeast of our subforum Sunday night. Until the ensembles nix the event, am continuing the snow threat. The 00z/4 MEX MOS was only 14% chance of qpf Sunday, so it's difficult to be sure about an event Sunday. Ensembles suggestion and recent GFS northward trend (uncertain) in my mind require consideration of a general 1-4" snow event Sunday (may be melting on pavement on LI with marginal near freezing temps during any snow). I've kept the 9" max in there, just in case the coastal comes closer but 9" is highly unlikely. We do know it's going to be a vigorous event but its northwest proximity to our area is in doubt. Gusty north-northwest winds may follow Sunday night and it could be quite a bit colder Monday morning (near 14 NYC?) than statistical guidance suggests. No thread on the 9th-10th, if ever) until Super Bowl Sunday is better resolved. Added 06z GEFS 24 hr qpf, as well as a number of plumes for LGA , qpf, snow, 2m temps and 850 temp) ----- From the original issuance on Feb 1. This coming wintry weather event(s) will be dwarfed by the Feb 1-2 near blizzard top 10 (changed from 20 to 10 on 2/2) snow storm. It will probably only have moderate impact upon the NYC forum but reemphasize to our NYC forum members that winter has yet to depart, no matter what the Ground Hog says. Modeling envisions a fast moving coastal low, probably around the 7th. Gusty northwest winds of 40-50 MPH behind the storm later Sunday the 7th or Monday the 8th may usher in the coldest NYC temps of the season (so far 14F) for Tuesday morning the 9th. These sub14F wind driven temps arrive on a west wind which is more difficult to permit the anomalous cold to enter NYC, BUT---more than adequate snow depth NYC westward will permit an easier time of crossing the Appalachians. Wind chill advisories are possible for the I84 region of the nw part of our forum (-15 WCI). The wind and coldest of the season (wind chill advisory as well) are the least certain elements of this topic. Thought it would be good to get this coast to coaster thread going for further discussion, especially after the glow of whatever occurs Feb 1-2, is past. My very early take on accums is 1-9" (necessarily broad due to thread the needle fast moving low and development phase- the idea this would much less than 2/1). Still think we need to be cautious about roof snow loads this first half of February, and of course the SAFE removal of same. The driver is the trough coming into the west coast by late Tuesday Feb 2, that eventually merges with a diving short wave into Great Lakes that makes a negative tilt trough drill into the northeast states by Monday the 8th. There will be more than ample blocking in Canada and the early 850MB anomalies in some of the ensemble modeling are quite impressive. I think this will be a pretty big wintry news maker across the northern USA next weekend-early next week. Monday the 1st: Added the NWS D7 ensemble probability of 3+" of snow and the 00z/1 GFS EP MEX guidance. Tuesday the second added the D6 WPC QPF and their updated ensemble probability of 3+ inches of snow

Thanks... great start... big day.

Prelim 7AM CoCoRAHS obs for the storm... and Power outage map as a base line. I have 5" in Wantage NJ as of 625A.

I'm posting early CoCoRAHS...doesnt look like much e LI? How much there and also CP 7AM? 4"?

My advice: Anyone expecting storm totals more than 10" should do your first big cleanup between now and 10AM, then sit back and enjoy. I'll do my second around 4PM (whereby I think I'll have 6-8" in 6 hours, and then an 8PM for another 6 in 4 hours" Then tomorrow morning...cant wake the neighbors. If anyone thinks they can snow blow 12" of 32-33F wet snow, they may be surprised at the difficulty. Certainly my blower cant handle more than 24" max dry snow and probably less than that. Don't tear the rotator cuff and those with heart conditions, be especially careful. Stay free of downed wires this afternoon-evening and if power goes out, watch that those generator fumes don't build up inside your home. Best to all!

Showery event this morning.

Good morning: straight cut and paste on the NOWcast for today only. Left the graphics on the topic thread. Dangerous storm today. Safety first. DPW's and first responders need priority. Recovery begins tomorrow. Difficult for me to understand why no bans on travel today (10A-10P)in NNJ/ne PA. Sleet up to Allentown early today and so when precip lighter this morning, sleet could mix in to LI/NYC but you should be good for several hours of 1/4S+BS and 1"/hour snowfall rates as the temps rise into the 30s...already above freezing parts of e LI. Not ideal lift in the dendrite zone for LI but good enough. No matter, take what you can get there. Tonight I see little way that is snows on LI as max lift has shifted nw of I95 and the deep ice nuclei seeding from CI is gone (dry slot) with the only hope that salt nuclei might be able to keep a little snow going there. Expecting per modeling 15-20 more inches between 6A and 10PM NNJ (especially Sussex/Passiac/Morris counties), ne PA near KMPO and interior se NYS with another half foot 10P tonight-sunrise Wednesday. Drifts to at least 4 feet ridges. Damaging wind and I think big power outages this afternoon-evening from combined wet snow load of 6"snow on trees/wires and gusts probably 55-70 MPH on LI (even NYC though I think the 70MPH is reserved for ISP east.) and 40-55 MPH elsewhere in our forum just n and w of NYC. Coastal flooding: looks like 3-4 successive high tide cycles beginning late this morning-midday with the first minor or moderate, the midnightish tonight high tide moderate to major ; and then followed by two minors tomorrows high tide cycles.

Good morning American Weather! Welcome to February! Dangerous storm today. Safety first. DPW's and first responders need priority. Recovery begins tomorrow. Difficult for me to understand why no bans on travel today (10A-10P)in NNJ/ne PA. Sleet up to Allentown early today and so when precip lighter this morning, sleet could mix in to LI/NYC but you should be good for several hours of 1/4S+BS and 1"/hour snowfall rates as the temps rise into the 30s...already above freezing parts of e LI. Not ideal lift in the dendrite zone for LI but good enough. No matter, take what you can get there. Tonight I see little way that is snows on LI as max lift has shifted nw of I95 and the deep ice nuclei seeding from CI is gone (dry slot) with the only hope that salt nuclei might be able to keep a little snow going there. I won't predict NYC since you started with 2" at midnight and have no idea what's on the ground there now. My guess at 5am might be near 5"? Total 12", maybe 18? I dunno. I've attached the WPC probs for 8+ and 18+ after 12z today. It's guidance and may be subject to error but I think it's correct on the bullseyes of what I think will end up pockets of 30" snow nw NJ/nse PA/se NYS. I expect 15-20 more inches between 6A and 10PM NNJ (especially Sussex/Passiac/Morris counties), ne PA near KMPO and interior se NYS with another half foot 10P tonight-sunrise Wednesday. Drifts to at least 4 feet ridges. Totals: near 30" expected in parts of NNJ/ne PA and se NYS by sunrise Wednesday. Damaging wind and I think big power outages this afternoon-evening from combined wet snow load of 6"snow on trees/wires and gusts probably 55-70 MPH on LI (even NYC though I think the 70MPH is reserved for ISP east.) and 40-55 MPH elsewhere in our forum just n and w of NYC. Coastal flooding: looks like 3-4 successive high tide cycles beginning late this morning-midday with the first minor or moderate, the midnightish tonight high tide moderate to major ; and then followed by two minors tomorrows high tide cycles. Graphics: 1) NWS 09z/1 ensemble prob 8+ after 7A 2) NWS 09z/1 ensemble prob 18+ after 7A 3) NWS 09z/1 collaborated STORM total snowfall which goes into their products. 4) NWS 09z/1 Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) which does not account for coastal flooding contribution.

NYC CP officially 2.0" yesterday. Jan 2.1 Presume that's not near the record low snow for Jan.

My first report since last eve... to Mt Holly and AMWX... Good morning Mt Holly! Splendid here in Wantage NJ 4sw. 3.8 total since SB 135P Sunday 1/31. Drifting is going to make measures a little more difficult...more samples. 17.2/15.8 right now with light but pretty big flake snow estimated 3/4mi vsby.

Wantage NJ 830P, first snow board clearance.. 0.8" Next measurement ~ 4a. 16F